scholarly journals Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6923-6935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rawlins ◽  
Raymond S. Bradley ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
John S. Kimball ◽  
David A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971–2000) and midcentury (2041–70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9–1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%–6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (<0.2°C day−) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada.

scholarly journals Greenhouse Gas–Induced Changes in Summer Precipitation over Colorado in NARCCAP Regional Climate Models*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8690-8697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
James D. Scott ◽  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
Joseph Barsugli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract Precipitation changes between 32-yr periods in the late twentieth and mid-twenty-first centuries are investigated using regional climate model simulations provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The simulations generally indicate drier summers in the future over most of Colorado and the border regions of the adjoining states. The decrease in precipitation occurs despite an increase in the surface specific humidity. The domain-averaged decrease in daily summer precipitation occurs in all of the models from the 50th through the 95th percentile, but without a clear agreement on the sign of change for the most extreme (top 1% of) events.

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1373-1379 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Sho Kawazoe ◽  
David M. Flory ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October–March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate well the monthly frequency of extremes, the amount of extreme precipitation, and the 500-hPa circulation anomaly associated with the extremes. The models also replicate very well the statistics of the interannual variability of occurrences of extremes. For an interior region containing the upper Mississippi River basin, where precipitation is more dependent on internally generated storms, the models agree with observations in both monthly frequency and magnitude, although not as closely as for coastal California. In addition, simulated circulation anomalies for extreme months are similar to those in observations. Each region has important seasonally varying precipitation processes that govern the occurrence of extremes in the observations, and the models appear to replicate well those variations.

Temperature Trends in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3985-3991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

The skill of six regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing short-term (24-yr), observed, near-surface temperature trends when driven by reanalysis is examined. The RCMs are part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). If RCMs can reproduce observed temperature trends, then they are, in a way, demonstrating their ability to capture a type of climate change, which may be relevant to their ability to credibly simulate anthropogenic climate changes under future emission scenarios. This study finds that the NARCCAP RCMs can simulate some resolved-scale temperature trends, especially those seen recently in spring and, by and large, in winter. However, results in other seasons suggest that RCM performance in this measure may be dependent on the type and strength of the forcing behind the observed trends.

scholarly journals Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-92
Author(s):  
Joshua P. French ◽  
Seth McGinnis ◽  
Armin Schwartzman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Confidence Regions ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract. We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Wang ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Arthur Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as “analogs” that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km 2 catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal characteristics in streamflow-related hydroclimatic variables over western Canada. Part 2: future projections

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 932-944 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. L. O'Neil ◽  
T. D. Prowse ◽  
B. R. Bonsal ◽  
Y. B. Dibike
Keyword(s):  
Snow Depth ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
The North ◽  
Spring Freshet ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

Much of the freshwater in western Canada originates in the Rocky Mountains as snowpack. Temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the region control the amount of snow accumulated and stored throughout the winter, and the intensity and timing of melt during the spring freshet. Therefore, changes in temperature, precipitation, snow depth, and snowmelt over western Canada are examined through comparison of output from the current and future periods of a series of regional climate models for the time periods 1971–2000 and 2041–2070. Temporal and spatial analyses of these hydroclimatic variables indicate that minimum temperature is likely to increase more than maximum temperature, particularly during the cold season, possibly contributing to earlier spring melt. Precipitation is projected to increase, particularly in the north. In the coldest months of the year snow depth is expected to increase in northern areas and decrease across the rest of study area. Snowmelt results indicate increases in mid-winter melt events and an earlier onset of the spring freshet. This study provides a summary of potential future climate using key hydroclimatic variables across western Canada with regard to the effects these changes may have on streamflow and the spring freshet, and thus water resources, throughout the study area.

scholarly journals The KLIWAS North Sea Climatology. Part I: Processing of the Atmospheric Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remon Sadikni ◽  
Nils H. Schade ◽  
Axel Andersson ◽  
Annika Jahnke-Bornemann ◽  
Iris Hinrichs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The University

AbstractClimatological reference data serve as validation of regional climate models, as the boundary condition for the model runs, and as input for assimilation systems used by reanalyses. Within the framework of the interdisciplinary research program Climate Water Navigation (KLIWAS): Impacts of Climate Change on Waterways and Navigation of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, a new climatology of the North Sea and adjacent regions was developed in an joint effort by the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, the German Weather Service [Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)], and the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC) of the University of Hamburg. Long-term records of monthly and annual mean 2-m air temperature, dewpoint temperature, and sea level pressure data from 1950 to 2010 were calculated on a horizontal 1° × 1° grid. All products were based on quality-controlled data from DWD’s Marine Data Centre. Correction methods were implemented for each parameter to reduce the sampling error resulting from the sparse coverage of observations in certain regions. Comparisons between sampling error estimates based on ERA-40 and the climatology products show that the sampling error was reduced effectively. The climatologies are available for download on the ICDC’s website and will be updated regularly regarding new observations and additional parameters. An extension to the Baltic Sea is in progress.

Evaluation of Precipitation Indices over North America from Various Configurations of Regional Climate Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilia Paula Diaconescu ◽  
Philippe Gachon ◽  
René Laprise ◽  
John F. Scinocca
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Indices

scholarly journals Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Falk ◽  
Nils Hempelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The North

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

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