scholarly journals The Impact of Indian Ocean Mean-State Biases in Climate Models on the Representation of the East African Short Rains

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (16) ◽  
pp. 6611-6631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Hirons ◽  
Andrew Turner
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
East African ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean State

The role of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in controlling interannual variability in the East African short rains, from October to December, is examined in state-of-the-art models and in detail in one particular climate model. In observations, a wet short-rainy season is associated with the positive phase of the IOD and anomalous easterly low-level flow across the equatorial Indian Ocean. A model’s ability to capture the teleconnection to the positive IOD is closely related to its representation of the mean state. During the short-rains season, the observed low-level wind in the equatorial Indian Ocean is westerly. However, half of the models analyzed exhibit mean-state easterlies across the entire basin. Specifically, those models that exhibit mean-state low-level equatorial easterlies in the Indian Ocean, rather than the observed westerlies, are unable to capture the latitudinal structure of moisture advection into East Africa during a positive IOD. Furthermore, the associated anomalous easterly surface wind stress causes upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean. This upwelling draws up cool subsurface waters, enhancing the zonal sea surface temperature gradient between west and east and strengthening the positive IOD pattern, further amplifying the easterly wind stress. This positive Bjerknes coupled feedback is stronger in easterly mean-state models, resulting in a wetter East African short-rain precipitation bias in those models.

scholarly journals A 17-My-old whale constrains onset of uplift and climate change in east Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (13) ◽  
pp. 3910-3915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Wichura ◽  
Louis L. Jacobs ◽  
Andrew Lin ◽  
Michael J. Polcyn ◽  
Fredrick K. Manthi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Beaked Whale ◽  
East African ◽  
Surface Uplift ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Mantle Processes ◽  
The Impact

Timing and magnitude of surface uplift are key to understanding the impact of crustal deformation and topographic growth on atmospheric circulation, environmental conditions, and surface processes. Uplift of the East African Plateau is linked to mantle processes, but paleoaltimetry data are too scarce to constrain plateau evolution and subsequent vertical motions associated with rifting. Here, we assess the paleotopographic implications of a beaked whale fossil (Ziphiidae) from the Turkana region of Kenya found 740 km inland from the present-day coastline of the Indian Ocean at an elevation of 620 m. The specimen is ∼17 My old and represents the oldest derived beaked whale known, consistent with molecular estimates of the emergence of modern strap-toothed whales (Mesoplodon). The whale traveled from the Indian Ocean inland along an eastward-directed drainage system controlled by the Cretaceous Anza Graben and was stranded slightly above sea level. Surface uplift from near sea level coincides with paleoclimatic change from a humid environment to highly variable and much drier conditions, which altered biotic communities and drove evolution in east Africa, including that of primates.

An MJO Simulated by the NICAM at 14- and 7-km Resolutions

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (10) ◽  
pp. 3254-3268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Liu ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Hironori Fudeyasu ◽  
Tomoe Nasuno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Central Indian Ocean ◽  
Simulated Event ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Substantial Bias ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract This study discloses detailed Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) characteristics in the two 30-day integrations of the global cloud-system-resolving Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) using the all-season real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon. The model anomaly is derived by excluding the observed climatology because the simulation is sufficiently realistic. Results show that the MJO has a realistic evolution in amplitude pattern, geographical locations, eastward propagation, and baroclinic- and westward-tilted structures. In the central Indian Ocean, convection develops with the low-level easterly wind anomaly then matures where the low-level easterly and westerly anomalies meet. Anomalous moisture tilts slightly with height. In contrast, over the western Pacific, the convection grows with a low-level westerly anomaly. Moisture fluctuations, leading convection in eastward propagation, tilt clearly westward with height. The frictional moisture convergence mechanism operates to maintain the MJO. Such success can be attributed to the explicit representation of the interactions between convection and large-scale circulations. The simulated event, however, grows faster in phases 2 and 3, and peaks with 30% higher amplitude than that observed, although the 7-km version shows slight improvement. The fast-growth phases are induced by the fast-growing low-level convergence in the Indian Ocean and the strongly biased ITCZ in the west Pacific when the model undergoes a spinup. The simulated OLR has a substantial bias in the tropics. Possible solutions to the deficiencies are discussed.

scholarly journals The Moderate Impact of the 2015 El Niño over East Africa and Its Representation in Seasonal Reforecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7989-8001 ◽  
Author(s):  
David MacLeod ◽  
Cyril Caminade
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
East African ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, has been linked to intense rainfall over East Africa during the short rains season (October–December). However, we show here that during the extremely strong 2015 El Niño the precipitation anomaly over most of East Africa during the short rains season was less intense than experienced during previous El Niños, linked to less intense easterlies over the Indian Ocean. This moderate impact was not indicated by reforecasts from the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, which instead forecast large probabilities of an extreme wet signal, with stronger easterly anomalies over the surface of the Indian Ocean and a colder eastern Indian Ocean/western Pacific than was observed. To confirm the relationship of the eastern Indian Ocean to East African rainfall in the forecast for 2015, atmospheric relaxation experiments are carried out that constrain the east Indian Ocean lower troposphere to reanalysis. By doing so the strong wet forecast signal is reduced. These results raise the possibility that link between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events is too strong in the ECMWF dynamical seasonal forecast system and that model predictions for the East African short rains rainfall during strong El Niño events may have a bias toward high probabilities of wet conditions.

Impact of the Equatorial Wind Stress on the Indian Ocean Shallow Meridional Overturning Circulation During the IOD Mature Phase

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linfang Zhang ◽  
Yaokun Li ◽  
Jianping Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

<p>            This paper investigates the impact of the equatorial wind stress on the Indian Ocean Shallow Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) during the India Ocean Dipole (IOD) mature phase. The results show that the equatorial zonal wind stress directly drives the meridional motion of seawater at the upper level. In normal years, the wind stress in the Indian Ocean is easterly between 30°S-0°and the westerly wind is between 0°and 30°N, which contributes to a southward Ekman transport at the upper level to form the climatological SMOC. During the years of positive IOD events, abnormal easterly wind near the equator, accompanying with the cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) along the coast of Sumatra and Java and the warm SSTA along the coast of East Africa, brings southward Ekman transport south of the equator while northward Ekman transport north of the equator. This leads the seawaters moving away from the equator and hence upwelling near the equator as a consequence, to form a pair of small circulation cell symmetric about the equator.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Ocean Currents on Wind Stress in the Tropical Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neethu Chacko ◽  
M M Ali
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Stress Estimation ◽  
Effect Of Surface

This study examines the effect of surface currents on the bulk algorithm calculation of wind stress estimated using the scatterometer data during 2007-2020 in the Indian Ocean. In the study region as a whole the wind stress decreased by 5.4% by including currents into the wind stress equation. The most significant reduction in the wind stress is found along the most energetic regions with strong currents such as Somali Current, Equatorial Jets and Aghulhas retroflection. A highest reduction of 11.5% is observed along the equator where the Equatorial Jets prevail. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out for the study region and for different seasons to assess the relative impact of winds and currents in the estimation of wind stress by changing the winds while keeping the currents constants and vice versa. The inclusion of currents decreased the wind stress and this decrease is prominent when the currents are stronger. This study showed that equatorial Indian Ocean is the most sensitive region where the current can impact on wind stress estimation. The results showed that uncertainties in the wind stress estimations are quite large at regional levels and hence better representation of wind stress incorporating ocean currents should be considered in the ocean/climatic models for accurate air-sea interaction studies.

scholarly journals Impact of the April–May SAM on Central Pacific Ocean sea temperature over the following three seasons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Liu ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Cheng Sun ◽  
Tao Lian ◽  
Yazhou Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAlthough the impact of the extratropical Pacific signal on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has attracted increasing concern, the impact of Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM)-related signals from outside the southern Pacific Basin on the equatorial sea temperature has received less attention. This study explores the lead correlation between the April–May (AM) SAM and central tropical Pacific sea temperature variability over the following three seasons. For the positive AM SAM case, the related simultaneous warm SST anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean favor significant regulation of vertical circulation in the Indian Ocean with anomalous ascending motion in the tropics. This can further enhance convection over the Marine Continent, which induces a significant horizontal Kelvin response and regulates the vertical Walker circulation. These two processes both result in the anomalous easterlies east of 130° E in the equatorial Pacific during AM. These easterly anomalies favor oceanic upwelling and eastward propagation of the cold water into the central Pacific. The cold water in turn amplifies the development of the easterly wind and further maintains the cold water into the boreal winter. The results presented here not only provide a possible link between extratropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean and climate variation in the equatorial Pacific, but also shed new light on the short-term prediction of tropical central Pacific sea temperature.

scholarly journals Impact of Equatorial Wind Stress on Ekman Transport During the Mature Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linfang Zhang ◽  
Yaokun Li ◽  
Jianping Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of equatorial wind stress on the equatorial Ekman transport during the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mature phase. The results show that the equatorial zonal wind stress directly drives the meridional motion of seawater at the upper levels. In normal years, the zonal wind stress south of the equator is easterly and that north of the equator is westerly, which contributes to southward Ekman transport at the upper levels to form the climatological Indian Ocean shallow meridional overturning circulation. During the years of positive IOD events, abnormal easterly winds near the equator bring southward Ekman transport south of the equator while they bring northward Ekman transport north of the equator. This causes the seawater to move away from the equator and hence induces upwelling near the equator, which forms a pair of small circulation cells that are symmetric about the equator at the upper levels (approximately 100 m deep). The abnormal circulation cell south (north) of the equator strengthens (weakens) the southward (southward) motion south (north) of the equator. During years with negative IOD events, the opposite occurs. In addition, during the mature period of IOD, the remote sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may exert some influence on equatorial wind stress and Ekman transport anomaly but the influence is weak.

scholarly journals Impact of Ocean Currents on Wind Stress in the Tropical Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neethu Chacko ◽  
M M Ali
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Stress Estimation ◽  
Effect Of Surface

This study examines the effect of surface currents on the bulk algorithm calculation of wind stress estimated using the scatterometer data during 2007-2020 in the Indian Ocean. In the study region as a whole the wind stress decreased by 5.4% by including currents into the wind stress equation. The most significant reduction in the wind stress is found along the most energetic regions with strong currents such as Somali Current, Equatorial Jets and Aghulhas retroflection. A highest reduction of 11.5% is observed along the equator where the Equatorial Jets prevail. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out for the study region and for different seasons to assess the relative impact of winds and currents in the estimation of wind stress by changing the winds while keeping the currents constants and vice versa. The inclusion of currents decreased the wind stress and this decrease is prominent when the currents are stronger. This study showed that equatorial Indian Ocean is the most sensitive region where the current can impact on wind stress estimation. The results showed that uncertainties in the wind stress estimations are quite large at regional levels and hence better representation of wind stress incorporating ocean currents should be considered in the ocean/climatic models for accurate air-sea interaction studies.

scholarly journals Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4514-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Pascale Delecluse ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
East African ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract The variability in the East African short rains is investigated using 41-yr data from the observation and 200-yr data from a coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 1 (SINTEX-F1). The model-simulated data provide a scope to understand the climate variability in the region with a better statistical confidence. Most of the variability in the model short rains is linked to the basinwide large-scale coupled mode, that is, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis of observed data and model results reveals that the influence of the IOD on short rains is overwhelming as compared to that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the correlation between ENSO and short rains is insignificant when the IOD influence is excluded. The IOD–short rains relationship does not change significantly in a model experiment in which the ENSO influence is removed by decoupling the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The partial correlation analysis of the model data demonstrates that a secondary influence comes from a regional mode located near the African coast. Inconsistent with the observational findings, the model results show a steady evolution of IOD prior to extreme events of short rains. Dynamically consistent evolution of correlations is found in anomalies of the surface winds, currents, sea surface height, and sea surface temperature. Anomalous changes of the Walker circulation provide a necessary driving mechanism for anomalous moisture transport and convection over the coastal East Africa. The model results nicely augment the observational findings and provide us with a physical basis to consider IOD as a predictor for variations of the short rains. This is demonstrated in detail using the statistical analysis method. The prediction skill of the dipole mode SST index in July and August is 92% for the observation, which scales slightly higher for the model index (96%) in August. As observed in data, the model results show decadal weakening in the relationship between IOD and short rains owing to weakening in the IOD activity.

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