scholarly journals The Atmospheric Response to Positive IPV, Positive AMV, and Their Combination in Boreal Winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4193-4213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dillon Elsbury ◽  
Yannick Peings ◽  
David Saint-Martin ◽  
Hervé Douville ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Aleutian Low ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

AbstractThe interdecadal Pacific oscillation (hereafter termed IPV, using “variability” in lieu of “oscillation”) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (hereafter AMV, similar to IPV) are regulators of global mean temperature, large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional temperature and precipitation, and related extreme events. Despite a growing recognition of their importance, the combined influence of these modes of low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability remains elusive given the short instrumental record and the difficulty of coupled climate models to simulate them satisfactorily. In this study, idealized simulations with two atmospheric global climate models (AGCMs) are used to show a partial cancellation of the North Pacific atmospheric response to positive IPV (i.e., deeper Aleutian low) by the concurrent positive phase of the AMV. This effect arises from a modulation of the interbasin Walker circulation that weakens deep convection in the western Pacific and the associated Rossby wave train into the northern extratropics. The weaker Aleutian low response is associated with less upward wave activity flux in the North Pacific; however, the associated stratospheric jet weakening is similar to when the +IPV alone forces the vortex, as additional upward wave activity flux over Siberia makes up the difference. While comparable warming of the polar stratosphere is found when the positive AMV is included with the positive IPV, the downward propagation of the stratospheric response is significantly reduced, which has implications for the associated surface temperature extremes. The robust anticorrelation between the positive IPV and positive AMV signals over the North Pacific and their lack of additivity highlight the need to consider the IPV–AMV interplay for anticipating decadal changes in mean climate and extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Do Climate Models Capture the Tropical Influences on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability?

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (23) ◽  
pp. 6203-6209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Lienert ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
William J. Merryfield
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed tropical influences on North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. In an ensemble of climate models, the study finds that the simulated North Pacific response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is systematically delayed relative to the observed response because of winter and spring mixed layers in the North Pacific that are too deep and air–sea feedbacks that are too weak. Model biases in mixed layer depth and air–sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by about 30%. The study also shows that simulated North Pacific variability has more power at lower frequencies than is observed because of model errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. Implications of these results for predictions on seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales are discussed.

scholarly journals Atmospheric response to the North Pacific enabled by daily sea surface temperature variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (18) ◽  
pp. 7732-7739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guidi Zhou ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

scholarly journals Seasonal Evolution of Aleutian Low Pressure Systems: Implications for the North Pacific Subpolar Circulation*

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 1317-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Pickart ◽  
Alison M. Macdonald ◽  
G. W. K. Moore ◽  
Ian A. Renfrew ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Aleutian Low ◽  
The North ◽  
Early Fall ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Low Pressure Systems

Abstract The seasonal change in the development of Aleutian low pressure systems from early fall to early winter is analyzed using a combination of meteorological reanalysis fields, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data, and satellite wind data. The time period of the study is September–December 2002, although results are shown to be representative of the long-term climatology. Characteristics of the storms were documented as they progressed across the North Pacific, including their path, central pressure, deepening rate, and speed of translation. Clear patterns emerged. Storms tended to deepen in two distinct geographical locations—the Gulf of Alaska in early fall and the western North Pacific in late fall. In the Gulf of Alaska, a quasi-permanent “notch” in the SST distribution is argued to be of significance. The signature of the notch is imprinted in the atmosphere, resulting in a region of enhanced cyclonic potential vorticity in the lower troposphere that is conducive for storm development. Later in the season, as winter approaches and the Sea of Okhotsk becomes partially ice covered and cold, the air emanating from the Asian continent leads to enhanced baroclinicity in the region south of Kamchatka. This corresponds to enhanced storm cyclogenesis in that region. Consequently, there is a seasonal westward migration of the dominant lobe of the Aleutian low. The impact of the wind stress curl pattern resulting from these two regions of storm development on the oceanic circulation is investigated using historical hydrography. It is argued that the seasonal bimodal input of cyclonic vorticity from the wind may be partly responsible for the two distinct North Pacific subarctic gyres.

scholarly journals Contrastive Influence of ENSO and PNA on Variability and Predictability of North American Winter Precipitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6271-6284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Li ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Ping Liang ◽  
Jieshun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North American ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract In this work, the roles of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the variability and predictability of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and precipitation in North America in winter are examined. It is noted that statistically about 29% of the variance of PNA is linearly linked to ENSO, while the remaining 71% of the variance of PNA might be explained by other processes, including atmospheric internal dynamics and sea surface temperature variations in the North Pacific. The ENSO impact is mainly meridional from the tropics to the mid–high latitudes, while a major fraction of the non-ENSO variability associated with PNA is confined in the zonal direction from the North Pacific to the North American continent. Such interferential connection on PNA as well as on North American climate variability may reflect a competition between local internal dynamical processes (unpredictable fraction) and remote forcing (predictable fraction). Model responses to observed sea surface temperature and model forecasts confirm that the remote forcing is mainly associated with ENSO and it is the major source of predictability of PNA and winter precipitation in North America.

A Synoptic Analysis of the Interannual Variability of Winter Cyclone Activity in the Aleutian Low Region

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 1523-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojie Zhu ◽  
Jilin Sun ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Qinyu Liu ◽  
Jonathan E. Martin
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Aleutian Low ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Interannual Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
Cyclone Frequency ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract An analysis of cyclone activity in winter associated with years of strong and weak Aleutian low in the North Pacific is presented. From 1958 to 2004, 10 winters with a strong Aleutian low are defined as the strong years, while 8 winters with a weak Aleutian low are defined as the weak years. Employing a system-centered Lagrangian method, some characteristics of the cyclone activity in both sets of years are revealed. The cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity are nearly the same in both strong and weak years. The cyclone tracks in the strong years are more zonal than those in the weak years. More intense cyclone events and more large cyclone cases occur in strong years than in weak years and the deepening of cyclones in strong years is stronger than that in weak years. The analyses of geopotential height, wind, stationary Rossby wavenumber, and Eady growth rate index at 500 or 300 hPa reveal that conditions are favorable for more zonal tracks and greater cyclone growth in strong years than in weak years. An estimation of the relative change of cyclone intensity and the relative change of Aleutian low intensity is made, which shows that the interannual change of cyclone intensity is about 73% of the interannual change of Aleutian low intensity. This result suggests that the evolution of individual cyclones may be a significant driver of changes in the Aleutian low.

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