scholarly journals La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 4207-4225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kohyama ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The West ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.

scholarly journals Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS)

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 4227-4251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kohyama ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Transient Heating ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Abstract In global warming experiments, the majority of global climate models warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific than in the west and produce a weakening of the Walker circulation. In contrast, GFDL-ESM2M is an exception that exhibits a La Niña–like mean-state warming with a strengthening of the Walker circulation. This study explores the cause of this exceptional response and proposes a new mechanism, the nonlinear ENSO warming suppression (NEWS), where the transient heating rate difference between the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs annihilates extreme El Niños, causing a suppression of mean-state warming in the east. Heat budget analyses of GFDL-ESM2M robustly show that nonlinear dynamical heating, which is necessary for extremely warm El Niños, becomes negligible under warming. An idealized nonlinear recharge oscillator model suggests that, if the temperature difference between the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs becomes larger than some threshold value, the upwelling becomes too efficient for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to retain its nonlinearity. Therefore, extreme El Niños dissipate but La Niñas remain almost unchanged, causing a La Niña–like mean-state warming. NEWS is consistent with observations and GFDL-ESM2M but not with the majority of state-of-the-art models, which lack realistic ENSO nonlinearity. NEWS and its opposite response to atmospheric cooling, the nonlinear ENSO cooling suppression (NECS), might contribute to the Pacific multidecadal natural variability and global warming hiatuses.

scholarly journals Enlarged Asymmetry of Tropical Pacific Rainfall Anomalies Induced by El Niño and La Niña under Global Warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1327-1343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Huang ◽  
Dong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Mean State

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important sources of climate interannual variability. A prominent characteristic of ENSO is the asymmetric, or so-called nonlinear, local rainfall response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN), in which the maximum rainfall anomalies during EN are located farther east than those during LN. In this study, the changes in rainfall anomalies during EN and LN are examined based on the multimodel ensemble mean results of 32 CMIP5 models under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. It is found that robust EN–LN asymmetric changes in rainfall anomalies exist. The rainfall anomalies during EN and LN both shift eastward and intensify under global warming, but the eastward shift during EN is farther east than that during LN. A simplified moisture budget decomposition method is applied to study the mechanism of the asymmetric response. The results show that the robust increase in mean-state moisture can enlarge the EN–LN asymmetry of the rainfall anomalies, and the spatial relative changes in mean-state SST with an El Niño–like pattern can shift the rainfall anomalies farther east during EN than during LN, enlarging the difference in the zonal locations of the rainfall response to EN and LN. The role of the relative changes in mean-state SST can also be interpreted as follows: the decreased zonal gradient of mean-state SST due to El Niño–like warming leads to a larger EN–LN asymmetry of rainfall anomalies under a future warming climate.

scholarly journals Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiya Hayashi ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Enso Asymmetry

Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

scholarly journals Reversed Spatial Asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña and Their Linkage to Decadal ENSO Modulation in CMIP3 Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (20) ◽  
pp. 5423-5434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Seon Tae Kim
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Interaction Mechanism ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Spatial Asymmetries ◽  
Mean State

Abstract This study examines preindustrial simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), models to show that a tendency exists for El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies to be located farther eastward than La Niña anomalies during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events but farther westward than La Niña anomalies during weak ENSO events. Such reversed spatial asymmetries are shown to force a slow change in the tropical Pacific Ocean mean state that in return modulates ENSO amplitude. CMIP3 models that produce strong reversed asymmetries experience cyclic modulations of ENSO intensity, in which strong and weak events occur during opposite phases of a decadal variability mode associated with the residual effects of the reversed asymmetries. It is concluded that the reversed spatial asymmetries enable an ENSO–tropical Pacific mean state interaction mechanism that gives rise to a decadal modulation of ENSO intensity and that at least three CMIP3 models realistically simulate this interaction mechanism.

Warming of the Indian Ocean weakens the Atlantic Niño - El Niño Southern Oscillation connection 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreya Dhame ◽  
Andréa Taschetto ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Giovanni Liguori ◽  
Katrin Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
The West ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Mean State

<p>The tropical Indian Ocean has warmed by 1 degree Celsius since the mid-twentieth century. This warming is likely to continue as the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels keep rising. Here, we discuss how the warming trend could influence the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via interaction with the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean mean state and variability. The warming trend leads to the strengthening of easterlies in the western equatorial Pacific, subsequent downwelling and increase of the mixed later depth in the west, and an increase in the subsurface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, the response of upwelling ocean currents to surface wind stress decreases, resulting in a weakening of ENSO amplitude. The Indian Ocean warming influences ENSO via the Atlantic Ocean as well. There, it is associated with the strengthening of equatorial easterly winds, and anomalous warming in the west and upwelling induced cooling in the east, especially in austral winter, during the peak of the Atlantic Niño. Consequently, this results in a decrease of the amplitude of Atlantic Niño events and weakening of the Atlantic Niño-ENSO teleconnection, thereby hindering the transition of El Niño events to La Niña events. Thus, the Indian Ocean warming trend is found to modulate tropical Pacific and Atlantic mean state and variability, with implications for ENSO predictability under a warming climate.</p>

scholarly journals Different influencing mechanisms of two ENSO types on the interannual variation in diurnal SST over the Niño 3 and 4 regions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
XIAODAN YANG ◽  
YAJUAN SONG ◽  
MENG WEI ◽  
YUHUAN XUE ◽  
ZHENYA SONG
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
La Nina

AbstractIn this paper, the different effects of the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) and central equatorial Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on interannual variation in the diurnal sea surface temperature (SST) are explored in both the Niño 3 and Niño 4 regions. In the Niño 3 region, the diurnal SST anomaly (DSSTA) is negative during both EP and CP El Niño events and becomes positive during both EP and CP La Niña events. However, the DSSTA in the Niño 4 region is positive in El Niño years and negative in La Niña years, which is opposite to that in the Niño 3 region. Further analysis indicates that the incident shortwave radiation (SWR), wind stress (WS), and upward latent heat flux (LHF) are the main factors causing the interannual variation in the DSST. In the Niño 3 region, the decreased/increased SWR and the increased (decreased) LHF lead to the negative (positive) DSSTA in EP El Niño (La Niña) years. In addition, the enhanced (reduced) WS and the increased (decreased) LHF cause the negative (positive) DSSTA in CP El Niño (La Niña) years. In the Niño 4 region, the reduced (enhanced) trade wind plays a key role in producing in the positive (negative) DSSTA, while the decreased (increased) SWR has an opposite effect that reduces/increases the range of the DSSTA during both EP and CP El Niño (La Niña) events.

scholarly journals Impacts of ENSO on Philippine Tropical Cyclone Activity

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1877-1897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Peter J. Lamb
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Mean

Abstract This study investigates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Niño phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Niña phases differ only in January–March and July–September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Niño phases are significant in January–March and October–December and in January–March for neutral and La Niña phases. El Niño and La Niña landfalls are significantly different in April–June and October–December. Philippine neutral and El Niño TC genesis cover broader longitude–latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Niño phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Niña TC genesis to the Philippines and straight-moving tracks in April–June and October–December increase TC frequencies and landfalls. Neutral and El Niño accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values are above average, except in April–June of El Niño phases. Above-average quarterly ACE in neutral years is due to increased TC frequencies, days, and intensities, whereas above-average El Niño ACE in July–September is due to increased TC days and intensities. Below-average La Niña ACE results from fewer TCs and shorter life cycles. Longer TC durations produce slightly above-average TC days in July–September El Niño phases. Fewer TCs than neutral years, as well as shorter TC durations, imply less TC days in La Niña phases. However, above-average TC days occur in October–December as a result of higher TC frequencies.

scholarly journals Transport of short-lived species into the Tropical Tropopause Layer

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 441-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Ashfold ◽  
N. R. P. Harris ◽  
E. L. Atlas ◽  
A. J. Manning ◽  
J. A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
The West ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. We use NAME, a trajectory model, to investigate the routes and timescales over which air parcels reach the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Our aim is to assist the planning of aircraft campaigns focussed on improving knowledge of such transport. We investigate the conditions which might occur during one such campaign, SHIVA, which takes place in Borneo during November 2011. We first study the TTL above Borneo in November 2008, under neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Air parcels (trajectories) arriving in the lower TTL (below ~15 km) are most likely to have travelled from the boundary layer (BL; <1 km) above the West Pacific. Few air parcels found above ~16 km travelled from the BL in the previous 15 days. We then perform similar calculations for moderate El Niño (2006) and La Niña (2007) conditions and find year-to-year variability consistent with the phase of ENSO. Under El Niño conditions fewer air parcels travel from the BL to the TTL above Borneo. During the La Niña year, more air parcels travel from the BL to the mid and upper TTL (above ~15 km) than in the ENSO-neutral year, and again they do so from the BL above the West Pacific. We also find intra-month variability in all years, with day-to-day differences of up to an order of magnitude in the fraction of an idealised short-lived tracer travelling from the BL to the TTL above Borneo. Finally, we consider measurements made in two previous campaigns in order to validate our approach. The features of vertical profiles of short-lived species observed in the TTL during CR-AVE and TC4 are in broad agreement with calculated vertical profiles of idealised short-lived tracers. It will require large numbers of observations to fully describe the statistical distribution of short-lived species in the TTL. This modelling approach should prove valuable in planning flights for the long-duration aircraft capable of making such measurements.

scholarly journals Mechanisms linking multi-year La Niña with preceding strong El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoki Iwakiri ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
La Nina

AbstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by anomalous sea surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, is a dominant interannual variability, impacting worldwide weather and socioeconomics. The ENSO cycle contains irregularity, in which La Niña often persists for more than two years, called “multi-year La Niña”. Observational records show that multi-year La Niña tends to accompany strong El Niño in the preceding year, but their physical linkage remains unclear. Here we show using reanalysis data that a strong El Niño excites atmospheric conditions that favor the generation of multi-year La Niña in subsequent years. Easterly wind anomalies along the northern off-equatorial Pacific during the decay phase of the strong El Niño are found crucial as they act to discharge ocean heat content (OHC) via an anomalous northward Ekman transport. The negative OHC anomaly is large enough to be restored by a single La Niña and, therefore, causes another La Niña to occur in the second year. Furthermore, analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models support the abovementioned mechanisms and indicate that the occurrence frequencies of multi-year La Niña and strong El Niño are highly correlated.

scholarly journals Transport of short-lived species into the Tropical Tropopause Layer

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 6309-6322 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Ashfold ◽  
N. R. P. Harris ◽  
E. L. Atlas ◽  
A. J. Manning ◽  
J. A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
The West ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. We use NAME, a trajectory model, to investigate the routes and timescales over which air parcels reach the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Our aim is to assist the planning of aircraft campaigns focussed on improving knowledge of such transport. We focus on Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific which appears to be a particularly important source of air that enters the TTL. We first study the TTL above Borneo in November 2008, under neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Air parcels (trajectories) arriving in the lower TTL (below ~15 km) are most likely to have travelled from the boundary layer (BL; <1 km) above the West Pacific. Few air parcels found above ~16 km travelled from the BL in the previous 15 days. We then perform similar calculations for moderate El Niño (2006) and La Niña (2007) conditions and find year-to-year variability consistent with the phase of ENSO. Under El Niño conditions fewer air parcels travel from the BL to the TTL above Borneo. During the La Niña year, more air parcels travel from the BL to the mid and upper TTL (above ~15 km) than in the ENSO-neutral year, and again they do so from the BL above the West Pacific. We also find intra-month variability in all years, with day-to-day differences of up to an order of magnitude in the fraction of an idealised short-lived tracer travelling from the BL to the TTL above Borneo. These calculations were performed as a prelude to the SHIVA field campaign, which took place in Borneo during November 2011. So finally, to validate our approach, we consider measurements made in two previous campaigns. The features of vertical profiles of short-lived species observed in the TTL during CR-AVE and TC4 are in broad agreement with calculated vertical profiles of idealised short-lived tracers. It will require large numbers of observations to fully describe the statistical distribution of short-lived species in the TTL. This modelling approach should prove valuable in planning flights for the long-duration aircraft now capable of making such measurements.

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