scholarly journals The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. E1653-E1676 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Kirstin Werner ◽  
Barbara Casati ◽  
Jordan G. Powers ◽  
Irina V. Gorodetskaya ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) had a special observing period (SOP) that ran from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019, a period chosen to span the austral warm season months of greatest operational activity in the Antarctic. Some 2,200 additional radiosondes were launched during the 3-month SOP, roughly doubling the routine program, and the network of drifting buoys in the Southern Ocean was enhanced. An evaluation of global model forecasts during the SOP and using its data has confirmed that extratropical Southern Hemisphere forecast skill lags behind that in the Northern Hemisphere with the contrast being greatest between the southern and northern polar regions. Reflecting the application of the SOP data, early results from observing system experiments show that the additional radiosondes yield the greatest forecast improvement for deep cyclones near the Antarctic coast. The SOP data have been applied to provide insights on an atmospheric river event during the YOPP-SH SOP that presented a challenging forecast and that impacted southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula. YOPP-SH data have also been applied in determinations that seasonal predictions by coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice models struggle to capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Antarctic sea ice minimum. Education, outreach, and communication activities have supported the YOPP-SH SOP efforts. Based on the success of this Antarctic summer YOPP-SH SOP, a winter YOPP-SH SOP is being organized to support explorations of Antarctic atmospheric predictability in the austral cold season when the southern sea ice cover is rapidly expanding.

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (15) ◽  
pp. 5775-5790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew H. England ◽  
David K. Hutchinson ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Willem P. Sijp

The response of the global climate system to Drake Passage (DP) closure is examined using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model. Unlike most previous studies, a full three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model is included with a complete hydrological cycle and a freely evolving wind field, as well as a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice module. Upon DP closure the initial response is found to be consistent with previous ocean-only and intermediate-complexity climate model studies, with an expansion and invigoration of the Antarctic meridional overturning, along with a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production. This results in a dominance of Southern Ocean poleward geostrophic flow and Antarctic sinking when DP is closed. However, within just a decade of DP closure, the increased southward heat transport has melted back a substantial fraction of Antarctic sea ice. At the same time the polar oceans warm by 4°–6°C on the zonal mean, and the maximum strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies weakens by ≃10%. These effects, not captured in models without ice and atmosphere feedbacks, combine to force Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to warm and freshen, to the point that this water mass becomes less dense than NADW. This leads to a marked contraction of the Antarctic overturning, allowing NADW to ventilate the abyssal ocean once more. Poleward heat transport settles back to very similar values as seen in the unperturbed DP open case. Yet remarkably, the equilibrium climate in the closed DP configuration retains a strong Southern Hemisphere warming, similar to past studies with no dynamic atmosphere. However, here it is ocean–atmosphere–ice feedbacks, primarily the ice-albedo feedback and partly the weakened midlatitude jet, not a vigorous southern sinking, which maintain the warm polar oceans. This demonstrates that DP closure can drive a hemisphere-scale warming with polar amplification, without the presence of any vigorous Southern Hemisphere overturning circulation. Indeed, DP closure leads to warming that is sufficient over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to inhibit ice-sheet growth. This highlights the importance of the DP gap, Antarctic sea ice, and the associated ice-albedo feedback in maintaining the present-day glacial state over Antarctica.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9393-9408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Houk Paek ◽  
Eric S. Saltzman ◽  
Tong Lee

Abstract This study uncovers an early 1990s change in the relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two leading modes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric variability: the southern annular mode (SAM) and the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern. During austral spring, while the PSA maintained a strong correlation with ENSO throughout the period 1948–2014, the SAM–ENSO correlation changed from being weak before the early 1990s to being strong afterward. Through the ENSO connection, PSA and SAM became more in-phase correlated after the early 1990s. The early 1990s is also the time when ENSO changed from being dominated by the eastern Pacific (EP) type to being dominated by the central Pacific (CP) type. Analyses show that, while the EP ENSO can excite only the PSA, the CP ENSO can excite both the SAM and PSA through tropospheric and stratospheric pathway mechanisms. The more in-phase relationship between SAM and PSA impacted the post-1990s Antarctic climate in at least two aspects: 1) a stronger Antarctic sea ice dipole structure around the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas due to intensified geopotential height anomalies over the region and 2) a shift in the phase relationships of surface air temperature anomalies among East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. These findings imply that ENSO–Antarctic climate relations depend on the dominant ENSO type and that ENSO forcing has become more important to the Antarctic sea ice and surface air temperature variability in the past two decades and will in the coming decades if the dominance of CP ENSO persists.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zheng ◽  
Chunxia Zhou ◽  
Tingjun Zhang ◽  
Qi Liang ◽  
Kang Wang

Abstract. Surface snowmelt in the pan-Antarctic, including the Antarctic sea ice and ice sheet, is crucial to the mass and energy balance in polar regions and can serve as an indicator of climate change. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the surface snowmelt over the entire pan-Antarctic as a whole from 2002 to 2017 by using the passive microwave remote sensing data. The stable orbit and appropriate acquisition time of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) enable us to take full advantage of the daily brightness temperature (Tb) variations to detect the surface snowmelt events. In this study, diurnal amplitude variations of AMSR-E/2 vertically polarized 36.5 GHz Tb (DAV36V) were utilized to map the pan-Antarctic snowmelt because it is unaffected by the snow metamorphism. We validated the DAV36V method against the ground-based measurements and further improved the method over the marginal sea ice zone by excluding the effect of open water. Snowmelt detected by AMSR-E/2 data agreed well with that derived by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and much more extensive than that detected by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. On average, pan-Antarctic snowmelt began on 19 September, and experienced 32 melt events. Annual mean melt extent on the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was only 9 % of that on the Antarctic sea ice. Overall, the pan-Antarctic surface snowmelt showed a trend (at 95 % confidence level) toward later melt onset (0.70 days yr−1) during the 2002–2017 period. Surface snowmelt was well correlated with atmospheric indices in some regions. Notably, the decreasing surface snowmelt on the AIS was very likely linked with the enhancing summer Southern Annular Mode.


2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (69) ◽  
pp. 18-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Simmonds

AbstractWe examine the evolution of sea-ice extent (SIE) over both polar regions for 35 years from November 1978 to December 2013, as well as for the global total ice (Arctic plus Antarctic). Our examination confirms the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice, and we find significant (p˂ 0.001) negative trends in all months, seasons and in the annual mean. The greatest rate of decrease occurs in September, and corresponds to a loss of 3 x 106 km2 over 35 years. The Antarctic shows positive trends in all seasons and for the annual mean (p˂0.01), with summer attaining a reduced significance (p˂0.10). Based on our longer record (which includes the remarkable year 2013) the positive Antarctic ice trends can no longer be considered ‘small’, and the positive trend in the annual mean of (15.29 ± 3.85) x 103 km2 a–1 is almost one-third of the magnitude of the Arctic annual mean decrease. The global annual mean SIE series exhibits a trend of (–35.29 ± 5.75) x 103 km2 a-1 (p<0.01). Finally we offer some thoughts as to why the SIE trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations differ from the observed Antarctic increases.


2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline Bertlich ◽  
Nikolaus Gussone ◽  
Jasper Berndt ◽  
Heinrich F. Arlinghaus ◽  
Gerhard S. Dieckmann

AbstractThis study presents culture experiments of the cold water species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) and provides new insights into the incorporation of elements in foraminiferal calcite of common and newly established proxies for paleoenvironmental applications (shell Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Na/Ca). Specimens were collected from sea ice during the austral winter in the Antarctic Weddell Sea and subsequently cultured at different salinities and a constant temperature. Incorporation of the fluorescent dye calcein showed new chamber formation in the culture at salinities of 30, 31, and 69. Cultured foraminifers at salinities of 46 to 83 only revealed chamber wall thickening, indicated by the fluorescence of the whole shell. Signs of reproduction and the associated gametogenic calcite were not observed in any of the culture experiments. Trace element analyses were performed using an electron microprobe, which revealed increased shell Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Na/Ca values at higher salinities, with Mg/Ca showing the lowest sensitivity to salinity changes. This study enhances the knowledge about unusually high element concentrations in foraminifera shells from high latitudes. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma appears to be able to calcify in the Antarctic sea ice within brine channels, which have low temperatures and exceptionally high salinities due to ongoing sea ice formation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 223 (2) ◽  
pp. 675-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fraser Kennedy ◽  
Andrew Martin ◽  
John P. Bowman ◽  
Richard Wilson ◽  
Andrew McMinn

Author(s):  
Mathilde Jutras ◽  
Martin Vancoppenolle ◽  
Antonio Lourenço ◽  
Frédéric Vivier ◽  
Gauthier Carnat ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Melsheimer ◽  
Gunnar Spreen

&lt;p&gt;The changing sea ice cover of polar seas is of key importance for the exchange of heat and moisture between atmosphere and ocean and hence for weather and climate, and in addition, the sea ice and its long-term changes are &amp;#160;an indicator for global change. &amp;#160;In order to properly understand and model the evolution of the sea ice cover and its interaction with the global climate system, we need detailed knowledge about sea ice, i.e., not only its extent, but also, e.g., its thickness and its type.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We can broadly distinguish a few different sea ice types that have different dynamic and thermodynamic properties, namely: young ice (YI, thin/smooth new ice), first-year ice (FYI, formed during one cold season), and multiyear ice (MYI, which has survived at least one melt season). The&amp;#160; latter is of particular interest as it is usually thicker than other ice types (thus, takes more time to melt), much less saline, and may accommodate a unique ecosystem. Sea ice types in the Antarctic, until recently, have not been monitored much because of the lack of appropriate remote&amp;#160; sensing methods. While the Antarctic sea ice is greatly dominated by FYI, there are, nevertheless, considerable amounts of MYI, in particular in the Weddell Sea.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We have recently adapted an algorithm for the detection of Arctic sea ice types for application in the Antarctic. The algorithm uses data from space-borne microwave radiometers and scatterometers as input. So far we have compiled a time series of daily Antarctic MYI data (and also an estimate of YI and FYI) data at a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, starting in 2013, but excluding the melt seasons when the algorithm does not work. Here give an overview of the data, showing, e.g., the quite large interannual variability of MYI and its evolution in the Weddell Sea, and discuss shortcomings of the algorithm and possible ways forward. The time series of daily Antarctic MYI data can in principle be extended backwards to the year 2000, when the used satellite data first became available, and with planned future satellite missions, it can be continued for years to come.&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tristan Rendfrey ◽  
Ashley Payne

&lt;div&gt;&lt;span&gt;Climatic changes induce many significant changes to long standing weather patterns. These mechanisms interact to drive consequences that may not be immediately obvious. One such connection involves the apparent relationship between polar sea ice extent and mid-latitude precipitation timing and location. This correlation, its mechanisms, and possible influences on weather are decently understood with respect to the Northern Hemisphere. However, the analogous relation for the Southern Hemisphere has been less studied. This provides an opportunity to examine connections between polar conditions and mid-latitude weather.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;span&gt;We explore the teleconnection between sea ice extent and lower latitude precipitation over the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate this relationship through observations of sea ice coverage using ICESat and ICESat-2 compared with reanalysis data via MERRA-2 in order to understand the variability of sea ice extent and its impact on midlatitude precipitation over the Southern Hemisphere. This study particularly examines the importance of seasonality and regional variations of the relationship.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/div&gt;


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