scholarly journals Analysis of the Atlantic Meridional Mode Using Linear Inverse Modeling: Seasonality and Regional Influences

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1194-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Vimont
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Inverse Modeling ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Meridional Mode ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Mode ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Predictability and variability of the tropical Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) is investigated using linear inverse modeling (LIM). Analysis of the LIM using an “energy” norm identifies two optimal structures that experience some transient growth, one related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)/AMM patterns. Analysis of the LIM using an AMM-norm identifies an “AMM optimal” with similar structure to the second energy optima (OPT2). Both the AMM-optimal and OPT2 exhibit two bands of SST anomalies in the mid- to high-latitude Atlantic. The AMM-optimal also contains some elements of the first energy optimal (ENSO), indicating that the LIM captures the well-known relationship between ENSO and the AMM. Seasonal correlations of LIM predictions with the observed AMM show enhanced AMM predictability during boreal spring and for long-lead (around 11–15 months) forecasts initialized around September. Regional LIMs were constructed to determine the influence of tropical Pacific and mid- to high-latitude Atlantic SST on the AMM. Analysis of the regional LIMs indicates that the tropical Pacific is responsible for the AMM predictability during boreal spring. Mid- to high-latitude SST anomalies contribute to boreal summer and fall AMM predictability, and are responsible for the enhanced predictability from September initial conditions. Analysis of the empirical normal modes of the full LIM confirms these physical relationships. Results indicate a potentially important role for mid- to high-latitude Atlantic SST anomalies in generating AMM (and tropical Atlantic SST) variations, though it is not clear whether those anomalies provide any societally useful predictive skill.

scholarly journals A CGCM Study on the Interaction between IOD and ENSO

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1688-1705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Jing Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Suryachandra A. Rao ◽  
Hirofumi Sakuma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract An atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier version 1 (SINTEX-F1) model is used to understand the intrinsic variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). In addition to a globally coupled control experiment, a Pacific decoupled noENSO experiment has been conducted. In the latter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is suppressed by decoupling the tropical Pacific Ocean from the atmosphere. The ocean–atmosphere conditions related to the IOD are realistically simulated by both experiments including the characteristic east–west dipole in SST anomalies. This demonstrates that the dipole mode in the Indian Ocean is mainly determined by intrinsic processes within the basin. In the EOF analysis of SST anomalies from the noENSO experiment, the IOD takes the dominant seat instead of the basinwide monopole mode. Even the coupled feedback among anomalies of upper-ocean heat content, SST, wind, and Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean is reproduced. As in the observation, IOD peaks in boreal fall for both model experiments. In the absence of ENSO variability the interannual IOD variability is dominantly biennial. The ENSO variability is found to affect the periodicity, strength, and formation processes of the IOD in years of co-occurrences. The amplitudes of SST anomalies in the western pole of co-occurring IODs are aided by dynamical and thermodynamical modifications related to the ENSO-induced wind variability. Anomalous latent heat flux and vertical heat convergence associated with the modified Walker circulation contribute to the alteration of western anomalies. It is found that 42% of IOD events affected by changes in the Walker circulation are related to the tropical Pacific variabilities including ENSO. The formation is delayed until boreal summer for those IODs, which otherwise form in boreal spring as in the noENSO experiment.

scholarly journals Explicit versus Parameterized Convection in Response to the Atlantic Meridional Mode

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (9) ◽  
pp. 3343-3354
Author(s):  
Laura Paccini ◽  
Cathy Hohenegger ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Explicit Representation ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Response ◽  
Meridional Mode ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Mode ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThis study investigates whether the representation of explicit and parameterized convection influences the response to the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The main focus is on the precipitation response to the AMM-SST pattern, but possible implications for the atmospheric feedback on SST are also examined by considering differences in the circulation response between explicit and parameterized convection. On the basis of analysis from observations, SST composites are built to represent the positive and negative AMM. These SST patterns, in addition to the March–May climatology, are prescribed to the atmospheric ICON model. High-resolution simulations with explicit convection (E-CON) and coarse-resolution simulations with parameterized convection (P-CON) are used over a nested tropical Atlantic Ocean domain and a global domain, respectively. Our results show that a meridional shift of about 1° in the precipitation climatology explains most of the response to the AMM-SST pattern in simulations both with explicit convection and with parameterized convection. Our results also indicate a linearity in the precipitation response to the positive and negative AMM in E-CON, in contrast to P-CON. Further analysis of the atmospheric response to the AMM reveals that anomalies in the wind-driven enthalpy fluxes are generally stronger in E-CON than in P-CON. This result suggests that SST anomalies would be amplified more strongly in coupled simulations using an explicit representation of convection.

Reexamining the tropical Atlantic influence on ENSO using perfect model predictability experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Hiroki Tokinaga ◽  
Shoichiro Kido
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Similar Amount ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Control Simulation ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Perfect Model

<p>The potential influence of the tropical Atlantic on the development of ENSO has received increased attention over recent years. In particular equatorial Atlantic variability (also known as the Atlantic zonal mode or AZM) has been shown to be anticorrelated with ENSO, i.e. cold AZM events in boreal summer (JJA) tend to be followed by El Niño in winter (DJF), and vice versa for warm AZM events. One problem with disentangling the two-way interaction between the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific is that both ENSO and the AZM tend to develop in boreal spring (MAM).</p><p>Here we use a set of GCM sensitivity experiments to quantify the strength of the Atlantic-Pacific link. The starting point is a 1000-year free-running control simulation with the GFDL CM 2.1 model. From this control simulation, we pick years in which a cold AZM event in JJA is followed by an El Niño in DJF. These years serve as initial conditions for “perfect model” prediction experiments with 10 ensemble members each. In the control experiments, the predictions evolve freely for 12 months from January 1 of each selected year. In the second set of predictions, SSTs are gradually relaxed to climatology in the tropical Atlantic, so that the cold AZM event is suppressed. In the third set of predictions, we restore the tropical Pacific SSTs to climatology, so that the El Niño event is suppressed.</p><p>The results suggest that, on average, the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies increase the strength of El Niño in the following winter by about 10-20%. If, on the other hand, El Niño development is suppressed, the amplitude of the cold AZM event also reduces by a similar amount. The results suggest that, in the context of this GCM, the influence of AZM events on ENSO development is relatively weak but not negligible. The fact that ENSO also influences the AZM in boreal spring highlights the complex two-way interaction between these two modes of variability.</p>

scholarly journals Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 10123-10139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Yang Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.

scholarly journals Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Mode on Gulf Stream North Wall Position

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 8875-8894 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultan Hameed ◽  
Christopher L. P. Wolfe ◽  
Lequan Chi
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Mode ◽  
North Wall ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Mode ◽  
Wall Position

The path of the Gulf Stream as it leaves the continental shelf near Cape Hatteras is marked by a sharp gradient in ocean temperature known as the North Wall. Previous work in the literature has considered processes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in triggering latitudinal displacements of the North Wall position. This paper presents evidence that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) also impacts interannual variations of the North Wall position. The AMM signal from the tropics propagates to the Gulf Stream near the 200-m depth, and there are two time scales for this interaction. Anomalous Ekman suction induced by AMM cools the tropical Atlantic. The cold water in the Caribbean Sea is entrained into the currents feeding the Gulf Stream, and this cooling signal reaches the North Wall within a year. A second mechanism involves cold anomalies in the western tropical Atlantic, which initially propagate westward as baroclinic planetary waves, reaching the Gulf Stream and resulting in a southward shift in the North Wall position after a delay of about one year. In an analysis for the period 1961–2015, AMM’s signal dominates North Wall fluctuations in the upper 300 m, while NAO is the major influence below ~500 m; the influence of both the teleconnections is seen between 300 and 500 m. The relationship between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the North Wall is investigated for the 2005–15 period and found to be statistically significant only at the sea surface in one of the three North Wall indices used.

scholarly journals Hindcasts of Tropical Atlantic SST Gradient and South American Precipitation: The Influences of the ENSO Forcing and the Atlantic Preconditioning

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 2405-2421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huei-Ping Huang ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Shiling Peng
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
South American ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract Hindcast experiments for the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient G1, defined as tropical North Atlantic SST anomaly minus tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly, are performed using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean over the Atlantic to quantify the contributions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and the preconditioning in the Atlantic to G1 in boreal spring. The results confirm previous observational analyses that, in the years with a persistent ENSO SST anomaly from boreal winter to spring, the ENSO forcing plays a primary role in determining the tendency of G1 from winter to spring and the sign of G1 in late spring. In the hindcasts, the initial perturbations in Atlantic SST in boreal winter are found to generally persist beyond a season, leaving a secondary but nonnegligible contribution to the predicted Atlantic SST gradient in spring. For 1993/94, a neutral year with a large preexisting G1 in winter, the hindcast using the information of Atlantic preconditioning alone is found to reproduce the observed G1 in spring. The seasonal predictability in precipitation over South America is examined in the hindcast experiments. For the recent events that can be validated with high-quality observations, the hindcasts produced dryness in boreal spring 1983, wetness in spring 1996, and wetness in spring 1994 over northern Brazil that are qualitatively consistent with observations. An inclusion of the Atlantic preconditioning is found to help the prediction of South American rainfall in boreal spring. For the ENSO years, discrepancies remain between the hindcast and observed precipitation anomalies over northern and equatorial South America, an error that is partially attributed to the biased atmospheric response to ENSO forcing in the model. The hindcast of the 1993/94 neutral year does not suffer this error. It constitutes an intriguing example of useful seasonal forecast of G1 and South American rainfall anomalies without ENSO.

scholarly journals Enhanced ENSO Prediction via Augmentation of Multimodel Ensembles with Initial Thermocline Perturbations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence J. O’Kane ◽  
Dougal T. Squire ◽  
Paul A. Sandery ◽  
Vassili Kitsios ◽  
Richard J. Matear ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sign Test ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Forecast Lead Time

AbstractRecent studies have shown that regardless of model configuration, skill in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in terms of target month and forecast lead time, remains largely dependent on the temporal characteristics of the boreal spring predictability barrier. Continuing the 2019 study by O’Kane et al., we compare multiyear ensemble ENSO forecasts from the Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) to ensemble forecasts from state-of-the-art dynamical coupled models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. The CAFE initial perturbations are targeted such that they are specific to tropical Pacific thermocline variability. With respect to individual NMME forecasts and multimodel ensemble averages, the CAFE forecasts reveal improvements in skill when predicting ENSO at lead times greater than 6 months, in particular when predictability is most strongly limited by the boreal spring barrier. Initial forecast perturbations generated exclusively as disturbances in the equatorial Pacific thermocline are shown to improve the forecast skill at longer lead times in terms of anomaly correlation and the random walk sign test. Our results indicate that augmenting current initialization methods with initial perturbations targeting instabilities specific to the tropical Pacific thermocline may improve long-range ENSO prediction.

scholarly journals On the Inconsistent Relationship between Pacific and Atlantic Niños*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 4294-4303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joke F. Lübbecke ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Northern Tropical Atlantic

Abstract The tropical Atlantic wind response to El Niño forcing is robust, with weakened northeast trade winds north of the equator and strengthened southeast trade winds along and south of the equator. However, the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic is inconsistent, with El Niño events followed sometimes by warm and other times by cold boreal summer anomalies in the Atlantic cold tongue region. Using observational data and a hindcast simulation of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) global model at 0.5° resolution (NEMO-ORCA05), this inconsistent SST relationship is shown to be at least partly attributable to a delayed negative feedback in the tropical Atlantic that is active in years with a warm or neutral response in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. In these years, the boreal spring warming in the northern tropical Atlantic that is a typical response to El Niño is pronounced, setting up a strong meridional SST gradient. This leads to a negative wind stress curl anomaly to the north of the equator that generates downwelling Rossby waves. When these waves reach the western boundary, they are reflected into downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that reach the cold tongue region in late boreal summer to counteract the initial cooling that is due to the boreal winter wind stress response to El Niño. In contrast, this initial cooling persists or is amplified in years in which the boreal spring northern tropical Atlantic warming is weak or absent either because of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase or an early termination of the Pacific El Niño event.

Variability of boreal spring Hadley circulation over the Asian monsoon domain and its relationship with tropical SST

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaqi Wang ◽  
Juan Feng ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Ran An ◽  
Lanning Wang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Sst Anomalies

<p>The variability of boreal spring Hadley circulation (HC) over the Asian monsoon domain over the last four decades is explored. The climatological distribution of the regional HC is symmetric of the equator, with the ascending branch around the equator and sinking branch around the subtropics in each hemisphere. The first dominant mode (EOF1) of the regional HC is equatorial asymmetric, with the main body in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and the ascending branch to the north of the equator. This mode is mainly characterized by interannual variation and is related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Significant negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) along with the development of La Niña events; however, the magnitude of SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean is greater than that in the northern counterpart, contributing to EOF1 formation. The spatial distribution of the second dominant mode (EOF2) is with the main body lying in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the ascending branch located to the south of the equator. The temporal variation of this mode is connected to the warming of the TIO. The warming rate of the southern TIO SST is faster than that in the northern counterpart, resulting in the southward migration of the rising branch. The above result indicates the critical role of the meridional distribution of SST on the variability of the regional HC.</p>

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