scholarly journals Greenhouse Gas–Induced Changes in Summer Precipitation over Colorado in NARCCAP Regional Climate Models*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8690-8697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
James D. Scott ◽  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
Joseph Barsugli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract Precipitation changes between 32-yr periods in the late twentieth and mid-twenty-first centuries are investigated using regional climate model simulations provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The simulations generally indicate drier summers in the future over most of Colorado and the border regions of the adjoining states. The decrease in precipitation occurs despite an increase in the surface specific humidity. The domain-averaged decrease in daily summer precipitation occurs in all of the models from the 50th through the 95th percentile, but without a clear agreement on the sign of change for the most extreme (top 1% of) events.

scholarly journals Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-92
Author(s):  
Joshua P. French ◽  
Seth McGinnis ◽  
Armin Schwartzman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Confidence Regions ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract. We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1373-1379 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Sho Kawazoe ◽  
David M. Flory ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October–March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate well the monthly frequency of extremes, the amount of extreme precipitation, and the 500-hPa circulation anomaly associated with the extremes. The models also replicate very well the statistics of the interannual variability of occurrences of extremes. For an interior region containing the upper Mississippi River basin, where precipitation is more dependent on internally generated storms, the models agree with observations in both monthly frequency and magnitude, although not as closely as for coastal California. In addition, simulated circulation anomalies for extreme months are similar to those in observations. Each region has important seasonally varying precipitation processes that govern the occurrence of extremes in the observations, and the models appear to replicate well those variations.

Temperature Trends in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3985-3991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

The skill of six regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing short-term (24-yr), observed, near-surface temperature trends when driven by reanalysis is examined. The RCMs are part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). If RCMs can reproduce observed temperature trends, then they are, in a way, demonstrating their ability to capture a type of climate change, which may be relevant to their ability to credibly simulate anthropogenic climate changes under future emission scenarios. This study finds that the NARCCAP RCMs can simulate some resolved-scale temperature trends, especially those seen recently in spring and, by and large, in winter. However, results in other seasons suggest that RCM performance in this measure may be dependent on the type and strength of the forcing behind the observed trends.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Wang ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Arthur Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as “analogs” that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km 2 catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest.

scholarly journals Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6923-6935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rawlins ◽  
Raymond S. Bradley ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
John S. Kimball ◽  
David A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971–2000) and midcentury (2041–70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9–1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%–6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (<0.2°C day−) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 822
Author(s):  
Abdullah Kahraman ◽  
Deniz Ural ◽  
Barış Önol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.

scholarly journals Potential Value of Expert Elicitation for Determining Differential Credibility of Regional Climate Change Simulations: An Exercise with the NARCCAP co-PIs for the Southwest Monsoon Region of North America

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda O. Mearns ◽  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Vanessa J. Schweizer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract In this brief article, we report the initial results of an expert elicitation with the co-PIs (regional climate modelers) of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program regarding their evaluation of the relative quality of regional climate model simulations focusing on the subregion dominated by the North American monsoon (NAM). We assumed that an expert elicitation framework might reveal interesting beliefs and understanding that would be different from what would be obtained from calculating quantitative metrics associated with model quality. The simulations considered were of six regional climate models (RCMs) that used NCEP Reanalysis 2 as boundary conditions for the years 1980–2004. The domain covers most of North America and adjacent oceans. The seven participating regional modelers were asked to complete surveys on their background beliefs about model credibility and their judgments regarding the quality of the six models based on a series of plots of variables related to the NAM (e.g., temperature, winds, humidity, moisture flux, precipitation). The specific RCMs were not identified. We also compared the results of the expert elicitation with those obtained from using a series of metrics developed to evaluate a European collection of climate model simulations. The results proved to be quite different in the two cases. The results of this exercise proved very enlightening regarding regional modelers’ perceptions of model quality and their beliefs about how this information should or should not be used. Based on these pilot study results, we believe a more complete study is warranted.

scholarly journals Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 119-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kotlarski ◽  
A. Block ◽  
U. Böhm ◽  
D. Jacob ◽  
K. Keuler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Hydrological Applications

Abstract. The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.

Evaluation of the Surface Climatology over the Conterminous United States in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Hindcast Experiment Using a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5698-5715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinwon Kim ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Chris A. Mattmann ◽  
Linda O. Mearns ◽  
Cameron E. Goodale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract Surface air temperature, precipitation, and insolation over the conterminous United States region from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) hindcast study are evaluated using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). All RCMs reasonably simulate the observed climatology of these variables. RCM skill varies more widely for the magnitude of spatial variability than the pattern. The multimodel ensemble is among the best performers for all these variables. Systematic biases occur across these RCMs for the annual means, with warm biases over the Great Plains (GP) and cold biases in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico (GM) coastal regions. Wet biases in the Pacific Northwest and dry biases in the GM/southern Great Plains also occur in most RCMs. All RCMs suffer problems in simulating summer rainfall in the Arizona–New Mexico region. RCMs generally overestimate surface insolation, especially in the eastern United States. Negative correlation between the biases in insolation and precipitation suggest that these two fields are related, likely via clouds. Systematic variations in biases for regions, seasons, variables, and metrics suggest that the bias correction in applying climate model data to assess the climate impact on various sectors must be performed accordingly. Precipitation evaluation with multiple observations reveals that observational data can be an important source of uncertainties in model evaluation; thus, cross examination of observational data is important for model evaluation.

scholarly journals The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I initiative: Description and highlight results from the initial analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Sabina Abba Omar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractWe describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of 21st century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over 9 CORDEX domains at ~25 km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

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