scholarly journals Dynamics of Interannual Variability in Summer Precipitation over East Asia*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (20) ◽  
pp. 5435-5453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Temperature Advection ◽  
Svd Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

Abstract The summertime mei-yu–baiu rainband over East Asia displays considerable interannual variability. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis for interannual variability reveals that precipitation anomalies over the mei-yu–baiu region are accompanied by in situ anomalies of midtropospheric horizontal temperature advection. Anomalous warm (cool) advection causes increased (decreased) mei-yu–baiu precipitation locally by inducing adiabatic ascent (descent). The anomalous precipitation acts to reinforce the vertical motion, forming a feedback system. By this mechanism, the remotely forced anomalous atmospheric circulation can induce changes in mei-yu–baiu precipitation. The quasi-stationary precipitation anomalies induced by this mechanism are partially offset by transient eddies. The SVD analysis also reveals the association of mei-yu–baiu precipitation anomalies with several teleconnection patterns, suggesting remote induction mechanisms. The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, which is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical western North Pacific, contributes to mei-yu–baiu precipitation variability throughout the boreal summer. The PJ pattern mediates influences of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in preceding boreal winter on mei-yu–baiu precipitation. In early summer, the leading covariability pattern between precipitation and temperature advection also features the Silk Road pattern—a wave train along the summertime Asian jet—and another wave train pattern to the north along the polar-front jet that often leads to the development of the surface Okhotsk high.

scholarly journals Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 206
Author(s):  
Jieun Wie ◽  
Hyo-Jin Park ◽  
Hyomee Lee ◽  
Byung-Kwon Moon
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Western Pacific Subtropical High ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Near Surface

This study examined the variability of near-surface (850 hPa) ozone during summer in East Asia using simulations from 12 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of non-detrended ozone shows that the first (second) EOF mode is characterized by a monopole (dipole) structure that describe 83.3% (7.1%) of total variance. The corresponding the first principle component (PC1) time series exhibits a gradually increasing trend due to the rising anthropogenic emission, whereas PC2 shows interannual variation. To understand the drivers of this interannual variability, the detrended ozone is also analyzed. The two leading EOF patterns of detrended ozone, EOF1 and EOF2, explain 37.0% and 29.2% of the total variance, respectively. The regression results indicate that the positive ozone anomaly in East Asia associated with EOF1 is caused by the combination of net ozone production and transport from the upper atmosphere. In contrast, EOF2 is associated with the weakened western Pacific subtropical high during the La Niña decaying summer, which tends to decrease monsoon precipitation, thus increasing ozone concentration in China. Our results suggest that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a key role in driving interannual variability in tropospheric ozone in East Asia.

scholarly journals A Hydroclimatological Analysis of Precipitation in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna River Basin

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Curtis ◽  
Thomas Crawford ◽  
Munshi Rahman ◽  
Bimal Paul ◽  
M. Miah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The Ganges

Understanding seasonal precipitation input into river basins is important for linking large-scale climate drivers with societal water resources and the occurrence of hydrologic hazards such as floods and riverbank erosion. Using satellite data at 0.25-degree resolution, spatial patterns of monsoon (June-July-August-September) precipitation variability between 1983 and 2015 within the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basin are analyzed with Principal Component (PC) analysis and the first three modes (PC1, PC2 and PC3) are related to global atmospheric-oceanic fields. PC1 explains 88.7% of the variance in monsoonal precipitation and resembles climatology with the center of action over Bangladesh. The eigenvector coefficients show a downward trend consistent with studies reporting a recent decline in monsoon rainfall, but little interannual variability. PC2 explains 2.9% of the variance and shows rainfall maxima to the far western and eastern portions of the basin. PC2 has an apparent decadal cycle and surface and upper-air atmospheric height fields suggest the pattern could be forced by tropical South Atlantic heating and a Rossby wave train stemming from the North Atlantic, consistent with previous studies. Finally, PC3 explains 1.5% of the variance and has high spatial variability. The distribution of precipitation is somewhat zonal, with highest values at the southern border and at the Himalayan ridge. There is strong interannual variability associated with PC3, related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Next, we perform a hydroclimatological downscaling, as precipitation attributed to the three PCs was averaged over the Pfafstetter level-04 sub-basins obtained from the World Wildlife Fund (Gland, Switzerland). While PC1 was the principal contributor of rainfall for all sub-basins, PC2 contributed the most to rainfall in the western Ganges sub-basin (4524) and PC3 contributed the most to the rainfall in the northern Brahmaputra (4529). Monsoon rainfall within these two sub-basins were the only ones to show a significant relationship (negative) with ENSO, whereas four of the eight sub-basins had a significant relationship (positive) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. This work demonstrates a geographic dependence on climate teleconnections in the GBM that deserves further study.

scholarly journals A Precipitation-Based Index for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 805-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

AbstractCharacteristic patterns of precipitation-associated tropical intraseasonal oscillations, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), are identified using local empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data as a function of the day of the year. The explained variances of the EOF analysis show two peaks across the year: one in the middle of the boreal winter corresponding to the MJO and the other in the middle of summer corresponding to the BSISO. Comparing the fractional variance indicates that the BSISO is more coherent than the MJO during the TRMM period. Similar EOF analyses with the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) confirm this result and indicate that the BSISO is less coherent before the TRMM era (1979–98). In contrast, the MJO exhibits much less decadal variability. A precipitation-based index for tropical intraseasonal oscillation (PII) is derived by projecting bandpass-filtered precipitation anomalies to the two leading EOFs as a function of day of the year. A real-time version that approximates the PII is further developed using precipitation anomalies without any bandpass filtering. It is further shown that this real-time PII index may be used to diagnose precipitation in the subseasonal forecasts.

scholarly journals Dominant Interannual Covariations of the East Asian–Australian Land Precipitation during Boreal Winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3279-3296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
Second Mode ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe present study applies the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to investigate the interannual covariations of East Asian–Australian land precipitation (EAALP) during boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis datasets. The first mode of EAALP variations is characterized by opposite-sign anomalies between East Asia (EA) and Australia (AUS). The second mode features an anomaly pattern over EA similar to the first mode, but with a southwest–northeast dipole structure over AUS. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be a primary factor in modulating the interannual variations of land precipitation over EA and western AUS. By comparison, the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode (IOSD) plays an important role in the formation of precipitation anomalies over northeastern AUS, mainly through a zonal vertical circulation spanning from the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) to northern AUS. In addition, the ENSO-independent cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) impact the formation of the second mode. Using the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, three 40-yr numerical simulation experiments differing in specified SST forcings verify the impacts of the IOSD and WNP SST anomalies. Further composite analyses indicate that the dominant patterns of EAALP variability are largely determined by the out-of-phase and in-phase combinations of ENSO and IOSD. These results suggest that in addition to ENSO, IOSD should be considered as another crucial factor influencing the EAALP variability during the boreal winter, which has large implications for improved prediction of EAALP land precipitation on the interannual time scale.

scholarly journals Characterization of West African Jet Streams and Their Association to ENSO Events and Rainfall in ERA-Interim 1979–2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Churchill Okonkwo ◽  
Belay Demoz ◽  
Sium Tesfai
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
West African ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Sahel Region

The interannual variability of West African jet streams and their association with rainfall are reexamined using European Reanalysis ERA-Interim 1979–2011. The objective of the study is to characterize their climatology and role in rainfall variability in western Sahel. Wavelet analysis was used on wind speed data and implications to ENSO were discussed subsequently. Our results show that while the low-level African Westerly Jet (AWJ) correlates well with rainfall south of the equator in boreal winter months, the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and African Easterly Jet (AEJ) correlate better with rainfall north of the equator in the boreal summer months. Results of interannual-to-decadal variability in 200 mb, 600 mb, and 850 mb of zonal wind reveal that there is enhanced variability in the 2–8 year band. Also, the TEJ, AEJ, and AWJ fluctuations are coupled with variations in southern oscillation. Further analysis suggests a statistically significant association between TEJ and the El Niño events of the 1980s that led to intense drought in the Sahel region of West Africa. The 2007 moderate La Niña shows a statistically significant coherence with the 500 mb, 600 mb, and 850 mb jets. These associations are also phase locked, suggesting that the association may be more than by chance.

scholarly journals Water Vapor Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea: Seasonal and Interannual Variability and Associations with Rainfall

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1910-1922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez ◽  
David B. Enfield ◽  
Chidong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract The seasonal and interannual variability of moisture transports over the Intra-Americas Sea (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) is evaluated using the NCEP–NCAR global reanalysis. The seasonal variability of these moisture transports is consistent with previous studies and shows distinctive winter and summer regimes. Boreal winter moisture is mainly delivered to the central United States from the Pacific with some contribution from the Gulf of Mexico. It is during the boreal summer that the moisture flow over the Intra-Americas Sea is most effective in supplying the water vapor to the central United States via the northern branch of the Caribbean low-level jet. The increase of intensity of this jet during July is associated with an increase in evaporation over the Intra-Americas Sea, consistent with midsummer drought conditions over this region. During both summer and winter, the interannual variability of the inflow of moisture from the Intra-Americas Sea into central United States is associated with Caribbean low-level jet variability. The source of the varying moisture is mainly the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic area just east of the Bahamas Islands and the sink is precipitation over east-central United States. The main teleconnection pattern for these interannual variations appears to be the Pacific–North American, although in boreal winter ENSO and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation may also play a role. During boreal summer, associations with ENSO mainly involve the zonal moisture exchange between the Intra-Americas Sea/tropical Atlantic and the tropical Pacific.

Association of Convection with the 5-Day Rossby–Haurwitz Wave

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (9) ◽  
pp. 3309-3321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. King ◽  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Todd P. Lane
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
Marshall Islands ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Frequency Spectra

Abstract The seasonality, regionality, and nature of the association between tropical convection and the 5-day wavenumber-1 Rossby–Haurwitz wave are examined. Spectral coherences between daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), a proxy for convection, and 850-hPa zonal wind over the period January 1979–February 2013 are compared for different seasons and for phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Increased coherence, indicating a stronger association, occurs in boreal spring and autumn, with slightly reduced coherence in boreal summer and significantly reduced coherence in boreal winter. The regionality of the association is examined using lagged-regression techniques. Significant local signals in tropical convection are found over West Africa, the tropical Andes, the eastern Pacific Ocean, and the Marshall Islands. The relative phasing between the 5-day wave wind and OLR signals is in quadrature in Africa and the Marshall Islands, in phase with easterlies over the Andes, and out of phase with easterlies over the eastern Pacific. Frequency spectra of precipitation averaged over the identified local regions reveal spectral peaks in the 4–6-day range. The phasing between the large-scale wind and local convection signals suggests that the 5-day wave is actively modulating the convection around the Americas.

scholarly journals Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wet and Dry Spells over Two Urban Regions in the Western Maritime Continent

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1579-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep V. Mandapaka ◽  
Xiaosheng Qin ◽  
Edmond Yat-Man Lo
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Urban Regions ◽  
Seasonal And Interannual Variability ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Spell Length ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract Daily rainfall data from two urban regions in Southeast Asia are analyzed to study seasonal and interannual variability of wet and dry spells. The analysis is carried out using 35 years of data from Singapore and 23 years of data from Jakarta. The frequency distribution of wet (dry) spells and their relative contribution to the total number of wet (dry) days and to the total rainfall are studied using 15 statistical indicators. At the annual scale, Singapore has a greater number of wet spells and a larger mean wet spell length compared to Jakarta. However, both cities have equal probability of extreme wet spells. Seasonal-scale analysis shows that Singapore is drier (wetter) than Jakarta during boreal winter (summer). The probability of extreme wet spells is lower (higher) for Singapore than Jakarta during boreal winter (summer). The results show a stronger contrast between Singapore and Jakarta during boreal summer. The study also examined the time series of Singapore wet and dry spell indicators for the presence of interannual trends. The results indicate statistically significant upward trends for a majority of wet spell indicators. The wet day percentage and mean wet spell length are increasing at 2.0% decade−1 and 0.18 days decade−1, respectively. Analysis of dynamic and thermodynamic variables from ERA-Interim during the study period indicates a strengthening of low-level convergence and vertical motion and an increase in specific humidity and atmospheric instability (convective available potential energy), which explain the increasing trends observed in Singapore wet spell indicators.

scholarly journals Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall at the Global Scale

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 359-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdou Khouakhi ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data

This study quantifies the relative contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) to annual, seasonal, and extreme rainfall and examines the connection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of extreme TC-induced rainfall across the globe. The authors use historical 6-h best-track TC datasets and daily precipitation data from 18 607 global rain gauges with at least 25 complete years of data between 1970 and 2014. The highest TC-induced rainfall totals occur in East Asia (>400 mm yr−1) and northeastern Australia (>200 mm yr−1), followed by the southeastern United States and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (100–150 mm yr−1). Fractionally, TCs account for 35%–50% of the mean annual rainfall in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines, and Baja California, Mexico. Seasonally, between 40% and 50% of TC-induced rain is recorded along the western coast of Australia and in islands of the south Indian Ocean in the austral summer and in East Asia and Mexico in boreal summer and fall. In terms of extremes, using annual maximum and peak-over-threshold approaches, the highest proportions of TC-induced rainfall are found in East Asia, followed by Australia and North and Central America, with fractional contributions generally decreasing farther inland from the coast. The relationship between TC-induced extreme rainfall and ENSO reveals that TC-induced extreme rainfall tends to occur more frequently in Australia and along the U.S. East Coast during La Niña and in East Asia and the northwestern Pacific islands during El Niño.

scholarly journals Contributions of Different Combinations of the IPO and AMO to the Concurrent Variations of Summer East Asian Jets

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 7967-7982
Author(s):  
Xiucheng Xiao ◽  
Danqing Huang ◽  
Ben Yang ◽  
Jian Zhu ◽  
Peiwen Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
The North

ABSTRACTHuang et al. recently reported that opposite phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can affect the shift of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in the boreal winter. To give a full image of the relationship among the IPO, AMO, and concurrent variation of jets throughout the whole year, this study investigates the changes in summer jets response to the combinations of the IPO and AMO, and mostly focuses on the quantitative analysis in the role of the IPO and AMO. Both of the diagnostic analysis and atmospheric model simulations confirm that combinations of the negative phase of the IPO (“−IPO”) and the positive phase of the AMO (“+AMO”) can significantly enhance the EAPJ and reduce the EASJ in the summer, via the meridional temperature gradient and the Eady growth rate, and vice versa in the “+IPO −AMO” combination. The reanalysis data show that this relationship is particularly evident between the periods of 1999–2014 and 1979–98. Based on the simulations, the multilinear regression has indicated that −IPO plays a more important role than +AMO, particularly for the reduced EASJ. We have further revealed two pathways of the stationary Rossby wave activity anomaly, eastward from the North Atlantic to East Asia along 60°N and westward from the North Pacific to East Asia along 40°N. The two activities are associated with anomalous anticyclone along the active regions between EAPJ and EASJ, and therefore affect the jet variations.

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