Climate Change Impacts on Jordan River Flow: Downscaling Application from a Regional Climate Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 860-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Samuels ◽  
Alon Rimmer ◽  
Andreas Hartmann ◽  
Simon Krichak ◽  
Pinhas Alpert

Abstract The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipitation (rain or snow) and its effect on streamflow in the Jordan River and its tributaries—the major water resources in the region. They found that the expected changes in the form of precipitation are nearly insignificant in terms of changing the timing of streamflow. Additionally, the results suggest a future increase in evaporation and decrease in average annual rainfall, supporting expected changes based on global models in this region.

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 1709-1727
Author(s):  
Inne Vanderkelen ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Klaus Keuler ◽  
Francois Rineau ◽  
...  

Abstract Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.


SOLA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 219-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Toshinori Aoyagi ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-138
Author(s):  
Fardin Saberi Louyeh ◽  
Bohlol Alijani ◽  
Shahriar Khaledi ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole B. Christensen ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier

Abstract. The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due to high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this review paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the picture from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model locally modifies the climate change signal relative to that in the stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.


SOLA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (0) ◽  
pp. 90-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Mitsuo Oh'izumi ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document