scholarly journals Interannual Variations of Total Ozone at Northern Midlatitudes Correlated with Stratospheric EP Flux and Potential Vorticity

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 3724-3740 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. L. Hood ◽  
B. E. Soukharev
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Independent Study ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract At northern midlatitudes over the 1979–2002 time period, column ozone trends are observed to have maximum negative amplitudes in February and March. Here, the portion of the observed ozone interannual variability and trends during these months that can be attributed to two specific dynamical transport processes is estimated using correlative and regression methods. In approximate agreement with a recent independent study, 18%–25% of the observed maximum negative trend is estimated to be due to long-term changes in the diabatic (Brewer–Dobson) circulation driven by global-scale changes in planetary wave [Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux] forcing. In addition, 27%–31% of the observed maximum midlatitude trend during these months is estimated to be due to long-term changes in local nonlinear synoptic wave forcing as deduced from correlated interannual variations of zonal mean ozone and Ertel’s potential vorticity. Like long-term decreases in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, this trend component reflects an overall net increase in the polar vortex strength, which is associated with increased numbers of anticyclonic, poleward-breaking Rossby waves at northern midlatitudes. Together, these components can explain approximately 50% of the observed maximum negative column ozone trend and interannual variance at northern midlatitudes in February and March. The combined empirical model also approximately simulates a leveling off or slight increase in column ozone anomalies that has been observed for some months and latitudes since the mid-1990s.

scholarly journals Improved estimate of global gross primary production for reproducing its long-term variation, 1982–2017

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Zheng ◽  
Ruoque Shen ◽  
Yawen Wang ◽  
Xiangqian Li ◽  
Shuguang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Fertilization Effect ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. Satellite-based models have been widely used to simulate vegetation gross primary production (GPP) at site, regional, or global scales in recent years. However, accurately reproducing the interannual variations in GPP remains a major challenge, and the long-term changes in GPP remain highly uncertain. In this study, we generated a long-term global GPP dataset at 0.05° latitude by 0.05° longitude at 8-day interval by revising a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE). In the revised EC-LUE model, we integrated the regulations of several major environmental variables: atmospheric CO2 concentration, radiation components, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These environmental variables showed substantial long-term changes, which could greatly impact the global vegetation productivity. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements at 84 towers from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, covering nine major ecosystem types of the globe, were used to calibrate and validate the model. The revised EC-LUE model could explain 83 % and 68 % of the spatial variations in the annual GPP at 42 calibration and 43 validation sites, respectively. In particular, the revised EC-LUE model could very well reproduce (~ 74 % sites R2 > 0.5; averaged R2 = 0.65) the interannual variations in GPP at 51 sites with observations greater than 5-years. At global scale, sensitivity analysis indicated that the long-term changes of environmental variables could be well reflected in the global GPP dataset. The CO2 fertilization effect on the global GPP (0.14 ± 0.001 Pg C yr−1) could be offset by the increased VPD (−0.16 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1). The global GPP derived from different datasets exist substantial uncertainty in magnitude and interannual variations. The magnitude of global summed GPP simulated by the revised EC-LUE model was comparable to other global models. While the revised EC-LUE model has a unique superiority in simulating the interannual variations in GPP at both site level and global scales. The revised EC-LUE model provides a reliable long-term estimate of global GPP because of integrating the important environmental variables. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8942336.v1 (Zheng et al., 2019).

scholarly journals Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 5355-5376
Author(s):  
Luis F. Millán ◽  
Gloria L. Manney ◽  
Zachary D. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. Global reanalyses from data assimilation systems are among the most widely used datasets in weather and climate studies, and potential vorticity (PV) from reanalyses is invaluable for many studies of dynamical and transport processes. We assess how consistently modern reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other, focusing not only on PV but also on process-oriented dynamical diagnostics including equivalent latitude calculated from PV and PV-based tropopause and stratospheric polar vortex characterization. In particular we assess the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2) reanalysis, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis, the Japanese Meteorological Agency's 55-year (JRA-55) reanalysis, and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean, providing some confidence that all of these recent reanalyses are suitable for most studies using PV-based diagnostics. Specific diagnostics where some larger differences are seen include PV-based tropopause locations in regions that have strong tropopause gradients (such as around the subtropical jets) or are sparse in high-resolution data (such as over Antarctica), and the stratospheric polar vortices during fall vortex formation and (especially) spring vortex breakup; studies of sensitive situations or regions such as these should examine PV from multiple reanalyses.

scholarly journals Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange and O3 Decline in the Lower Stratosphere over Irene SHADOZ Site, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thumeka Mkololo ◽  
Nkanyiso Mbatha ◽  
Sivakumar Venkataraman ◽  
Nelson Begue ◽  
Gerrie Coetzee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
K 12 ◽  
Troposphere Ozone

This study aims to investigate the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) events and ozone trends over Irene (25.5°S, 28.1°E). Twelve years of ozonesondes data (2000–2007, 2012–2015) from Irene station operating in the framework of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesodes (SHADOZ) was used to study the troposphere (0–16 km) and stratosphere (17– 28 km) ozone (O3) vertical profiles. Ozone profiles were grouped into three categories (2000–2003, 2004–2007 and 2012–2015) and average composites were calculated for each category. Fifteen O3 enhancement events were identified over the study period. These events were observed in all seasons (one event in summer, four events in autumn, five events in winter and five events in spring), however, they predominantly occur in winter and spring. The STE events presented here are observed to be influenced by the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. During the STE events, the advected potential vorticity maps assimilated using Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso–échelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA) model for the 350 K (~12–13 km) isentropic level indicated a transport of high latitude air masses which seems to be responsible for the reduction of the O3 mole fractions at the lower stratosphere over Irene which takes place at the same time with the enhancement of ozone in the upper troposphere. In general, the stratosphere is dominated by higher Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA-2) potential vorticity (PV) values compared to the troposphere. However, during the STE events, higher PV values from the stratosphere were observed to intrude the troposphere. Ozone decline was observed from 12 km to 24 km with highest decline occurring from 14 km to 18 km. An average decrease of 6.0 and 9.1% was calculated from 12 to 24 km in 2004–2007 and 2012–2015 respectively. The observed decline occurred in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with winter and spring showing more decline compared with summer and autumn.

scholarly journals Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Bednarz ◽  
A. C. Maycock ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
P. Braesicke ◽  
O. Dessens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a 7 member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960-2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of ~11.5 DU decade-1, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by ~50-100 DU below the long-term mean to near present day values. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Cly) over the century, the estimated mean halogen induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of two between 1981-2000 and 2061-2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex elevated halogen losses well above the long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a radiatively-driven cooling trend modelled in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less consistency across the seven ensemble members in the lower stratosphere (100-50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively-driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual years characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and low temperatures continue into the future. We conclude that despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades.

scholarly journals Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 12159-12176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Olivier Dessens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of  ∼  11.5 DU decade−1, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by  ∼  50–100 DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Cly) over the century, the estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.

scholarly journals Variability and trends of the surface solar spectral ultraviolet irradiance in Italy: a possible influence of lower and upper stratospheric ozone trends

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilias Fountoulakis ◽  
Henri Diémoz ◽  
Anna Maria Siani ◽  
Alcide di Sarra ◽  
Daniela Meloni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Total Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Additional Indication ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Ultraviolet Irradiance ◽  
Solar Uv Irradiance ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. In this study the short- and long-term variability of the surface spectral solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance are investigated over Italy using high quality ground based measurements from three sites located at quite different environmental conditions, and covering the full latitudinal extent of the Italian territory: Aosta (45.7° N, 7.4°  E, 570 m a.s.l.), Rome (41.9° N, 12.5° E, 75 m a.s.l.), and Lampedusa (35.5° N, 12.6° E, 50 m a.s.l.). The variability of the irradiances at 307.5 nm, 324 nm, and of the ratio between the 307.5 nm and the 324 nm irradiances were investigated with respect to the corresponding variability in total ozone and the geopotential height at 250 hPa (GPH). The study was performed for two periods: 2006–2020 for all stations, and 1996–2020 only for Rome. A statistically significant correlation between the GPH and total ozone monthly anomalies was found for all stations and all seasons of the year. A corresponding statistically significant correlation was also found in most cases between the GPH and the 307.5 nm irradiance monthly anomalies. The correlation between GPH anomalies at different sites was statistically significant, possibly explaining the strong and significant correlation between the total ozone monthly anomalies at the three sites. A statistically significant decrease of total ozone, of ~0.1 %/year was found for Rome for the period 1996–2020, which however did not induce increasing trends in irradiance at 307.5 nm (neither increasing trends in the ratio between the 307.5 nm and the 324 nm irradiances) at SZA = 67°. Further analyses revealed positive trends in the ratio and the 307.5 nm irradiance at smaller solar zenith angles (SZA), which can be attributed to the fact that total ozone decrease is driven by a decrease in the lower stratosphere while upper stratospheric ozone increases, and the effect of changes of upper stratospheric ozone becoming disproportionately larger for increasing SZA. It was also showed that long-term changes in total ozone follow changes in GPH, which is an additional indication that negative trends in total ozone are mainly driven by changes in lower stratospheric ozone. An anti-correlation between the GPH long-term changes and total ozone was also evident for all stations in 2006–2020. Positive trends in UV irradiance for this latter period which were possibly driven by changes in clouds and/or aerosols were found for Rome and Aosta. This study clearly points out the significance of dynamical processes which take place in the troposphere for the variability of total ozone and surface solar UV irradiance.

scholarly journals Improved estimate of global gross primary production for reproducing its long-term variation, 1982–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2725-2746
Author(s):  
Yi Zheng ◽  
Ruoque Shen ◽  
Yawen Wang ◽  
Xiangqian Li ◽  
Shuguang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Light Use Efficiency ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Use Efficiency

Abstract. Satellite-based models have been widely used to simulate vegetation gross primary production (GPP) at the site, regional, or global scales in recent years. However, accurately reproducing the interannual variations in GPP remains a major challenge, and the long-term changes in GPP remain highly uncertain. In this study, we generated a long-term global GPP dataset at 0.05∘ latitude by 0.05∘ longitude and 8 d interval by revising a light use efficiency model (i.e., EC-LUE model). In the revised EC-LUE model, we integrated the regulations of several major environmental variables: atmospheric CO2 concentration, radiation components, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These environmental variables showed substantial long-term changes, which could greatly impact the global vegetation productivity. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements at 95 towers from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, covering nine major ecosystem types around the globe, were used to calibrate and validate the model. In general, the revised EC-LUE model could effectively reproduce the spatial, seasonal, and annual variations in the tower-estimated GPP at most sites. The revised EC-LUE model could explain 71 % of the spatial variations in annual GPP over 95 sites. At more than 95 % of the sites, the correlation coefficients (R2) of seasonal changes between tower-estimated and model-simulated GPP are larger than 0.5. Particularly, the revised EC-LUE model improved the model performance in reproducing the interannual variations in GPP, and the averaged R2 between annual mean tower-estimated and model-simulated GPP is 0.44 over all 55 sites with observations longer than 5 years, which is significantly higher than those of the original EC-LUE model (R2=0.36) and other LUE models (R2 ranged from 0.06 to 0.30 with an average value of 0.16). At the global scale, GPP derived from light use efficiency models, machine learning models, and process-based biophysical models shows substantial differences in magnitude and interannual variations. The revised EC-LUE model quantified the mean global GPP from 1982 to 2017 as 106.2±2.9 Pg C yr−1 with the trend 0.15 Pg C yr−1. Sensitivity analysis indicated that GPP simulated by the revised EC-LUE model was sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, VPD, and radiation. Over the period of 1982–2017, the CO2 fertilization effect on the global GPP (0.22±0.07 Pg C yr−1) could be partly offset by increased VPD (-0.17±0.06 Pg C yr−1). The long-term changes in the environmental variables could be well reflected in global GPP. Overall, the revised EC-LUE model is able to provide a reliable long-term estimate of global GPP. The GPP dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8942336.v3 (Zheng et al., 2019).

scholarly journals Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis F. Millan ◽  
Gloria L. Manney ◽  
Zachary D. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. Global reanalyses from data assimilation systems are among the most widely used datasets in weather and climate studies, and potential vorticity (PV) from reanalyses is invaluable for many studies of dynamical and transport processes. We assess how consistently modern reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other, focusing not only on PV but also on process-oriented dynamical diagnostics including equivalent latitude calculated from PV and PV-based tropopause and stratospheric polar vortex characterization. In particular we assess the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2) reanalysis, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis, the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s 55-year (JRA-55) reanalysis, and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean, providing some confidence that all of these recent reanalyses are suitable for most studies using PV-based diagnostics. Specific diagnostics where some larger differences are seen include PV-based tropopause locations in regions that have strong tropopause gradients (such as around the subtropical jets) or are sparse in high-resolution data (such as over Antarctica), and the stratospheric polar vortices during fall vortex formation and (especially) spring vortex breakup; studies of sensitive situations/regions such as these should examine PV from multiple reanalyses.

scholarly journals IMPACTS OF CHANNEL DEEPENING ON SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MECHANISMS IN A MESOTIDAL ESTUARY

2018 ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Anna Zorndt ◽  
Frank Kösters
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Transport Mechanisms ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Profound Knowledge ◽  
Human Interventions ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Ecological Importance

Carefully assessing the environmental impacts of human interventions in estuaries on sediment transport and morphodynamics has become increasingly important due to the high ecological importance of these systems. Man-made changes are typically quantified with numerical sediment transport models. However, setting up these models and more importantly interpreting their results requires a profound knowledge of the natural system and present-day transport processes. This contribution focusses on the mechanisms of sediment transport in a mesotidal estuary and discusses possible impacts of a channel deepening on those mechanisms and their expected impact on long-term changes on sediment transport. The processes are described on the basis of field data and simulations.

scholarly journals Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 12751-12771 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Monier ◽  
B. C. Weare
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Temporal Shift ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. The momentum budget of the Transformed Eulerian-Mean (TEM) equation is calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 (R-2). This study outlines the considerable contribution of unresolved waves, deduced to be gravity waves, to the forcing of the zonal-mean flow. A trend analysis, from 1980 to 2001, shows that the onset and break down of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar night jet has a tendency to occur later in the season in the more recent years. This temporal shift follows long-term changes in planetary wave activity that are mainly due to synoptic waves, with a lag of one month. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the polar vortex shows a tendency to persist further into the SH summertime. This also follows a statistically significant decrease in the intensity of the stationary EP flux divergence over the 1980–2001 period. Ozone depletion is well known for strengthening the polar vortex through the thermal wind balance. However, the results of this work show that the SH polar vortex does not experience any significant long-term changes until the month of December, even though the intensification of the ozone hole occurs mainly between September and November. This study suggests that the decrease in planetary wave activity in November provides an important feedback to the zonal wind as it delays the breakdown of the polar vortex. In addition, the absence of strong eddy feedback before November explains the lack of significant trends in the polar vortex in the SH early spring. A long-term weakening in the Brewer-Dobson (B-D) circulation in the polar region is identified in the NH winter and early spring and during the SH late spring and is likely driven by the decrease in planetary wave activity previously mentioned. During the rest of the year, there are large discrepancies in the representation of the B-D circulation and the unresolved waves between the two reanalyses, making trend analyses unreliable.

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