scholarly journals Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 852-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽  
Nicholas W. Barnes ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circulation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century.

Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Hot Spots in the Light of a Weakening Sun

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3431-3447
Author(s):  
Tobias Spiegl ◽  
Ulrike Langematz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSatellite measurements over the last three decades show a gradual decrease in solar output, which can be indicative as a precursor to a modern grand solar minimum (GSM). Using a chemistry–climate model, this study investigates the potential of two GSM scenarios with different magnitude to counteract the climate change by projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the twenty-first century. To identify regions showing enhanced vulnerability to climate change (hot spots) and to estimate their response to a possible modern GSM, a multidimensional metric is applied that accounts for—in addition to changes in mean quantities—seasonal changes in the variability and occurrence of extreme events. We find that a future GSM in the middle of the twenty-first century would temporarily mitigate the global mean impact of anthropogenic climate change by 10%–23% depending on the GSM scenario. A future GSM would, however, not be able to stop anthropogenic global warming. For the GHG-only scenario, our hot-spot analysis suggests that the midlatitudes show a response to rising GHGs below global average, while in the tropics, climate change hot spots with more frequent extreme hot seasons will develop during the twenty-first century. A GSM would reduce the climate change warming in all regions. The GHG-induced warming in Arctic winter would be dampened in a GSM due to the impact of reduced solar irradiance on Arctic sea ice. However, even an extreme GSM could only mitigate a fraction of the tropical hot-spot pattern (up to 24%) in the long term.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-630
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
M. Nazrul Islam ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Far Future

AbstractThis paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.

Emergence of Southern Hemisphere circulation changes in response to ozone recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Zambri ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
David Thompson ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p>Ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere in the late 20<sup>th</sup> century cooled the air there, strengthening the SH stratospheric westerly winds near 60ºS and altering SH surface climate. Since ~1999, trends in Antarctic ozone have begun to recover, exhibiting a flattening followed by a sign reversal in response to decreases in stratospheric chlorine concentration due to the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty banning the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. Here we show that the post–1999 increase in ozone has resulted in thermal and circulation changes of opposite sign to those that resulted from stratospheric ozone losses, including a warming of the SH polar lower stratosphere and a weakening of the SH stratospheric polar vortex.  Further, these altered trends extend to the upper troposphere, albeit of smaller magnitudes.  Observed post–1999 trends of temperature and circulation in the stratosphere are about 20–25% the magnitude of those of the ozone depletion era, and are broadly consistent with expectations based on modeled depletion-era trends and variability of both ozone and reactive chlorine, thereby indicating the emergence of healing of dynamical impacts of the Antarctic ozone hole.</p>

scholarly journals Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2896-2905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
First Century ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract An observed trend in the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) during recent decades has involved an intensification of the polar vortex. The source of this trend is a matter of scientific debate with stratospheric ozone losses, greenhouse gas increases, and natural variability all being possible contenders. Because it is difficult to separate the contribution of various external forcings to the observed trend, a state-of-the-art global coupled model is utilized here. Ensembles of twentieth-century simulations forced with the observed time series of greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, sulfate aerosols, volcanic aerosols, solar variability, and various combinations of these are used to examine the annular mode trends in comparison to observations, in an attempt to isolate the response of the climate system to each individual forcing. It is found that ozone changes are the biggest contributor to the observed summertime intensification of the southern polar vortex in the second half of the twentieth century, with increases of greenhouse gases also being a necessary factor in the reproduction of the observed trends at the surface. Although stratospheric ozone losses are expected to stabilize and eventually recover to preindustrial levels over the course of the twenty-first century, these results show that increasing greenhouse gases will continue to intensify the polar vortex throughout the twenty-first century, but that radiative forcing will cause widespread temperature increases over the entire Southern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana Ivanciu ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Arne Biastoch ◽  
Sebastian Wahl ◽  
Jan Harlaß
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
First Century ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract. Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) alter the temperature structure of the atmosphere and drive changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We systematically investigate the impacts of ozone recovery and increasing GHGs on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during the twenty-first century using a unique coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model with interactive ozone chemistry and enhanced oceanic resolution. We use the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5 for GHGs under which the springtime Antarctic total column ozone returns to 1980s levels by 2048 in our model, warming the lower stratosphere and strengthening the stratospheric westerly winds. Novel results of this study include the springtime stratospheric circulation response to GHGs, which is characterized by changes of opposing sign over the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, the opposing responses of the Agulhas leakage to ozone recovery and increasing GHGs, and large uncertainties in the prediction of atmospheric and oceanic circulation changes related to whether the ozone field is prescribed or calculated interactively. By performing a thorough spatial analysis of the predicted changes in the stratospheric dynamics, we find that the GHG effect during spring exhibits a strong dipole pattern, which contrasts the GHG effect during the rest of the year and which was previously not reported, as it cannot be detected when zonal means are considered. Over the Western Hemisphere, GHGs drive a warming of the lower stratosphere and a weakening of the westerlies, while over the Eastern Hemisphere they drive a cooling and a strengthening of the westerlies. Associated with these changes, planetary waves break higher up in the stratosphere over the Eastern Hemisphere, strengthening the polar downwelling and inducing dynamical warming in the upper stratosphere, while weakening the downwelling and inducing dynamical cooling in the lower stratosphere. The opposite occurs over the Western Hemisphere. Because the changes in the Western Hemisphere dominate during November in our model, we find that during this month GHGs lead to a weakening of the lower branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, reinforcing the weakening caused by ozone recovery. At the surface, the westerly winds weaken and shift equatorward due to ozone recovery, driving a weak decrease in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the Agulhas leakage, which transports warm and saline waters from the Indian into the Atlantic Ocean. The increasing GHGs drive changes in the opposite direction that overwhelm the ozone effect. The total changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation are nevertheless weaker in the presence of ozone recovery than those induced by GHGs alone, highlighting the importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating some of the impacts of climate change. We additionally compare the combined effect of interactively calculated ozone recovery and increasing GHGs with their combined effect in an ensemble in which we prescribe the CMIP6 ozone field. This second ensemble simulates a weaker ozone effect in all the examined fields. The magnitude of the difference between the simulated changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation in the two ensembles is as large as the ozone effect itself. This shows that the choice between prescribing or calculating the ozone field interactively can affect the prediction of changes not only in the atmospheric, but also in the oceanic circulation.

scholarly journals Introduction and Synthesis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Tolerable Level

Climate change is frequently referred to as one of the defining challenges of the twenty-first century. The authors of this chapter concur. In broad terms, the climate challenge is relatively straightforward. Global average temperatures are rising as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. In the absence of deliberate and global action to substantially reduce and then eliminate (or even turn net negative) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global temperature rise within this century is very likely to surpass two degrees Celsius (IPCC 2014), which is the (somewhat arbitrary) threshold set by the international community as a tolerable level. Continuation of current levels of emissions or continued growth in emissions throughout the twenty-first century could result in warming far above the two- degree threshold with very bad implications for the planet, for human societies, particularly poor people.

scholarly journals The Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Ozone Hole in Climate Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1336-1342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigmond ◽  
John C. Fyfe
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Sea Ice Extent

Abstract It has been suggested that the increase of Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent since the 1970s can be explained by ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. In a previous study, the authors have shown that in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model the ozone hole does not lead to an increase but to a decrease in sea ice extent. Here, the robustness of this result is established through the analysis of models from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Comparison of the mean sea ice trends in CMIP3 models with and without time-varying stratospheric ozone suggests that ozone depletion is associated with decreased sea ice extent, and ozone recovery acts to mitigate the future sea ice decrease associated with increasing greenhouse gases. All available historical simulations with CMIP5 models that were designed to isolate the effect of time-varying ozone concentrations show decreased sea ice extent in response to historical ozone trends. In most models, the historical sea ice extent trends are mainly driven by historical greenhouse gas forcing, with ozone forcing playing a secondary role.

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