FACETs: A Proposed Next-Generation Paradigm for High-Impact Weather Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2025-2043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lans P. Rothfusz ◽  
Russell Schneider ◽  
David Novak ◽  
Kimberly Klockow-McClain ◽  
Alan E. Gerard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
National Research Council ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Environmental Threats ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Communication Paradigm ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Comprehensive Framework

AbstractRecommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and Weather-Ready Nation workshop participants have encouraged the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the broader weather enterprise to explore and expand the use of probabilistic information to convey weather forecast uncertainty. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a concept being explored by NOAA to address those recommendations and also potentially shift the National Weather Service (NWS) from (primarily) teletype-era, deterministic watch–warning products to high-resolution, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) spanning periods from days (and longer) to within minutes of high-impact weather and water events. FACETs simultaneously i) considers a reinvention of the NWS hazard forecasting and communication paradigm so as to deliver multiscale, user-specific probabilistic guidance from numerical weather prediction ensembles and ii) provides a comprehensive framework to organize the physical, social, and behavioral sciences, the technology, and the practices needed to achieve that reinvention. The first applications of FACETs have focused on thunderstorm phenomena, but the FACETs concept is envisioned to extend to the attributes of any environmental hazards that can be described probabilistically (e.g., winter, tropical, and aviation weather). This paper introduces the FACETs vision, the motivation for its creation, the research and development under way to explore that vision, its relevance to operational forecasting and society, and possible strategies for implementation.

scholarly journals EUMETNET SRNWPEPS-EPS project and convection-permitting LAM-EPS database

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfons Callado-Pallarès
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Mesoscale Convection ◽  
Air Turbulence ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
Ensemble Performance ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Ensemble Systems

<p>SRNWP-EPS module/project into EUMETNET NWP Cooperation Programme has as main goals facilitating and coordinating the cooperation on developing reliable mesoscale convection-permitting ensemble systems (LAM-EPS) in Europe, and, at the same time, grouping efforts developing tools which can be smoothly applied to any LAM-EPS. This is motivated by the fact that the development of LAM-EPS capabilities in Europe is crucial for forecasting a range of weather phenomena and in particular for improving HIW (High Impact Weather) prediction. Due   to the latter, the current SRNWP-EPS 2019-2023 phase is focused on extreme events.</p><p>The project results as a survey on products for high-impact weather forecasting and the R2O (Research to Operations) LAM-EPS applications will be presented. The three main R2O forecasting tools developed as project requirements are: calibration of daily and  12 hours extremes for variables such as 10 metres maximum wind gusts, maximum accumulated precipitation, maximum and minimum2m temperatures; the forecasting post-processing LAM-EPS products devoted to HIW forecasting and focused on aeronautics such as icing, thunderstorms’ diagnostic and classification, clear-air turbulence and fog; and tools to apply in an affordable way an Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tales Index (SOT) on LAM-EPSs.</p><p>Moreover, an off-line database of European convection-permitting LAM-EPS ensembles has been established at ECMWF, which archives convection related parameters close to the surface. The aim of LAM-EPS database is to foster coordinate research and collaborations around LAM-EPSs in order to improve HIW events bringing together all European LAM-NWP consortia (ALADIN, HIRLAM, COSMO, LACE, MetOffice partners, etc.). At the time of writing, nine participants are currently archiving since 1<sup>st</sup> of June of 2020: MOGREPS-UK (MetOffice), MEPS (MetCoOp), <em>γ</em>SREPS (AEMET), IT-EPS (ItAF-REMET), IREPS (Met Éireann), COMEPS (DMI), MF-AromeEps (MétéoFrance), RMI-EPS (RMI) and ICON-D2-EPS (DWD). The SRNWP-EPS convection-permitting LAM-EPS database is currently being used by project research sub-groups, for example to check multi-ensemble performance or comparing two LAM-EPSs in their common overlapping area.</p>

scholarly journals The alternative of CubeSat-based advanced infrared and microwave sounders for high impact weather forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenglong LI ◽  
Jun LI ◽  
Timothy J. SCHMIT ◽  
Pei WANG ◽  
Agnes LIM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
High Impact ◽  
High Impact Weather

Diagnosing factors in parameterised and resolved convection with physical tendency output in AROME-Arctic during a Cold-Air Outbreak event

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Kähnert ◽  
Teresa M. Valkonen ◽  
Harald Sodemann
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
High Impact Weather

<p>Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models generally display comparatively low predictive skill in the Arctic. Particularly, the large impact of sub-grid scale, parameterised processes, such as surface fluxes, radiation or cloud microphysics during high-latitude weather events pose a substantial challenge for numerical modelling. Such processes are most influential during mesoscale weather events, such as polar lows, often embedded in cold air outbreaks (CAO), some of which cause high impact weather. Uncertainty in Arctic weather forecasts is thus critically dependent on parameterised processes. The strong influence from several parameterised processes also makes model forecasts particularly susceptible to compensation of errors from different parameterisations, which potentially limits model improvement.<br>Here we analyse model output of individual parameterised tendencies of wind, temperature and humidity during Arctic high-impact weather in AROME-Arctic, the operational NWP model used by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norway for the European Arctic. Individual tendencies describe the contribution of each applied physical parameterisation to a respective variable per model time step. We study a CAO-event taking place during 24 - 27 December 2015. This intense and widespread CAO event, reaching from the Fram Straight to Norway and affecting a particularly large portion of the Nordic seas at a time, was characterised by strong heat fluxes along the sea ice edge. <br>Model intern definitions for boundary layer type become apparent as a decisive factor in tendency contributions. Especially the interplay between the dual mass flux and the turbulence scheme is of essence here. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, featuring a run without shallow convection and a run with a new statistical cloud scheme, show how a physically similar result is obtained by substantially different tendencies in the model.</p>

scholarly journals THORPEX Research and the Science of Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 807-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. B. Parsons ◽  
M. Beland ◽  
D. Burridge ◽  
P. Bougeault ◽  
G. Brunet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Program ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
High Impact Weather

Abstract The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) was a 10-yr, international research program organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Program. THORPEX was motivated by the need to accelerate the rate of improvement in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week forecasts of high-impact weather for the benefit of society, the economy, and the environment. THORPEX, which took place from 2005 to 2014, was the first major international program focusing on the advancement of global numerical weather prediction systems since the Global Atmospheric Research Program, which took place almost 40 years earlier, from 1967 through 1982. The scientific achievements of THORPEX were accomplished through bringing together scientists from operational centers, research laboratories, and the academic community to collaborate on research that would ultimately advance operational predictive skill. THORPEX included an unprecedented effort to make operational products readily accessible to the broader academic research community, with community efforts focused on problems where challenging science intersected with the potential to accelerate improvements in predictive skill. THORPEX also collaborated with other major programs to identify research areas of mutual interest, such as topics at the intersection of weather and climate. THORPEX research has 1) increased our knowledge of the global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution, and predictability of high-impact weather; 2) provided insight into how predictive skill depends on observing strategies and observing systems; 3) improved data assimilation and ensemble forecast systems; 4) advanced knowledge of high-impact weather associated with tropical and polar circulations and their interactions with midlatitude flows; and 5) expanded society’s use of weather information through applied and social science research.

scholarly journals The science-policy interface – in need for "society" as a third component

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jutta Thielen-del Pozo ◽  
Lise Autogena ◽  
Joshua Portway ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Science Policy ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Science Policy Interface ◽  
A Performance

<p>The European Union is funding research through so-called framework programmes (FPs), the financial and strategic tools to stimulate excellence, innovation, economic growth and creation of jobs across Europe. The allocated research budgets increased considerably from less than 4 billion Euro for FP1 (4 years) to 100 billion for Horizon Europe (FP9, 7 years), demonstrating the strategic importance that is being attributed to research and development for a strong and competitive Europe. The upcoming framework programme Horizon Europe will add a new level of ambition for the scientific, economic as well as societal impact of EU funding and address global challenges that affect the quality of our daily lives.</p><p>However, if societal issues that affect our everyday lives are to be addressed effectively in research and to drive the necessary innovation process in view of a better future, then the third component at the science-policy interface must be “society”. Robust data, facts and evidences represent an important input to policy making in addition to other inputs and considerations. Scientists and policy makers must therefore not only network amongst their communities and experts but also interact with the public and engage in dialogue with citizens in order to first understand what the concerns and issues are and later to explain the solutions.</p><p>The Joint Research Centre has engaged in an Art, Science and Society programme to fill this gap. Artists are invited to the JRC to co-develop projects with the scientists under a specific theme – in 2015 the topic was “Food”, in 2017 “Fairness” and in 2019 “Big Data, Digital Transformation and Artificial Intelligence”. The final works are exhibited during the so-called Resonances Festival.</p><p>This presentation illustrates at the example of the Resonances III installation “Weather Prediction by Numerical Process - a forecast for Europe” by artists Lise Autogena and Joshua Portway in collaboration with the co-authors, the added value of this approach. The installation is a performance inspired by the work of L.F. Richardson (1881–1953), a truly multi-disciplinary scientist, who contributed to finite difference solutions of partial differential equations, turbulent flow and diffusion, also fractals, and the cause and evolution of conflicts. He was particularly visionary in his work on designing a numerical scheme for weather forecasting. While serving as ambulance driver during WWI, he performed the calculation for a weather forecast for Europe “by hand”. Even if the result of his years of calculations resulted in a wrong forecast because the numerical solution was not stable, the methodology for numerical weather forecast was born and today’s weather forecasts follow largely the same method – just with infinite more computing power. Richardson estimated that 64000 scientists, working together in a big orchestrated calculation, would be needed to calculate the weather in real-time.</p><p>The chosen format for the art installation is a performance, ritualistically re-enacting a small part of this epic calculation, drawing the audience into a multi-faceted discussion on the relevance of Richardson’s legacy today in the times of super computing and climate change.</p>

scholarly journals A Proposed Model-Based Methodology for Feature-Specific Prediction for High-Impact Weather

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob R. Carley ◽  
Benjamin R. J. Schwedler ◽  
Michael E. Baldwin ◽  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
John Kwiatkowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Specific Prediction ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Verification Methodology

Abstract A feature-specific forecasting method for high-impact weather events that takes advantage of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models and spatial forecast verification methodology is proposed. An application of this method to the prediction of a severe convective storm event is given.

scholarly journals Improving Communication of Uncertainty and Risk of High-Impact Weather Through Innovative Forecaster Workshops

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Rosemary Auld ◽  
Kenneth Johnson ◽  
Christine O’Connell ◽  
Temis G. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Services ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Tv Media ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Oral Presentations

AbstractIt is challenging to communicate uncertainty for high-impact weather events to the public and decision makers. As a result, there is an increased emphasis and training within the National Weather Service (NWS) for “impact-based decision support.” A Collaborative Science, Technology, And Research (CSTAR) project led by Stony Brook University (SBU) in collaboration with the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science, several NWS forecast offices, and NWS operational centers held two workshops at SBU on effective forecast communication of probabilistic information for high-impact weather. Trainers in two 1.5-day workshops helped 15-20 forecasters learn to distill their messages, engage audiences, and more effectively communicate risk and uncertainty to decision makers, media, and the general public. The novel aspect of the first workshop focused on using improvisational techniques to connect with audiences along with exercises to improve communication skills using short, clear, conversational statements. The same forecasters participated in the second workshop, which focused on matching messages to intended audiences and stakeholder interaction. Using a recent high-impact weather event, representatives in emergency management, TV media, departments of transportation, and emergency services provided feedback on the forecaster oral presentations (2-3 minute) and a visual slide. This article describes our innovative workshop approach, illustrates some of the techniques used, and highlights participant feedback.

WMO Research Demonstration Project “Paris 2024 Olympic Games“ : An international initiative towards 100m-resolution meteorological and air quality forecasting in urban areas 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valéry Masson ◽  
Estelle de Coning ◽  
Alexander Baklanov ◽  
Jorge Amorim ◽  
Clotilde Augros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Heat Islands ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Scientific Questions

<p>The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) “promotes international and interdisciplinary research for more accurate and reliable forecasts from minutes to seasons, expanding the frontiers of weather science to enhance society’s resilience to high-impact weather and the value of weather information for users. In the 2016-2023 WWRP implementation plan, activities focus on 4 challenges: High-Impact Weather, Water, Urbanization, Evolving technologies. Furthermore, the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Urban Research Meteorology and Environment (GURME) focus on the development of models and associated research activities to enhance the capabilities in providing urban-environmental forecasting and air quality services, illustrating the linkages between meteorology and air quality (https://public.wmo.int/en/programmes).</p><p>This talk presents an international Research Demonstration Project (RDP), that will focus on international research on scientific urban issues addressed by both WWRP and GURME. The strategic objective of this RDP is to focus on the Olympic Games of Paris in 2024 in order to advance research on the theme of the “future Meteorological Forecasting systems at 100m (or finer) resolution for urban areas”. Such systems would prefigure the numerical weather prediction at the horizon 2030. The focus will be on themes related to extreme weather events in summer which both are influenced by and impacts urbanization: thunderstorms and strong Urban Heat Islands, and their consequences.</p><p>There are 5 scientific questions that will be addressed during this Paris RDP:</p><ul><li>Nowcasting & Numerical Weather Prediction in cities at order 100m resolution</li> <li>High resolution thunderstorm nowcasting (probabilistic and deterministic) in the urban environment,  Urban heat islands, cool areas and air quality</li> <li>Nowcasting and forecast in coastal cities (for the Marseilles site)</li> <li>How to improve and better use observational networks in urban areas, including (big) non-conventional data</li> <li>Conception and Communication of tailored weather, climate, environmental information at infra-urban resolution.</li> </ul><p>Several High-Impact weather case studies were selected. Storm cases (starting with one the 10th July 2017) will allow to evaluate the role of the urban area on their enhancement. Extreme Heat wave aggravated by a strong Urban Heat Island are also studied (July 2019). Open urban data describing the agglomerations at very high resolution are provided. New innovative methods to produce maps of urban form characteristics (e.g. from street images) and meteorological data (from personal meteorological stations) will be explored.</p><p>This talk will describe these scientific questions, as well as the common methodology approach that is being discussed within the partners. A focus will be the international experimental campaign that will take place in 2022 over the Paris agglomeration, with an Intensive Observation Period in the summer 2022. Interactions between urban surface and the atmospheric boundary layer, the interactions between air quality and aerosols between city and biogenic plumes, and the local effect of urban trees on micro-climate and chemistry are some of the axes of the campaign. It will provide additional meteorological and air quality observations, to both help to improve the nowcasting and NWP systems at urban scale, and aim to define the required additional instrumentation that should be deployed during the Olympics games themselves.</p>

scholarly journals Towards IASI-New Generation (IASI-NG): impact of improved spectral resolution and radiometric noise on the retrieval of thermodynamic, chemistry and climate variables

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 4367-4385 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Crevoisier ◽  
C. Clerbaux ◽  
V. Guidard ◽  
T. Phulpin ◽  
R. Armante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Resolution ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Detection Threshold ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
New Instrument ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. Besides their strong contribution to weather forecast improvement through data assimilation, thermal infrared sounders onboard polar-orbiting platforms are now playing a key role for monitoring atmospheric composition changes. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument developed by the French space agency (CNES) and launched by EUMETSAT onboard the Metop satellite series is providing essential inputs for weather forecasting and pollution/climate monitoring owing to its smart combination of large horizontal swath, good spectral resolution and high radiometric performance. EUMETSAT is currently preparing the next polar-orbiting program (EPS-SG) with the Metop-SG satellite series that should be launched around 2020. In this framework, CNES is studying the concept of a new instrument, the IASI-New Generation (IASI-NG), characterized by an improvement of both spectral and radiometric characteristics as compared to IASI, with three objectives: (i) continuity of the IASI/Metop series; (ii) improvement of vertical resolution; and (iii) improvement of the accuracy and detection threshold for atmospheric and surface components. In this paper, we show that an improvement of spectral resolution and radiometric noise fulfil these objectives by leading to (i) a better vertical coverage in the lower part of the troposphere, thanks to the increase in spectral resolution; and (ii) an increase in the accuracy of the retrieval of several thermodynamic, climate and chemistry variables, thanks to the improved signal-to-noise ratio as well as less interference between the signatures of the absorbing species in the measured radiances. The detection limit of several atmospheric species is also improved. We conclude that IASI-NG has the potential to strongly benefit the numerical weather prediction, chemistry and climate communities now connected through the European GMES/Copernicus initiative.

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