scholarly journals The Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4088-4095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela J. Colbert ◽  
Brian J. Soden ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Southern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The authors examine the change in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks that results from projected changes in the large-scale steering flow and genesis location from increasing greenhouse gases. Tracks are first simulated using a Beta and Advection Model (BAM) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis winds for all TCs that formed in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR) for the period 1950–2010. Changes in genesis location and large-scale steering flow are then estimated from an ensemble mean of 17 models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the A1b emissions scenario. The BAM simulations are then repeated with these changes to estimate how the TC tracks would respond to increased greenhouse gases. As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of ~5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of ~5.5%. These track changes decrease TC counts over the southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1–1.5 decade−1 and increase counts over the central Atlantic by 1–1.5 decade−1. Changes in the large-scale steering flow account for a vast majority of the projected changes in TC trajectories.

scholarly journals The Impact of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1806-1823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela J. Colbert ◽  
Brian J. Soden ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined using a beta and advection model (BAM) to isolate the influence of changes in the large-scale steering flow from changes in genesis location. The BAM captures many of the observed changes in TC tracks due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while little change is noted for the Pacific decadal oscillation and all-India monsoon rainfall in either observations or BAM simulations. Analysis with the BAM suggests that the observed shifts in the average track between the phases of ENSO are primarily due to changes in the large-scale steering flow, with changes in genesis location playing a secondary role. Potential changes in TC tracks over the WNP due to anthropogenic climate change are also assessed. Ensemble mean projections are downscaled from 17 CMIP3 models and 26 CMIP5 models. Statistically significant decreases [~(4%–6%)] in westward moving TCs and increases [~(5%–7%)] in recurving ocean TCs are found. These correspond to projected decreases of 3–5 TCs per decade over the Philippines and increases of 1–3 TCs per decade over the central WNP. The projected changes are primarily caused by a reduction in the easterlies. This slows the storm movement, allowing more time for the beta drift to carry the storm northward and recurve. A previous study found similar results in the North Atlantic. Taken together, these results suggest that a weakening of the mean atmospheric circulation in response to anthropogenic warming will lead to fewer landfalling storms over the North Atlantic and WNP.

scholarly journals Impact of Air-Sea Coupling on the Climate Change Signal Over The Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALBA DE LA VARA ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this work we use a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP is a well suited location for this study as high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model shows the added value of regionalization in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals A Look at the Relationship between the Large-Scale Tropospheric Static Stability and the Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-975
Author(s):  
Alexandria Downs ◽  
Chanh Kieu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractVarious modeling and observational studies have suggested that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity tends to increase in the future due to projected warmer sea surface temperature (SST). This study examines the effects of the tropospheric stratification that could potentially offset the direct increase of TC intensity associated with the warmer SST. Using reanalysis datasets and TC records in the northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that there exists a consistently negative correlation between the annually averaged TC intensity and the basinwide average of the tropospheric static stability. This negative correlation is more robust in the northwestern Pacific basin when using the TC lifetime maximum intensity but is somewhat less significant in the North Atlantic basin. Further separation of the troposphere into a lower (1000–500 hPa) and an upper layer (500–200 hPa) reveals that it is the upper-tropospheric static stability that plays a more dominant role in governing the TC intensity variability. The negating effects of a stable troposphere on TC intensity as found in this study suggest a partial offset of the projected increase in the TC potential intensity due to the future warmer SST. Thus, the tropospheric static stability is one of the key large-scale factors that need to be properly taken into account in studies of long-term TC intensity change.

scholarly journals Dynamic wavelet correlation analysis for multivariate climate time series

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josué M. Polanco-Martínez ◽  
Javier Fernández-Macho ◽  
Martín Medina-Elizalde
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Time Series

AbstractThe wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large-scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i.e. sea surface temperatures (SST) from the tropical cyclone main developmental region (MDR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and tropical cyclone counts (TC). We examine the former three large-scale variables because they are known to influence North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and because their underlying drivers are still under investigation. WLMC results obtained for these multivariate climate time series suggest that: (1) MDRSST and AMO show the highest correlation with each other and with respect to the TC record over the last millennium, and: (2) MDRSST is the dominant climate variable that explains TC temporal variability. WLMC results confirm that this method is able to capture the most fundamental information contained in multivariate climate time series and is suitable to investigate correlation among climate time series in a multivariate context.

Changes in the Past and Projected Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warmed Climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Projected Changes

<p><span>Two high-resolution climate models (the HiRAM and MRI-AGCM3.2) are used to simulate present-day western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and investigate </span><span>the </span><span>projected changes for the late 21<sup>st</sup> century. Compared </span><span>to</span><span>observation</span><span>s</span><span>, the models </span><span>are</span><span> able to realistically simulate many basic features of </span><span>the WNP</span><span> TC activity </span><span>climatolog</span><span>y. Future projections </span><span>with the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario</span><span> show a tendency for decreases in the number of WNP TCs</span><span>,</span> <span>and of</span><span> increase</span><span>s</span> <span>in the</span> <span>more intense </span><span>TCs. It is unknown to what cause this inverse variation with number and intensity should be generally linked to similar large-scale environmental conditions. To examine the WNP TC genesis and intensity with environmental variables, we show that most of the current trend of decreasing genesis of TCs can be attributed to weakened dynamic environments and the current trend of increasing intensity of TCs might be linked to increased thermodynamic environments. Thus, the future climate warms under RCP 8.5 will likely lead to strong reductions in TC genesis frequency over the WNP, with project decreases of 36-63% by the end of the twenty-first century, but lead to greater TC intensities with rapid development of thermodynamic environments.</span></p>

scholarly journals Potential Large-Scale Forcing Mechanisms Driving Enhanced North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity since the Mid-1990s

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1377-1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Xingyi Duan ◽  
G. B. Raga ◽  
Fengpeng Sun
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Recent Increase ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms ◽  
Interdecadal Changes

A significant increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is observed over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during the recent decades (1995–2014). In this study, the changes in large-scale controls of the NATL TC activity are compared between two periods, one before and one since 1995, when a regime change is observed. The results herein suggest that the significantly enhanced NATL TC frequency is related mainly to the combined effect of changes in the magnitudes of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic factors and their association with TC frequency. Interdecadal changes in the role of vertical wind shear and local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the NATL appear to be two important contributors to the recent increase of NATL TC frequency. Low-level vorticity plays a relatively weak role in the recent increase of TC frequency. These changes in the role of large-scale factors largely depend on interdecadal changes of tropical SST anomalies (SSTAs). Enhanced low-level westerlies to the east of the positive SSTAs have been observed over the tropical Atlantic since 1995, with a pattern nearly opposite to that seen before 1995. Moreover, the large-scale contributors to the NATL TC frequency increase since 1995 are likely related to both local and remote SSTAs. Quantification of the impacts of local and remote SSTAs on the increase of TC frequency over the NATL basin and the physical mechanisms require numerical simulations and further observational analyses.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6727-6749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

scholarly journals The Basic Ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part I: Land–Sea Contrast and Orography

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 2539-2558 ◽  
Author(s):  
David James Brayshaw ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Michael Blackburn
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
North American Continent ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

scholarly journals Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in MPI-ESM

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Fischer ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
Wolfgang A. Müller ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. We investigate the effect of a projected reduction in the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) on changes in its seasonal cycle. We analyze a climate projection experiment with the Max-Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the OHT declines in MPI-ESM in the North Atlantic by 30–50 % by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the total OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5 degrees and latitude dependent temporal shifts of 1 to 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the shift in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly results from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads to latitude dependent shifts of 1 to 6 months in the overturning component. In the subpolar North Atlantic, we find that the reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation in RCP8.5 and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened seasonal amplitude by the end of the 23rd century and thus changes the OHT seasonal cycle in the SPG.

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