scholarly journals A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 1709-1727
Author(s):  
Inne Vanderkelen ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Klaus Keuler ◽  
Francois Rineau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Model Projection ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.

A new approach for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inne Vanderkelen ◽  
Jakob Zschleischler ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Klaus Keuler ◽  
Francois Rineau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future, preserving the co-variances between variables and the projected changes in variability. Here we present a new experimental design for studying climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron Experiment. The new methodology consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean temperature anomalies and uses data derived from the best available regional climate model (RCM) projection. We first identified the best performing regional climate model (RCM) simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European Domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble with a 0.11° (12.5 km) resolution based on two criteria: (i) highest skill of the simulations compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. Our results reveal that no single RCM simulation has the best score for all possible combinations of the four meteorological variables and evaluation metrics considered. Out of the six best performing simulations, we selected the simulation with the lowest bias for precipitation (CCLM4-8-17/EC-EARTH), as this variable is key to ecosystem functioning and model simulations deviated the most for this variable, with values ranging up to double the observed values. The time window is subsequently selected from the RCM projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean temperature of the driving Global Climate Model (GCM). The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the RCM projections of the five-year period spanning the year in which the global mean temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The gradient approach will allow to identify possible threshold and tipping points.

Climate Change Impacts on Jordan River Flow: Downscaling Application from a Regional Climate Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 860-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Samuels ◽  
Alon Rimmer ◽  
Andreas Hartmann ◽  
Simon Krichak ◽  
Pinhas Alpert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Jordan River ◽  
Response Models

Abstract The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipitation (rain or snow) and its effect on streamflow in the Jordan River and its tributaries—the major water resources in the region. They found that the expected changes in the form of precipitation are nearly insignificant in terms of changing the timing of streamflow. Additionally, the results suggest a future increase in evaporation and decrease in average annual rainfall, supporting expected changes based on global models in this region.

scholarly journals Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with Urban Canopy

SOLA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 219-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Toshinori Aoyagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

scholarly journals Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1097-1114 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Hingray ◽  
A. Mezghani ◽  
T. A. Buishand
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA). For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs) are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland) and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland). The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is often the largest source of uncertainty. In contrast, for temperature, the contribution of natural variability to the total variance of the scaling ratio is small, in particular for the annual mean values. Simulation from the probability distributions of global mean warming and the scaling ratio results in a wider range of regional temperature change than that in the regional climate model experiments. For the regional change in precipitation, however, a large proportion of the simulations (about 90%) is within the range of the regional climate model simulations.

scholarly journals Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

2017 ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
V. Khokhlov ◽  
N. Yermolenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Southern Ukraine

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Caspian Sea south coast future climate change estimations through regional climate model

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-138
Author(s):  
Fardin Saberi Louyeh ◽  
Bohlol Alijani ◽  
Shahriar Khaledi ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea Region until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole B. Christensen ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due to high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this review paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the picture from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model locally modifies the climate change signal relative to that in the stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.

scholarly journals Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

SOLA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (0) ◽  
pp. 90-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Mitsuo Oh'izumi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ensemble Simulations
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