scholarly journals Climatological Evolution of the Okinawa Baiu and Differences in Large-Scale Features during May and June

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6287-6303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuko Okada ◽  
Koji Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Warm Advection ◽  
Second Peak ◽  
Initial Peak ◽  
Break Period

Abstract The Okinawa baiu (summer rainy season) starts in early May and ends in late June, preceding the baiu in mainland Japan by approximately 1 month. This study investigates the time evolution of the large-scale circulation associated with the Okinawa baiu using 10-yr (1997–2006) climatologies of precipitation and meteorological fields, with particular focus on temperature advection at 500 hPa.The onset of the Okinawa baiu occurs in early May and is followed by an initial peak in precipitation during mid-May. The baiu rainband then moves southeastward, leading to a short break in baiu precipitation during late May. The rainband returns to Okinawa in early June, and a second peak in precipitation occurs during mid-June. The baiu rainband withdraws northward in late June. The mid-May precipitation peak is associated with warm advection at 500 hPa, mainly due to the meridional temperature gradient and the prevailing southerly winds. This warm advection coincides with upward motion near Okinawa; however, the warm advection is insufficient to explain the peak precipitation amount. Enhancement of precipitation by a transient disturbance probably contributes to the peak amount. The break period during late May coincides with the peak of South China Sea monsoon. Warm advection at 500 hPa strengthens again in June because of the strong zonal thermal contrast between the warm Tibetan Plateau and cold Pacific. This warm advection is able to adequately explain both the upward motion and precipitation. These results indicate that the large-scale meteorological characteristics are different during the first and second peaks.

scholarly journals Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical–dynamical atmospheric model

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Totz ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Erik Peukert ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical–dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.

scholarly journals Transition from Suppressed to Active Convection Modulated by a Weak Temperature Gradient–Derived Large-Scale Circulation

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 834-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Daleu ◽  
S. J. Woolnough ◽  
R. S. Plant
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Transition Time ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Transition Times ◽  
Active Convection ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Numerical simulations are performed to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on the transition from suppressed to active convection. As a model tool, the authors used a coupled-column model. It consists of two cloud-resolving models that are fully coupled via a large-scale circulation that is derived from the requirement that the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature profiles of the two columns remain close to each other. This is known as the weak temperature gradient approach. The simulations of the transition are initialized from coupled-column simulations over nonuniform surface forcing, and the transition is forced in the dry column by changing the local and/or remote surface forcings to uniform surface forcing across the columns. As the strength of the circulation is reduced to zero, moisture is recharged into the dry column and a transition to active convection occurs once the column is sufficiently moistened to sustain deep convection. Direct effects of changing surface forcing occur over the first few days only. Afterward, it is the evolution of the large-scale circulation that systematically modulates the transition. Its contributions are approximately equally divided between the heating and moistening effects. A transition time is defined to summarize the evolution from suppressed to active convection. It is the time when the rain rate in the dry column is halfway to the mean value obtained at equilibrium over uniform surface forcing. The transition time is around twice as long for a transition that is forced remotely compared to a transition that is forced locally. Simulations in which both local and remote surface forcings are changed produce intermediate transition times.

scholarly journals The Implications of an Idealized Large-Scale Circulation for Mechanical Work Done by Tropical Convection

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (8) ◽  
pp. 2533-2547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan A. Kamieniecki ◽  
Maarten H. P. Ambaum ◽  
Robert S. Plant ◽  
Steven J. Woolnough
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mechanical Energy ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Region Model ◽  
Cool Region ◽  
Work Done

Abstract A thermodynamic analysis is presented of an overturning circulation simulated by two cloud-resolving models, coupled by a weak temperature gradient parameterization. Taken together, they represent two separated regions over different sea surface temperatures, and the coupling represents an idealized large-scale circulation such as the Walker circulation. It is demonstrated that a thermodynamic budget linking net heat input to the generation of mechanical energy can be partitioned into contributions from the large-scale interaction between the two regions, as represented by the weak temperature gradient approximation, and from convective motions in the active warm region and the suppressed cool region. Model results imply that such thermodynamic diagnostics for the aggregate system are barely affected by the strength of the coupling, even its introduction, or by the SST contrast between the regions. This indicates that the weak temperature gradient parameterization does not introduce anomalous thermodynamic behavior. We find that the vertical kinetic energy associated with the large-scale circulation is more than three orders of magnitude smaller than the typical vertical kinetic energy in each region. However, even with very weak coupling circulations, the contrast between the thermodynamic budget terms for the suppressed and active regions is strong and is relatively insensitive to the degree of the coupling. Additionally, scaling arguments are developed for the relative values of the terms in the mechanical energy budget.

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 659-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petra Friederichs ◽  
Andreas Hense
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Censored Quantile Regression ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Continuous Character

Abstract Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are based on large-scale circulation patterns of the 12-h forecast from the NCEP high-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS). The censored quantile regression is used to estimate selected quantiles of the precipitation amount and the probability of the occurrence of precipitation. The approach accounts for the mixed discrete-continuous character of daily precipitation totals. The forecasts are verified using a new verification score for quantile forecasts, namely the censored quantile verification (CQV) score. The forecast approach is as follows: first, a canonical correlation is employed to correct systematic deviations in the GFS large-scale patterns compared with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis or the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Second, the statistical quantile model between the large-scale circulation and the local precipitation quantile is derived using NCEP and ERA-40 reanalysis data. Then, the statistical quantile model is applied to 12-h forecasts provided by the GFS forecast system. The probabilistic forecasts are reliable and the relative gain in performance of the quantile as well as the probability forecasts compared to the climatological forecasts range between 20% and 50%. The importance of the various parts of the postprocessing is assessed, and the performance is compared to forecasts based on the direct precipitation output from the ECMWF forecast system.

Diagnosis of Variability and Trends in a Global Precipitation Dataset Using a Physically Motivated Statistical Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4154-4166 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. P. Sapiano ◽  
D. B. Stephenson ◽  
H. J. Grubb ◽  
P. A. Arkin
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Global Precipitation

Abstract A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime (October–March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasigeostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity qs has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

The Tropospheric Response to Tropical and Subtropical Zonally Asymmetric Torques: Analytical and Idealized Numerical Model Results

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 214-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany A. Shaw ◽  
William R. Boos
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The tropospheric response to prescribed tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques, which can be considered as idealizations of vertical momentum transfers by orographic gravity waves or convection, is investigated. The linear analytical Gill model response to westward upper-tropospheric torques is compared to the response to a midtropospheric heating, which is a familiar point of reference. The response to an equatorial torque projects onto a Kelvin wave response to the east that is of opposite sign to the response to the east of the heating at upper levels. In contrast, the torque and heating both produce Rossby gyres of the same sign to the west of the forcing and the zonal-mean streamfunction responses are identical. When the forcings are shifted into the Northern Hemisphere, the streamfunction responses have opposite signs: there is upwelling in the Southern (Northern) Hemisphere in response to the torque (heating). The nonlinear response to westward torques was explored in idealized general circulation model experiments. In the absence of a large-scale meridional temperature gradient, the response to an equatorial torque was confined to the tropics and was qualitatively similar to the linear solutions. When the torque was moved into the subtropics, the vorticity budget response was similar to a downward control–type balance in the zonal mean. In the presence of a meridional temperature gradient, the response to an equatorial torque involved a poleward shift of the midlatitude tropospheric jet and Ferrel cell. The response in midlatitudes was associated with a poleward shift of the regions of horizontal eddy momentum flux convergence, which coincided with a shift in the upper-tropospheric critical line for baroclinic waves. The shift in the critical line was caused (in part) by the zonal wind response to the prescribed torque, suggesting a possible cause of the response in midlatitudes. Overall, this hierarchy of analytical and numerical results highlights robust aspects of the response to tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques and represents the first step toward understanding the response in fully comprehensive general circulation models.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of the large-scale atmosphere circulation to changes in surface temperature gradients in the Northern Hemisphere

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Molnos ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Erik Peukert ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Jet Streams

Abstract. Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicates that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades including the strength of the Hadley cell, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves. Associated impacts cover a broad range, including changes in the frequency and nature of weather extremes and shifts of fertile habitats with implications for biodiversity and agriculture. Dynamical theories have been proposed that link the shift of the poleward edge of the Northern Hadley cell to changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Moreover, model simulations have been carried out to analyse the cause of observed and projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere circulation. However, the question of the underlying drivers and particularly the possible role of global warming is still debated. Here, we use a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to analyse the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell, storm tracks, jet streams and planetary waves to changes in temperature fields by systematically altering the zonal and meridional temperature gradient as well as the global mean surface temperature.

scholarly journals Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with One- and Two-Way Couplings via the Weak Temperature Gradient Approximation

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (12) ◽  
pp. 3683-3699 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Daleu ◽  
S. J. Woolnough ◽  
R. S. Plant
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Homogeneous Surface ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Equilibrium Simulation

Abstract A cloud-resolving model is modified to implement the weak temperature gradient approximation in order to simulate the interactions between tropical convection and the large-scale tropical circulation. The instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature is relaxed toward a reference profile obtained from a radiative–convective equilibrium simulation of the cloud-resolving model. For homogeneous surface conditions, the model state at equilibrium is a large-scale circulation with its descending branch in the simulated column. This is similar to the equilibrium state found in some other studies, but not all. For this model, the development of such a circulation is insensitive to the relaxation profile and the initial conditions. Two columns of the cloud-resolving model are fully coupled by relaxing the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature in both columns toward each other. This configuration is energetically closed in contrast to the reference-column configuration. No mean large-scale circulation develops over homogeneous surface conditions, regardless of the relative area of the two columns. The sensitivity to nonuniform surface conditions is similar to that obtained in the reference-column configuration if the two simulated columns have very different areas, but it is markedly weaker for columns of comparable area. The weaker sensitivity can be understood as being a consequence of a formulation for which the energy budget is closed. The reference-column configuration has been used to study the convection in a local region under the influence of a large-scale circulation. The extension to a two-column configuration is proposed as a methodology for studying the influence on local convection of changes in remote convection.

scholarly journals Exploring the sensitivity of the large-scale atmosphere circulation to changes in surface temperature gradients using a Statistical-Dynamical Atmosphere Model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Totz ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Erik Peukert ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Temperature Asymmetry ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicates that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades including the strength of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to analyse the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere dynamical components to changes in temperature fields by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient as well as the global mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depends almost linearly on both the global mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is clearly affected by all three temperature components. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components. Under global warming the temperature gradients are expected to change: Enhanced warming is expected in the Arctic, largely near the surface, and at the equator at high altitudes, altering the meridional temperature gradient. Further, land-ocean contrasts will change due to enhanced land warming. Also there is a pronounced seasonality to these warming patterns. Using SDAMs to disentangle and separately analyse the effect of individual temperature changes can help to understand observed and projected changes in large-scale atmosphere dynamics. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and therefore an important part of model validation.

Observed Large-Scale Structures and Diabatic Heating and Drying Profiles during TWP-ICE

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaocheng Xie ◽  
Timothy Hume ◽  
Christian Jakob ◽  
Stephen A. Klein ◽  
Renata B. McCoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Large Scale Structures ◽  
Horizontal Advection ◽  
Scale Structures ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Break Period

Abstract This study documents the characteristics of the large-scale structures and diabatic heating and drying profiles observed during the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), which was conducted in January–February 2006 in Darwin during the northern Australian monsoon season. The examined profiles exhibit significant variations between four distinct synoptic regimes that were observed during the experiment. The active monsoon period is characterized by strong upward motion and large advective cooling and moistening throughout the entire troposphere, while the suppressed and clear periods are dominated by moderate midlevel subsidence and significant low- to midlevel drying through horizontal advection. The midlevel subsidence and horizontal dry advection are largely responsible for the dry midtroposphere observed during the suppressed period and limit the growth of clouds to low levels. During the break period, upward motion and advective cooling and moistening located primarily at midlevels dominate together with weak advective warming and drying (mainly from horizontal advection) at low levels. The variations of the diabatic heating and drying profiles with the different regimes are closely associated with differences in the large-scale structures, cloud types, and rainfall rates between the regimes. Strong diabatic heating and drying are seen throughout the troposphere during the active monsoon period while they are moderate and only occur above 700 hPa during the break period. The diabatic heating and drying tend to have their maxima at low levels during the suppressed periods. The diurnal variations of these structures between monsoon systems, continental/coastal, and tropical inland-initiated convective systems are also examined.

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