scholarly journals Increased Chances of Drought in Southeastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Anthropogenic Warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6543-6560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuangmei Ma ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Oliver Angélil ◽  
Hideo Shiogama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool ◽  
Drought Conditions

The southeastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (SEPTP) was hit by an extraordinarily severe drought in the autumn of 2009. Overall, the SEPTP has been gripped by a sustained drought for six consecutive years. To better understand the physical causes of these types of severe and frequent droughts and thus to improve their prediction and enhance the ability to adapt, many research efforts have been devoted to the disastrous droughts in the SEPTP. Nonetheless, whether the likelihood and strength of the severe droughts in the SEPTP, such as that in the autumn of 2009, have been affected by anthropogenic climate change remains unknown. This study first identifies the atmospheric circulation regime responsible for the SEPTP droughts and then explores how human-induced climate change has affected the severe droughts in the SEPTP. It is found that the drought conditions in the SEPTP have been driven by the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature (SST) through strengthening of the local Hadley circulation and anomalously cyclonic motion over the South China Sea. Ensemble simulations of climate models demonstrate a robust increase in the dry and warm meteorological conditions seen during the 2009 SEPTP autumn drought due to anthropogenic global warming. Given that warming is expected to continue into the future, these results suggest that it is likely that drought conditions will become more common in the SEPTP.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Variations of Water Vapor Budget over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer and Its Relationship with the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 828
Author(s):  
Deli Meng ◽  
Qing Dong ◽  
Fanping Kong ◽  
Zi Yin ◽  
Yanyan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Southern Boundary ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool ◽  
Water Vapor Budget

The water vapor budget (WVB) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is closely related to the large-scale atmospheric moisture transportation of the surrounding mainland and oceans, especially for the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). However, the procession linkage between the WVBs over the TP and its inner basins and IPWP has not been sufficiently elucidated. In this study, the relationship between the summer WVB over the TP and the IPWP was quantitatively investigated using reanalysis datasets and satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST). The results show that: (1) the mean total summer vapor budget (WVBt) over the TP in the period of 1979–2018 was 72.5 × 106 kg s−1. Additionally, for the 13 basins within the TP, the summer WVB has decreased from southeast to northwest; the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin had the highest WVB (33.7%), followed by the Upper Yangtze River Basin, Ganges River Basin and Qiangtang Plateau. (2) For the past several decades, the WVBt over the TP has experienced an increasing trend (3.81 × 106 kg s−1 decade−1), although the southern boundary budget (WVBs) contributed the most and is most closely related with the WVBt, while the eastern boundary budget (WVBe) experienced a decreasing trend (4.21 × 106 kg s−1 decade−1) which was almost equal to the interdecadal variations of the WVBt. (3) For the IPWP, we defined a new warm pool index of surface latent heat flux (WPI-slhf), and found that an increasing WPI-slhf would cause an anticyclone anomaly in the equatorial western Indian Ocean (near 70° E), resulting in the increased advent of water vapor to the TP. (4) On the interdecadal scale, the correlation coefficients of the variation of the summer WVBt over the TP with the WPI-slhf and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal were 0.86 and 0.85, respectively (significant at the 0.05% level). Therefore, the warming and the increasing slhf of the IPWP would significantly contribute to the increasing WVB of the TP in recent decades.

scholarly journals High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 3087-3103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanghe Gu ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Chuanguo Yang ◽  
Qin Ju ◽  
Tao Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical (1980–2005) climate and future (2006–2049) climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multi-model ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030–2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 ∘C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

scholarly journals Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Qin Ju ◽  
Weijuan Jiang ◽  
Changjun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ipcc Ar4

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least.

scholarly journals Climatology and physical mechanisms of the tropospheric warm cores over the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Shang ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
Buwen Dong
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Active Region ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temperature Deviation ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool

AbstractThe frequently observed tropospheric warm cores over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique climate phenomena and are crucial to the Asian summer monsoon development. However, their climatological structure and formation mechanisms remain elusive and inconsistent among previous studies. In this work, two vertically separated warm cores, the upper-level warm cores (ULWCs) and lower-level warm cores (LLWCs), are identified based on the zonal temperature deviation. The LLWCs are basically confined below 450 hPa, and the ULWCs are mostly observed at 200–400 hPa. The active region of the LLWCs is generally within the TP domain and characterized by regional patches with high frequency occurrences. In contrast, the active region of the ULWCs is featured by a zonally elongated band along the southern TP. The physical mechanisms for the formations of these two distinct types of warm cores are revealed: the LLWCs are mainly generated and maintained by the surface diabatic heating, while the ULWCs are dominated by the large-scale circulation associated with the convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. During March–June, the ULWCs within the TP domain occur most frequently and the intensities attain their maxima. In March–April, the ULWCs are mainly determined by the TP adiabatic subsidence induced by the convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. In May–June, the warm advection induced by westerlies generates the downstream ULWCs and enhances the ULWCs formed in previous months. Hence it might be inappropriate in traditional view to attribute the tropospheric warm cores around the TP solely to the direct thermal effect of the elevated topography.

scholarly journals The Variability of Summer Atmospheric Water Cycle over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Response to the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4676
Author(s):  
Deli Meng ◽  
Wanjiao Song ◽  
Qing Dong ◽  
Zi Yin ◽  
Wenbo Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Atmospheric Water ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), atmosphere, and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) together constitute a regional land–atmosphere–ocean water vapor transport system. This study uses remote sensing data, reanalysis data, and observational data to explore the spatiotemporal variations of the summer atmospheric water cycle over the TP and its possible response to the air-sea interaction in the IPWP during the period 1958–2019. The results reveal that the atmospheric water cycle process over the TP presented an interannual and interdecadal strengthening trend. The climatic precipitation recycle ratio (PRR) over the TP was 18%, and the stronger the evapotranspiration, the higher the PRR. On the interdecadal scale, the change in evapotranspiration has a significant negative correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The variability of the water vapor transport (WVT) over the TP was controlled by the dynamic and thermal conditions inside the plateau and the external air-sea interaction processes of the IPWP. When the summer monsoon over the TP was strong, there was an anomalous cyclonic WVT, which increased the water vapor budget (WVB) over the TP. The central and eastern tropical Pacific, the maritime continent and the western Indian Ocean together constituted the triple Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, which enhanced the convective activity over the IPWP and induced a significant easterly wind anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere, and then generated pronounced easterly WVT anomalies from the tropical Pacific to the maritime continent and the Bay of Bengal. Affected by the air-sea changes in the IPWP, the combined effects of the upstream strengthening and the downstream weakening in the water vapor transport process, directly and indirectly, increased the water vapor transport and budget of TP.

scholarly journals Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1962
Author(s):  
Zhilong Zhao ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Zengzeng Hu ◽  
Xuanhua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Mean Temperature

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

Spring phenology outweighed climate change in determining autumn phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 3725-3742
Author(s):  
Jie Peng ◽  
Chaoyang Wu ◽  
Xiaoyue Wang ◽  
Linlin Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Spring Phenology

Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Zhigang Jiang ◽  
Songhua Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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