scholarly journals Data-driven analysis of climate change in Saudi Arabia: trends in temperature extremes and human comfort indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Odnoletkova ◽  
Tadeusz W. Patzek
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends

AbstractWe have analyzed the long-term temperature trends and extreme temperature events in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2019. Our study relies on the high resolution, consistent and complete ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We evaluated linear trends in several climate descriptors, including temperature, dewpoint temperature, thermal comfort and extreme event indices. Previous works on this topic used data from weather station observations over limited time intervals and did not include temperature data for recent years. The years 2010-2019 have been the warmest decade ever observed by instrumental temperature monitoring and comprise the eight warmest years on record. Therefore the earlier results may be incomplete and their results no longer relevant. Our findings indicate that over the past four decades, Saudi Arabia has warmed up at a rate that is 50% higher than the rest of land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, moisture content of the air has significantly increased in the region. The increases of temperature and humidity have resulted in the soaring of dew point temperature and thermal discomfort across the country. These increases are more substantial during summers, which are already very hot compared to winters. Such changes may be dangerous to people over vast areas of the country. If the current trend persists into the future, human survival in the region will be impossible without continuous access to air conditioning.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Alicia Takbash ◽  
Ian R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Significant Wave

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, Hs100. The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of Hs100 over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in Hs100 in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

Trend analysis of extratropical cyclones in long-term ERA5 data series (1950-2019)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Blender ◽  
Alexia Karwat ◽  
Christian Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Nearest Neighbor Search ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Neighbor Search ◽  
Weather And Climate

<p>Extratropical cyclones are the primary natural hazards affecting Europe. With the release of ERA5 reanalysis data from 1950-1978 by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), new opportunities have arisen to investigate mid-latitude cyclones in terms of climatic features and trends in longer and higher resolution. We analyze cyclones by nearest neighbor search in 1000 hPa geopotential height minima in different high resolutions for different minimum life-times. We find an intensification of North Atlantic cyclones in 1950-2019. Short-lived cyclones grow in radius and depth. In the Mediterranean, however, long-lived cyclones have weakened; but traveled also further in 1950-2019. Additionally, we illustrate relations between cyclone tracks, radii and correlated weather and climate extremes.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial–Temporal Distribution of Tropospheric Specific Humidity in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 349
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Meiping Sun ◽  
Xiaojun Yao ◽  
Zhilan Wang ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Weather Forecasts

Based on the atmospheric temperature and dew point temperature difference series of mandatory levels in the arid region of northwest China, we calculated the specific humidity of stations at 200, 300, 400, 500, 700, and 850 hPa and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution. The specific humidity of radiosonde is compared with two sets of reanalysis data (ERA-interim from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications: MERRA-2). The annual specific humidity and summer specific humidity show a positive trend in the vertical atmospheric levels during the period 1958–2018. Taking the middle of the 1980s and 2002 as boundaries, the selected levels show the trend of “declining-gentle rising-fluctuation rising”. The maximum specific humidity is observed at the level of 850–700 hPa during the warm months of the year, and the most vertical expansion in specific humidity is in July. In terms of spatial distribution, the specific humidity is greatly influenced by the topography and underlying surface at lower levels. The characteristics of spatial distribution of the trend are well described by the two sets of reanalysis data in the middle and upper levels, but there are some deficiencies in depicting the trend in the lower levels.

scholarly journals In situ temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere from 2 decades of IAGOS long-term routine observation

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 12495-12508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Berkes ◽  
Patrick Neis ◽  
Martin G. Schultz ◽  
Ulrich Bundke ◽  
Susanne Rohs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Geographical Regions

Abstract. Despite several studies on temperature trends in the tropopause region, a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of temperatures in this climate-sensitive region of the atmosphere remains elusive. Here we present a unique global-scale, long-term data set of high-resolution in situ temperature data measured aboard passenger aircraft within the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; http://www.iagos.org). This data set is used to investigate temperature trends within the global upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS,  <  13 km) for the period of 1995–2012 in different geographical regions and vertical layers of the UTLS. The largest number of observations is available over the North Atlantic. Here, a neutral temperature trend is found within the lowermost stratosphere. This contradicts the temperature trend in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, in which a significant (95 % confidence) temperature increase of +0.56 K decade−1 is found. Differences between trends derived from observations and reanalysis data can be traced back to changes in the temperature difference between observation and model data over the period studied. This study underpins the value of the IAGOS temperature observations as an anchor point for the evaluation of reanalyses and its suitability for independent trend analyses.

scholarly journals Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 913-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Pielke ◽  
John Nielsen-Gammon ◽  
Christopher Davey ◽  
Jim Angel ◽  
Odie Bliss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Independent Information ◽  
Before And After ◽  
False Sense ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
And Mathematics

The objective of this research is to determine whether poorly sited long-term surface temperature monitoring sites have been adjusted in order to provide spatially representative independent data for use in regional and global surface temperature analyses. We present detailed analyses that demonstrate the lack of independence of the poorly sited data when they are adjusted using the homogenization procedures employed in past studies, as well as discuss the uncertainties associated with undocumented station moves. We use simulation and mathematics to determine the effect of trend on station adjustments and the associated effect of trend in the reference series on the trend of the adjusted station. We also compare data before and after adjustment to the reanalysis data, and we discuss the effect of land use changes on the uncertainty of measurement. A major conclusion of our analysis is that there are large uncertainties associated with the surface temperature trends from the poorly sited stations. Moreover, rather than providing additional independent information, the use of the data from poorly sited stations provides a false sense of confidence in the robustness of the surface temperature trend assessments.

scholarly journals Extreme Temperature Trends on the West Coast of Saudi Arabia

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 351-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shafiqur Rehman ◽  
Luai M. Al-Hadhrami
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
The West ◽  
Temperature Trends

National coastal management challenges and needs

Shore & Beach ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Nicole Elko ◽  
Tiffany Roberts Briggs
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Management ◽  
Harmful Algal Blooms ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Technical Information ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
The U.S

In partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program (USGS CMHRP) and the U.S. Coastal Research Program (USCRP), the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association (ASBPA) has identified coastal stakeholders’ top coastal management challenges. Informed by two annual surveys, a multiple-choice online poll was conducted in 2019 to evaluate stakeholders’ most pressing problems and needs, including those they felt most ill-equipped to deal with in their day-to-day duties and which tools they most need to address these challenges. The survey also explored where users find technical information and what is missing. From these results, USGS CMHRP, USCRP, ASBPA, and other partners aim to identify research needs that will inform appropriate investments in useful science, tools, and resources to address today’s most pressing coastal challenges. The 15-question survey yielded 134 complete responses with an 80% completion rate from coastal stakeholders such as local community representatives and their industry consultants, state and federal agency representatives, and academics. Respondents from the East, Gulf, West, and Great Lakes coasts, as well as Alaska and Hawaii, were represented. Overall, the prioritized coastal management challenges identified by the survey were: Deteriorating ecosystems leading to reduced (environmental, recreational, economic, storm buffer) functionality, Increasing storminess due to climate change (i.e. more frequent and intense impacts), Coastal flooding, both Sea level rise and associated flooding (e.g. nuisance flooding, king tides), and Combined effects of rainfall and surge on urban flooding (i.e. episodic, short-term), Chronic beach erosion (i.e. high/increasing long-term erosion rates), and Coastal water quality, including harmful algal blooms (e.g. red tide, sargassum). A careful, systematic, and interdisciplinary approach should direct efforts to identify specific research needed to tackle these challenges. A notable shift in priorities from erosion to water-related challenges was recorded from respondents with organizations initially formed for beachfront management. In addition, affiliation-specific and regional responses varied, such as Floridians concern more with harmful algal blooms than any other human and ecosystem health related challenge. The most common need for additional coastal management tools and strategies related to adaptive coastal management to maintain community resilience and continuous storm barriers (dunes, structures), as the top long-term and extreme event needs, respectively. In response to questions about missing information that agencies can provide, respondents frequently mentioned up-to-date data on coastal systems and solutions to challenges as more important than additional tools.

Methods for Calculation of Annual and Extreme Overflow Events from Combined Sewer Systems

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 311-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
N B Johansen ◽  
P Harremoës ◽  
M Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sewer Systems ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Receiving Waters ◽  
Water Problems ◽  
Source Of Pollution ◽  
Receiving Water

Overflow from combined systems constitute an increasing source of pollution of receiving waters, as compared to daily wastewater discharges which undergo treatment to a still higher extent. The receiving water problems from overflows are significant both in a long term scale (mean annual load) and in a short term scale (extreme event load). A method for computation of both annual and extreme load is presented. It is based on historical rain series and the use of a time-area model and simple pollutant mixing model in runoff calculation. Statistical calculations for both mean annual load and extreme events have been applied to the computed overflow series. Based on the computerized method simple manual calculations methods have been developed, resulting in graphs and tables for annual load and extreme load.

The Worrying Trend of Diabetes Mellitus in Saudi Arabia: An Urgent Call to Action

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asirvatham A. Robert ◽  
Mohamed A. Al Dawish
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Present Report ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Cross Sectional

From last few years, the pervasiveness of diabetes mellitus (DM), in Saudi Arabia, is growing at a frightening rate. Overall, one-fourth of the adult population is affected by DM, which is further predicted to rise to more than double by the year 2030. The most alarming is possibly the escalation propensity of diabetes, in recent years, where a nearly ten-fold increase has been witnessed over the past thirty years in Saudi Arabia. However, the number of research arbitrations on the prevalence and incidence of DM is woefully inadequate, as compared to developed countries. Apart from this, most of the existing research data carried out in Saudi Arabia is cross-sectional, with small sample sizes, which most often involve only certain parts of the country. Consequently, the present scenario demands more multidimensional and multisectoral research to strengthen the evidence base and to accumulate greater knowledge as a basis for measures and programmes to confront diabetes and its complications. Thus, the present report makes an attempt to depict the current trend of diabetes as well as intends to put forward essential measures for controlling diabetes in Saudi Arabia.

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