Projection of future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas based on Global Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Model with SRES A1B Scenario

To project the future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas due to global warming, regional sea level variations are downscaled from three climate system models (GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MIROC3.2(hires)) using a global ocean-sea ice coupled model with non-Boussinesq approximation. Based on the SRES A1B Scenario, the projected ensemble mean sea level rise (rate of rise) for the East Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 1995 to 2050 is 15.60cm (2.84mm/year), 16.49cm (3.0mm/year) and 16.43cm (2.99mm/year), respectively. With the inclusion of the future change of land ice melting and land water storage, the mean sea level rise (rate of rise) increases to 33.55cm (6.10mm/year) for the East Sea, and 34.38~34.44cm (6.25~6.26mm/year) for the Yellow and East China Seas. The present non-Boussinesq ocean model experiment shows that the future sea level rise in the East Sea is mainly due to the steric component changes by heat content increase. On the other hand, the future sea level rise in the Yellow and East China Seas appears to be mainly associated with the non-steric component change by water mass convergence.

Impact of climate change on temperature in Khuzestan

The effect of climate changes on mean annual air temperature (MAAT) with AOGCM models in Khuzestan province in Iran is investigated in this study. Seven models of AR4 AOGCM models including HADCM3, CNRMCM3, CSIROMK3.0, GFDLCM2.0, INMCM3.0, IPSLCM4, and BCM2.0 for future period (2040–2069) under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios is considered with respect to observed period (1982–2011). For downscaling AOGCMs data, LARS-WG model was used. Investigation of (MAAT) in 9 selected stations during 1982 to 2011 years showed increasing trend of mean slop in all stations. Maximum and minimum increasing changes occurred under A2 scenario in Shahid abbaspour Dam and Dezful stations with 2.1 °C and B1 scenario in Abadan station with 1.3 °C and A1B scenario in Abadan station with 1.9 °C. Spatial analysis of (MAAT) under two GHG emission scenarios for whole of Khuzestan province showed increasing changes from northwest to southeast of study area. The results has also showed that there are more uncertainties in AOGCM models than emission scenarios.

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

This study evaluates the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is one of the most important variables in water resources management and irrigation scheduling. For this purpose, daily weather data of 30 Iranian weather stations from 1981 and 2010 were used. The HadCM3 statistical model was applied to report the output subscale of LARS-WG and to predict the weather information by A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011–2045, 2046–2079, and 2080–2113. The ET0 values were estimated by the Ref-ET software. The results indicated that the ET0 will rise from 2011 to 2113 approximately in all stations under three scenarios. The ET0 changes percentages in the A1B scenario during three periods from 2011 to 2113 were found to be 0.98%, 5.18%, and 12.17% compared to base period, respectively, while for the B1 scenario, they were calculated as 0.67%, 4.07%, and 6.61% and for the A2 scenario, they were observed as 0.59%, 5.35%, and 9.38%, respectively. Thus, the highest increase of the ET0 will happen from 2080 to 2113 under the A1B scenario; however, the lowest will occur between 2046 and 2079 under the B1 scenario. Furthermore, the assessment of uncertainty in the ET0 calculated by the different scenarios showed that the ET0 predicted under the A2 scenario was more reliable than the others. The spatial distribution of the ET0 showed that the highest ET0 amount in all scenarios belonged to the southeast and the west of the studied area. The most noticeable point of the results was that the ET0 differs from one scenario to another and from a period to another.

POSSIBLE CHANGES OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN UKRAINE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE XXI CENTURY

In Ukraine, as in the world, substantial climatic changes have happened throughout past decades. It is a fact that they are manifested in changing of parameters of the thermal regime, regimes of wind and humidity. It is expected that they will be observed also in future that will lead to aggravation of negative effects and risks due to climate change. That determines the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate’s behavior in future is very important in the development of strategies, program and measures to adapt to climate change. The article is devoted to assessing spatio-temporal distribution main climatic indicators (air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) in Ukraine, their variability and the probable values to the middle of the 21st century (2021-2050). Projection of changes in meteorological conditions was made for A1B scenario of SRES family using data of the regional climate model REMO and data from the hydrometeorological observation network of Ukraine (175 stations). Estimated data obtained from the European FP-6 ENSEMBLES project with a resolution of 25 km. For spatial distribution (mapping) we used open-source Geographic Information System QGIS, type of geographic coordinate system for project is WGS84. In the middle of the XXI century, if A1B scenario is released, it is expected a significant changes of climatic parameters regarding the 1981-2010 climatic norm: air temperature is rise by 1,5 °C, average wind speed is decrease by 5-8%, relative humidity in winter probably drop by 2%, but in summer it rises by 1,5%. The unidirectionality of the changes is characteristic only of air temperature, for wind speed and relative humidity the changes are in different directions. The intensity of changes is also not uniform across the country for all climatic parameters, has its regional and seasonal features. Statistical likelihood for most of highlighted changes for all climatic parameters is 66 % and more, the air temperature change is virtually certain (p-level <0.001).

Scenarii Bioclimatiques A L’horizon 2050 Dans Le Departement De L’oueme Au Benin (Afrique De L’ouest)

This study aims to determine the future bioclimatic atmospheres by 2050 according to the scenarios A1B and B1, in order to determine if the human health of the populations in the department Ouémé in Benin would be subjected to more or less harsh environments. To do this, this study was conducted using descriptive statistics methods, and bioclimatic index calculation (UTCI). The data used are the meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, insolation and wind) on a monthly scale over the period 1971-2014 and the data from 2020 to 2025 from the ReMO database. The results of this study make it possible to remember that the A1B scenario presents a distinct singularity, because it describes more bioclimatic atmospheres than the B1 scenario. Whatever the variations, the December- March period will be dominated by a hot atmosphere, while April-October by a more comfortable atmosphere. Differences between bioclimatic atmospheres by 2050 and the current one will reach +9.2 in February for the A1B scenario and +8.4 for the B1 scenario. This variation of future bioclimatic atmospheres simulated by means of the REMO data and UTCI will not be without effects on the health of children from 0 to 5 years old in the Department of Ouémé and therefore in the face of this future configuration. adaptations are proposed to the different actors in the study area.

Increasing water temperatures exacerbate the potential for density dependence in juvenile steelhead

We studied the potential effects of predicted climate change on the energetic demands of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and their consequences for local population size and structure in Idaho, USA. Projected increases in water temperature incurred on average a 10% higher energetic cost by 2040 (range 7.0%–12.5% among study reaches in the watershed) and a 16% increase (range 8.5%–21.3%) by 2080 following the A1B scenario. The predicted increase in energetic cost was largest in the coolest stream reaches, where the proportional increases in energetic cost exceed that of temperature. Energetically, and in absence of increases in food supply, local densities were consequently expected to decline. We examined which factors best described the shape of current size distributions to explore future size distributions as temperatures increase. Mass distribution skewness was best explained by local biomass (positive relationship) and water temperature (negative relationship). The results suggest that local steelhead cohorts will approach a platykurtic, slightly negatively skewed distribution with increasing temperatures and demonstrate that temperature can exacerbate demographic density dependence in fish populations.

The Fate of the Southern Weddell Sea Continental Shelf in a Warming Climate

Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in the Weddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders of magnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.