Impact of Bathythermograph Temperature Bias Models on an Ocean Reanalysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin S. Giese ◽  
Gennady A. Chepurin ◽  
James A. Carton ◽  
Tim P. Boyer ◽  
Howard F. Seidel

Abstract Historical bathythermograph datasets are known to be biased, and there have been several efforts to model this bias. Three different correction models of temperature bias in the historical bathythermograph dataset are compared here: the steady model of Hanawa et al. and the time-dependent models of Levitus et al. and Wijffels et al. The impact of these different models is examined in the context of global analysis experiments using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation system. The results show that the two time-dependent bias models significantly reduce warm bias in global heat content, notably in the 10 years starting in the early 1970s and again in the early 1990s. Overall, the Levitus et al. model has its greatest impact near the surface and the Wijffels et al. model has its greatest impact at subtropical thermocline depths. Examination of the vertical structure of temperature error shows that at thermocline depths the Wijffels et al. model overcompensates, leading to a slight cool bias, while at shallow levels the same model causes a slight warm bias in the central and eastern subtropics and at thermocline depths on the equator in the Pacific Ocean as a result of reduced vertical entrainment. The results also show that the bias-correction models may alter the representation of interannual variability. During the 1997/98 El Niño and the subsequent La Niña the Levitus et al. model, which has its main impact at shallow depths, reduces the 50-m temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific by 10%–20% and strengthens the zonal currents by up to 50%. The Wijffels et al. correction, which has its main impact at deeper levels, has much less effect on the oceanic expression of ENSO.

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuefeng Zhang ◽  
Chaohui Sun ◽  
Chang Liu ◽  
Lianxin Zhang ◽  
Caixia Shao ◽  
...  

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) have been conducted to evaluate the effect of Argo data assimilation on ocean reanalysis in the Pacific region. The “truth” is obtained from a 5-year model integration from 2003 to 2007 based on the MIT general circulation model with the truly varying atmospheric forcing. The “observations” are the projections of the truth onto the observational network including ocean station data, CTD, and various BTs and Argo, by adding white noise to simulate observational errors. The data assimilation method employed is a sequential three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) scheme within a multigrid framework. Results show the interannual variability of temperature, salinity, and current fields can be reconstructed fairly well. The spread of temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region is also able to be reflected accurately when Argo data is assimilated, which may provide a reliable initial field for the forecast of temperature and currents for the subsurface in the tropical Pacific region. The adjustment of salinity by using T-S relationship is vital in the tropical Pacific region. However, the adjustment of salinity is almost meaningless in the northwest Pacific if Argo data is included during the reanalysis.


2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 701-734
Author(s):  
H. B. Dieng ◽  
A. Cazenave ◽  
K. von Schuckmann ◽  
M. Ablain ◽  
B. Meyssignac

Abstract. Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the residuals between observed global mean sea level (GMSL) and the sum of components (steric sea level and ocean mass) for the period January 2005 to December 2013. The objective is to identify the impact of errors in one or several components of the sea level budget on the residual time series. This is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions such as the contribution to sea level rise from the deep ocean (> 2000m). For that purpose, we use several data sets as processed by different groups: six altimetry products for the GMSL, four Argo products plus the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis for the steric sea level and three GRACE-based ocean mass products. We find that over the study time span, the observed trend differences in the residuals of the sea level budget can be as large as ~0.55mm yr−1. These trend differences essentially result from the processing of the altimetry data (e.g., choice the geophysical corrections and method of averaging the along-track altimetry data). At short time scale (from sub-seasonal to multi-annual), residual anomalies are significantly correlated with ocean mass and steric sea level anomalies (depending on the time span), indicating that the residual anomalies are related to errors in both GRACE-based ocean mass and Argo-based steric data. Efforts are needed to reduce these various sources of errors before using the sea level budget approach to estimate missing contributions such as the deep ocean heat content.


Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 789-802 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. B. Dieng ◽  
A. Cazenave ◽  
K. von Schuckmann ◽  
M. Ablain ◽  
B. Meyssignac

Abstract. Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the residuals between observed global mean sea level (GMSL) and the sum of components (steric sea level and ocean mass) for the period January 2005 to December 2013. The objective is to identify the impact of errors in one or several components of the sea level budget on the residual time series. This is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions such as the contribution to sea level rise from the deep ocean (depths not covered by observations). For that purpose, we use several data sets as processed by different groups: six altimetry products for the GMSL, four Argo products plus the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis for the steric sea level and three GRACE-based ocean mass products. We find that over the study time span, the observed differences in trend of the residuals of the sea level budget equation can be as large as ~ 0.55 mm yr−1 (i.e., ~ 17 % of the observed GMSL rate of rise). These trend differences essentially result from differences in trends of the GMSL time series. Using the ORAS4 reanalysis (providing complete geographical coverage of the steric sea level component), we also show that lack of Argo data in the Indonesian region leads to an overestimate of the absolute value of the residual trend by about 0.25 mm yr−1. Accounting for this regional contribution leads to closure of the sea level budget, at least for some GMSL products. At short timescales (from sub-seasonal to interannual), residual anomalies are significantly correlated with ocean mass and steric sea level anomalies (depending on the time span), suggesting that the residual anomalies are related to errors in both GRACE-based ocean mass and Argo-based steric data. Efforts are needed to reduce these various sources of errors before using the sea level budget approach to estimate missing contributions such as the deep ocean heat content.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7650-7661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Ding ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Wonsun Park ◽  
Rüdiger Gerdes

Abstract The use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model to hindcast (i.e., historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea ice and atmosphere components. Here it is shown that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. The authors argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (24) ◽  
pp. 8502-8523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Wolfgang Müller ◽  
Helmuth Haak ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of different ocean initialization strategies on the forecast skill of decadal prediction experiments performed with the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) coupled model. The ocean initializations assimilate three-dimensional temperature and salinity anomalies from two different ocean state estimates, the ocean reanalysis of the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) and an ensemble of MPI-OM ocean experiments forced with the NCEP–NCAR atmospheric reanalysis. The results show that North Atlantic and Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variations can be skillfully predicted up to a decade ahead and with greater skill than by both uninitialized simulations and persistence forecasts. The regional distribution of SST predictive skill is similar in both initialization approaches; however, higher skill is found for the NCEP hindcasts than for the GECCO hindcasts when a combination of predictive skill measures is used. Skillful predictions of surface air temperature are obtained over northwestern Europe, northern Africa, and central-eastern Asia. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region stands out as the region with the highest predictive skill beyond the warming trend, in both SST and upper-ocean heat-content predictions. Here the NCEP hindcasts deliver the best results due to a more accurate initialization of the observed variability. The dominant mechanism for North Atlantic climate predictability is of dynamical origin and can be attributed to the initialization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus explaining the reoccurrence of high predictive skill within the second pentad of the hindcasts experiments. The results herein demonstrate that ocean experiments forced with the observed history of the atmospheric state constitute a simple but successful alternative strategy for the initialization of skillful climate predictions over the next decade.


2020 ◽  
Vol 133 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-189
Author(s):  
Tae-Jin Song ◽  
Seung-Hun Oh ◽  
Jinkwon Kim

OBJECTIVECerebral aneurysms represent the most common cause of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. Statins are lipid-lowering agents that may expert multiple pleiotropic vascular protective effects. The authors hypothesized that statin therapy after coil embolization or surgical clipping of cerebral aneurysms might improve clinical outcomes.METHODSThis was a retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance Service–National Sample Cohort Database in Korea. Patients who underwent coil embolization or surgical clipping for cerebral aneurysm between 2002 and 2013 were included. Based on prescription claims, the authors calculated the proportion of days covered (PDC) by statins during follow-up as a marker of statin therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of the development of stroke, myocardial infarction, and all-cause death. Multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed.RESULTSA total of 1381 patients who underwent coil embolization (n = 542) or surgical clipping (n = 839) of cerebral aneurysms were included in this study. During the mean (± SD) follow-up period of 3.83 ± 3.35 years, 335 (24.3%) patients experienced the primary outcome. Adjustments were performed for sex, age (as a continuous variable), treatment modality, aneurysm rupture status (ruptured or unruptured aneurysm), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, household income level, and prior history of ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage as time-independent variables and statin therapy during follow-up as a time-dependent variable. Consistent statin therapy (PDC > 80%) was significantly associated with a lower risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 0.34, 95% CI 0.14–0.85).CONCLUSIONSConsistent statin therapy was significantly associated with better prognosis after coil embolization or surgical clipping of cerebral aneurysms.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.


Author(s):  
Amy E. Nivette ◽  
Renee Zahnow ◽  
Raul Aguilar ◽  
Andri Ahven ◽  
Shai Amram ◽  
...  

AbstractThe stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Echevarria ◽  
Zhong-Bo Kang ◽  
John Terry

Abstract We perform global fit to the quark Sivers function within the transverse momentum dependent (TMD) factorization formalism in QCD. We simultaneously fit Sivers asymmetry data from Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) at COMPASS, HERMES, and JLab, from Drell-Yan lepton pair production at COMPASS, and from W/Z boson at RHIC. This extraction is performed at next-to-leading order (NLO) and next-to-next-to leading logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy. We find excellent agreement between our extracted asymmetry and the experimental data for SIDIS and Drell-Yan lepton pair production, while tension arises when trying to describe the spin asymmetries of W/Z bosons at RHIC. We carefully assess the situation, and we study in details the impact of the RHIC data and their implications through different ways of performing the fit. In addition, we find that the quality of the description of W/Z vector boson asymmetry data could be strongly sensitive to the DGLAP evolution of Qiu-Sterman function, besides the usual TMD evolution. We present discussion on this and the implications for measurements of the transverse-spin asymmetries at the future Electron Ion Collider.


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