scholarly journals Temporal- and Spatial-Scale Dependence of Three CMIP3 Climate Models in Simulating the Surface Temperature Trend in the Twentieth Century

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2456-2470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Sakaguchi ◽  
Xubin Zeng ◽  
Michael A. Brunke
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Scale Dependence ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Linear Trends

Abstract Motivated by increasing interests in regional- and decadal-scale climate predictions, this study systematically analyzed the spatial- and temporal-scale dependence of the prediction skill of global climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) change in the twentieth century. The linear trends of annual mean SAT over moving time windows (running linear trends) from two observational datasets and simulations by three global climate models [Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3.0), Climate Model, version 2.0 (CM2.0), and Model E-H] that participated in CMIP3 are compared over several temporal (10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, and 50-yr trends) and spatial (5° × 5°, 10° × 10°, 15° × 15°, 20° × 20°, 30° × 30°, 30° latitudinal bands, hemispheric, and global) scales. The distribution of root-mean-square error is improved with increasing spatial and temporal scales, approaching the observational uncertainty range at the largest scales. Linear correlation shows a similar tendency, but the limited observational length does not provide statistical significance over the longer temporal scales. The comparison of RMSE to climatology and a Monte Carlo test using preindustrial control simulations suggest that the multimodel ensemble mean is able to reproduce robust climate signals at 30° zonal mean or larger spatial scales, while correlation requires hemispherical or global mean for the twentieth-century simulations. Persistent lower performance is observed over the northern high latitudes and the North Atlantic southeast of Greenland. Although several caveats exist for the metrics used in this study, the analyses across scales and/or over running time windows can be taken as one of the approaches for climate system model evaluations.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models over the Volta Basin: Precipitation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Agyekum ◽  
Thompson Annor ◽  
Benjamin Lamptey ◽  
Emmannuel Quansah ◽  
Richard Yao Kuma Agyeman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Volta Basin ◽  
Ensemble Mean

A selected number of global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated over the Volta Basin for precipitation. Biases in models were computed by taking the differences between the averages over the period (1950–2004) of the models and the observation, normalized by the average of the observed for the annual and seasonal timescales. The Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC), the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, Medium Range (MPI-ESM-MR), the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M), and the multimodel ensemble mean were able to simulate the observed climatological mean of the annual total precipitation well (average biases of 1.9% to 7.5%) and hence were selected for the seasonal and monthly timescales. Overall, all the models (CESM1-BGC, CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR, and NorESM1-M) scored relatively low for correlation (<0.5) but simulated the observed temporal variability differently ranging from 1.0 to 3.0 for the seasonal total. For the annual cycle of the monthly total, the CESM1-BGC, the MPI-ESM-MR, and the NorESM1-M were able to simulate the peak of the observed rainy season well in the Soudano-Sahel, the Sahel, and the entire basin, respectively, while all the models had difficulty in simulating the bimodal pattern of the Guinea Coast. The ensemble mean shows high performance compared to the individual models in various timescales.

scholarly journals Application of prognostic ensembles of global climate models to generate distributed estimates of water content in catchment basins

2021 ◽  
Vol 289 ◽  
pp. 01009
Author(s):  
Valeriya Petruhina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Human Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The State ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Long Time

The problem of predicting climate change and its impact on humans is quite important and relevant in recent times. For a long time, mechanisms and methods for predicting the behavior of the climate in various regions and regions of our planet have been developed. Due to climate change, aggressive human impact on nature, and other various factors, the methods developed in the mid-twentieth century are becoming ineffective, and it is time-consuming but feasible to calculate using several methods. The article considers the technology of processing geoclimatic data, which is used to form spatially distributed predictive estimates of the state of the atmosphere.

Evaluation of Organized Convection Parameterization in Global Climate Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chieh Chen ◽  
Changhai Liu ◽  
Mitch Moncrieff ◽  
Yaga Richter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Organization ◽  
Organized Convection

&lt;p&gt;The importance of convective organization on the global circulation has been recognized for a long time, but parameterizations of the associated processes are missing in global climate models. Contemporary convective parameterizations commonly use a convective plume model (or a spectrum of plumes). This is perhaps appropriate for unorganized convection but the assumption of a gap between the small cumulus scale and the large-scale motion fails to recognize mesoscale dynamics manifested in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and multi-scale cloud systems associated with the MJO. Organized convection is abundant in environments featuring vertical wind shear, and significantly modulates the life cycle of moist convection, the transport of heat and momentum, and accounts for a large percentage of precipitation in the tropics. Mesoscale convective organization is typically associated with counter-gradient momentum transport, and distinct heating profiles between the convective and stratiform regions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moncrieff, Liu and Bogenschutz (2017) recently developed a dynamical based parameterization of organized moisture convection, referred to as multiscale coherent structure parameterization (MCSP), for global climate models. A prototype version of MCSP has been implemented in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), positively affecting the distribution of tropical precipitation, convectively coupled tropical waves, and the Madden-Julian oscillation. We will show the further development of the MCSP and its impact on the simulation of mean precipitation and variability in the two global climate models.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1607-1626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Frigola ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Michael Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Middle Miocene ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Climate Transition

Abstract. The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ∼ 15–13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry, and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The MMCO and MMG boundary conditions have been successfully applied to the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to provide evidence of their suitability for global climate modeling. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

scholarly journals Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6279-6295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin B. Stolpe ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Cooling Period ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Late Twentieth

Recent studies have suggested that significant parts of the observed warming in the early and the late twentieth century were caused by multidecadal internal variability centered in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Here, a novel approach is used that searches for segments of unforced preindustrial control simulations from global climate models that best match the observed Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability (AMV and PMV, respectively). In this way, estimates of the influence of AMV and PMV on global temperature that are consistent both spatially and across variables are made. Combined Atlantic and Pacific internal variability impacts the global surface temperatures by up to 0.15°C from peak-to-peak on multidecadal time scales. Internal variability contributed to the warming between the 1920s and 1940s, the subsequent cooling period, and the warming since then. However, variations in the rate of warming still remain after removing the influence of internal variability associated with AMV and PMV on the global temperatures. During most of the twentieth century, AMV dominates over PMV for the multidecadal internal variability imprint on global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Less than 10% of the observed global warming during the second half of the twentieth century is caused by internal variability in these two ocean basins, reinforcing the attribution of most of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcings.

scholarly journals Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using CCSM4 and PlioMIP2 boundary conditions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Chandan ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
System Model ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) is an international collaboration to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene interglacial, marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Mya), using a wide selection of climate models with the objective of understanding the nature of the warming that is known to have occurred during the broader mid-Pliocene warm period. PlioMIP2 builds upon the successes of PlioMIP by shifting focus onto a specific interglacial and by using a revised set of geographic and orbital boundary conditions. In this paper, we present the details of the mid-Pliocene simulations that we have performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and the enhanced variant of the PlioMIP2 boundary conditions, and discuss the simulated climatology through comparisons to our control simulations, and to proxy reconstructions of the climate of the mid-Pliocene. With the new boundary conditions, the CCSM4 model simulates a mid-Pliocene which is more than twice as warm as that with the boundary conditions used for PlioMIP Phase 1. The warming is more enhanced near the high-latitudes which is where most of the changes to the boundary conditions have been made. The elevated warming in the high-latitudes leads to a better match of the simulated climatology to proxy based reconstructions than what was possible with the previous version of the boundary conditions.

scholarly journals Understanding processes that control dust spatial distributions with global climate models and satellite observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 13835-13855
Author(s):  
Mingxuan Wu ◽  
Xiaohong Liu ◽  
Hongbin Yu ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Yang Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Fraction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Fine Dust ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Dust Extinction

Abstract. Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

scholarly journals Understanding Processes that Control Dust Spatial Distributions with Global Climate Models and Satellite Observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingxuan Wu ◽  
Xiaohong Liu ◽  
Hongbin Yu ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Yang Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Fraction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Fine Dust ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Dust Extinction

Abstract. Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the northern hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the southern hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twentieth-Century Intermodel Variability

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 4910-4929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon C. Delcambre ◽  
David J. Lorenz ◽  
Daniel J. Vimont ◽  
Jonathan E. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The present study focuses on diagnosing the intermodel variability of nonzonally averaged NH winter jet stream portrayal in 17 global climate models (GCMs) from phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Relative to the reanalysis, the ensemble-mean 300-hPa Atlantic jet is too zonally extended and located too far equatorward in GCMs. The Pacific jet varies significantly between modeling groups, with large biases in the vicinity of the jet exit region that cancel in the ensemble mean. After seeking relationships between twentieth-century model wind biases and 1) the internal modes of jet variability or 2) tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is found that biases in upper-level winds are strongly related to an ENSO-like pattern in winter-mean tropical Pacific Ocean SST biases. The spatial structure of the leading modes of variability of the upper-level jet in the twentieth century is found to be accurately modeled in all 17 GCMs. Also, it is shown that Pacific model biases in the longitude of EOFs 1 and 2 are strongly linked to the modeled longitude of the Pacific jet exit, indicating that the improved characterization of the mean state of the Pacific jet may positively impact the modeled variability. This work suggests that improvements in model portrayal of the tropical Pacific mean state may significantly advance the portrayal of the mean state of the Pacific and Atlantic jets, which will consequently improve the modeled jet stream variability in the Pacific. To complement these findings, a companion paper examines the twenty-first-century GCM projections of the nonzonally averaged NH jet streams.

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