scholarly journals Re-Examining the First Climate Models: Climate Sensitivity of a Modern Radiative–Convective Equilibrium Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8111-8125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Kluft ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Stefan A. Buehler ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Bjorn Stevens

Abstract We revisit clear-sky one-dimensional radiative–convective equilibrium (1D-RCE) and determine its equilibrium climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling (ECS) and associated uncertainty. Our 1D-RCE model, named konrad, uses the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) to calculate radiative fluxes in the same way as in comprehensive climate models. The simulated radiative feedbacks are verified by a line-by-line radiative transfer model, with which we also investigate their spectral distribution. Changing the model configuration of konrad enables a clear separation between the water vapor and the lapse rate feedbacks, as well as the interaction between the two. We find that the radiative feedback and ECS are sensitive to the chosen relative humidity profile, resulting in an ECS range of 2.09–2.40 K. Using larger CO2 forcings we find that the radiative feedback changes up to 10% for surface temperatures of 291–299 K. Although the ECS is similar to previous studies, it arises from the compensation of a larger clear-sky forcing (4.7 W m−2) and more strongly negative feedbacks (−2.3 W m−2 K−1). The lapse rate feedback and the feedback from the interaction of lapse rate and humidity compensate each other, but the degree of compensation depends on the relative humidity profile. Additionally, the temperature profile is investigated in a warming climate. The temperature change at the convective top is half as large as at the surface, consistent with the proportionally higher anvil temperature hypothesis, as long as the humidity is consistently coupled to the temperature profile.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Stretton ◽  
William Morrison ◽  
Robin Hogan ◽  
Sue Grimmond

<p>The heterogenous structure of cities impacts radiative exchanges (e.g. albedo and heat storage). Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often characterise the urban structure with an infinite street canyon – but this does not capture the three-dimensional urban form. SPARTACUS-Urban (SU) - a fast, multi-layer radiative transfer model designed for NWP - is evaluated using the explicit Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model for shortwave fluxes across several model domains – from a regular array of cubes to real cities .</p><p>SU agrees with DART (errors < 5.5% for all variables) when the SU assumptions of building distribution are fulfilled (e.g. randomly distribution). For real-world areas with pitched roofs, SU underestimates the albedo (< 10%) and shortwave transmission to the surface (< 15%), and overestimates wall-plus-roof absorption (9-27%), with errors increasing with solar zenith angle. SU should be beneficial to weather and climate models, as it allows more realistic urban form (cf. most schemes) without large increases in computational cost.</p>


2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 4459-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Stubenrauch ◽  
F. Eddounia ◽  
J. M. Edwards ◽  
A. Macke

Abstract Combined simultaneous satellite observations are used to evaluate the performance of parameterizations of the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds used for radiative flux computations in climate models. Atmospheric and cirrus properties retrieved from Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations are given as input to the radiative transfer model developed for the Met Office climate model to simulate radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Simulated cirrus shortwave (SW) albedos are then compared to those retrieved from collocated Scanner for Radiation Budget (ScaRaB) observations. For the retrieval, special care has been given to angular direction models. Three parameterizations of cirrus ice crystal optical properties are represented in the Met Office radiative transfer model. These parameterizations are based on different physical approximations and different hypotheses on crystal habit. One parameterization assumes pristine ice crystals and two ice crystal aggregates. By relating the cirrus ice water path (IWP) retrieved from the effective infrared emissivity to the cirrus SW albedo, differences between the parameterizations are amplified. This study shows that pristine crystals seem to be plausible only for cirrus with IWP less than 30 g m−2. For larger IWP, ice crystal aggregates lead to cirrus SW albedos in better agreement with the observations. The data also indicate that climate models should allow the cirrus effective ice crystal diameter (De) to increase with IWP, especially in the range up to 30 g m−2. For cirrus with IWP less than 20 g m−2, this would lead to SW albedos that are about 0.02 higher than the ones of a constant De of 55 μm.


2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 1609-1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Petrenko ◽  
A. Ignatov ◽  
Y. Kihai ◽  
A. Heidinger

Abstract The Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) generates clear-sky products, such as SST, clear-sky radiances, and aerosol, from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-like measurements. The ACSPO clear-sky mask (ACSM) identifies clear-sky pixels within the ACSPO products. This paper describes the ACSM structure and compares the performances of ACSM and its predecessor, Clouds from AVHRR Extended Algorithm (CLAVRx). ACSM essentially employs online clear-sky radiative transfer simulations enabled within ACSPO with the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) in conjunction with numerical weather prediction atmospheric [Global Forecast System (GFS)] and SST [Reynolds daily high-resolution blended SST (DSST)] fields. The baseline ACSM tests verify the accuracy of fitting observed brightness temperatures with CRTM, check retrieved SST for consistency with Reynolds SST, and identify ambient cloudiness at the boundaries of cloudy systems. Residual cloud effects are screened out with several tests, adopted from CLAVRx, and with the SST spatial uniformity test designed to minimize misclassification of sharp SST gradients as clouds. Cross-platform and temporal consistencies of retrieved SSTs are maintained by accounting for SST and brightness temperature biases, estimated within ACSPO online and independently from ACSM. The performance of ACSM is characterized in terms of statistics of deviations of retrieved SST from the DSST. ACSM increases the amount of “clear” pixels by 30% to 40% and improves statistics of retrieved SST compared with CLAVRx. ACSM is also shown to be capable of producing satisfactory statistics of SST anomalies if the reference SST field for the exact date of observations is unavailable at the time of processing.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1098-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Xia ◽  
Haobo Tan ◽  
Ling Chen ◽  
Weiqiang Mo ◽  
Zhiyang Yuan ◽  
...  

AbstractObservation of UV radiation is of major importance to human health and to the calculation of photochemical reaction rates. However, the sensitivity of UV radiometers decays because of equipment aging. A correction method is therefore proposed by using a decrement formula that is approximately a quadratic function of time and is obtained by fitting the clear-sky observation data from an aged UVS-AB-T UV radiometer with the data simulated by the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) radiative transfer model. The corrected data from the older radiometer are verified by the data from another newer radiometer on selected clear-sky days. The results show a high correlation and a low bias between the radiometers, and the mean of the corrected data from the older radiometer is 94.5% of that from the newer radiometer. After a long time of use, the decrement of the observation data would increase dramatically and errors of the data after correction would still be significant. In Dongguan, China, a recommendation is made that a UV radiometer should not be used for more than 5 years when the decrement rate reaches 50%.


2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 493-515 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. K. Mukkavilli ◽  
A. A. Prasad ◽  
R. A. Taylor ◽  
A. Troccoli ◽  
M. J. Kay

AbstractDirect normal irradiance (DNI) is the main input for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies—an important component in future energy scenarios. DNI forecast accuracy is sensitive to radiative transfer schemes (RTSs) and microphysics in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Additionally, NWP models have large regional aerosol uncertainties. Dust aerosols can significantly attenuate DNI in extreme cases, with marked consequences for applications such as CSP. To date, studies have not compared the skill of different physical parameterization schemes for predicting hourly DNI under varying aerosol conditions over Australia. The authors address this gap by aiming to provide the first Weather and Forecasting (WRF) Model DNI benchmarks for Australia as baselines for assessing future aerosol-assimilated models. Annual and day-ahead simulations against ground measurements at selected sites focusing on an extreme dust event are run. Model biases are assessed for five shortwave RTSs at 30- and 10-km grid resolutions, along with the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme in three different microphysics configurations: no aerosols, fixed optical properties, and monthly climatologies. From the annual simulation, the best schemes were the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for global climate models (RRTMG), followed by the new Goddard and Dudhia schemes, despite the relative simplicity of the latter. These top three RTSs all had 1.4–70.8 W m−2 lower mean absolute error than persistence. RRTMG with monthly aerosol climatologies was the best combination. The extreme dust event had large DNI mean bias overpredictions (up to 4.6 times), compared to background aerosol results. Dust storm–aware DNI forecasts could benefit from RRTMG with high-resolution aerosol inputs.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 13559-13572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Cusworth ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Eric M. Leibensperger ◽  
Michael J. Iacono

Abstract. In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation (SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (US) has increased by 0.58–1.0 Wm−2 a−1 over the 2000–2014 time frame, simultaneously with reductions in US aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 3.3–5.0  ×  10−3 a−1. Establishing a link between these two trends, however, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol–radiation effects of decreasing US aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a one-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000–2014 measurements of AOD at two Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and southeastern United States. Observations characterized as clear-sky may in fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these effects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that 2000–2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 Wm−2 a−1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 Wm−2 a−1 at Bondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed trends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD reproduces 20–26 % of the seasonal (June–September, JJAS) variability in clear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS variability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface flux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network (ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide with increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the central US. The 1990–2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central US are also of a similar magnitude to our modeled 2000–2014 clear-sky trends. Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Jahani ◽  
Hendrik Andersen ◽  
Josep Calbó ◽  
Josep-Abel González ◽  
Jan Cermak

Abstract. This study presents an approach for quantification of cloud-aerosol transition zone broadband longwave radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) during daytime over the ocean, based on satellite observations and radiative transfer simulation. Specifically, we used several products from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) sensors for identification and selection of CERES footprints with horizontally homogeneous transition zone and clear-sky conditions. For the selected transition zone footprints, radiative effect was calculated as the difference between the instantaneous CERES TOA upwelling broadband longwave radiance observations and corresponding clear-sky radiance simulations. The clear-sky radiances were simulated using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model fed by the hourly ERA5 reanalysis (fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis) atmospheric and surface data. The CERES radiance observations corresponding to the clear-sky footprints detected were also used for validating the simulated clear-sky radiances. We tested this approach using the radiative measurements made by the MODIS and CERES instruments onboard Aqua platform over the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean during August 2010. For the studied period and domain, transition zone radiative effect (given in flux units) is on average equal to 8.0 ± 3.7 W m−2 (heating effect; median: 5.4 W m−2), although cases with radiative effects as large as 50 W m−2 were found.


2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (22) ◽  
pp. 13,698-13,714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica K. Dolinar ◽  
Xiquan Dong ◽  
Baike Xi ◽  
Jonathan H. Jiang ◽  
Norman G. Loeb

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 222
Author(s):  
Xingming Liang ◽  
Quanhua Liu

A fully connected deep neural network (FCDN) clear-sky mask (CSM) algorithm (FCDN_CSM) was developed to assist the FCDN-based Community Radiative Transfer Model (FCDN_CRTM) to reproduce the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) clear-sky radiances in five thermal emission M (TEB/M) bands. The model design was referenced and enhanced from its earlier version (version 1), and was trained and tested in the global ocean clear-sky domain using six dispersion days’ data from 2019 to 2020 as inputs and a modified NOAA Advanced Clear-Sky Processor over Ocean (ACSPO) CSM product as reference labels. The improved FCDN_CSM (version 2) was further enhanced by including daytime data, which was not collected in version 1. The trained model was then employed to predict VIIRS CSM over multiple days in 2020 as an accuracy and stability check. The results were validated against the biases between the sensor observations and CRTM calculations (O-M). The objectives were to (1) enhance FCDN_CSM performance to include daytime analysis, and improve model stability, accuracy, and efficiency; and (2) further understand the model performance based on a combination of the statistics and physical interpretation. According to the analyses of the F-score, the prediction result showed ~96% and ~97% accuracy for day and night, respectively. The type Cloud was the most accurate, followed by Clear-Sky. The O-M mean biases are comparable to the ACSPO CSM for all bands, both day and night. The standard deviations (STD) were slightly degraded in long wave IRs (M14, M15, and M16), mainly due to contamination by a 3% misclassification of the type Cloud, which may require the model to be further fine-tuned to improve prediction accuracy in the future. However, the consistent O-M means and STDs persist throughout the prediction period, suggesting that FCDN_CSM version 2 is robust and does not have significant overfitting. Given its high F-scores, spatial and long-term stability for both day and night, high efficiency, and acceptable O-M means and STDs, FCDN_CSM version 2 is deemed to be ready for use in the FCDN_CRTM.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 13043-13062
Author(s):  
K. Tourpali ◽  
A. F. Bais ◽  
A. Kazantzidis ◽  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
...  

Abstract. We have used total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs) to project future solar ultraviolet radiation levels at the surface in the 21st century. The CCM simulations are used as input to a radiative transfer model for the simulation of the corresponding future UV irradiance levels under cloud free conditions, presented here as time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon covering the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected ozone recovery, at rates which are larger in the first half of the 21st century, compared to the period up to 2100. The magnitude of these decreases varies with latitude and is more pronounced at areas where ozone has been depleted most considerably after 1980. Over midlatitudes surface erythemal irradiance decreases between 5 and 15% by 2100 relative to 2000, while at the southern high latitudes these changes are twice as much. Climate change may affect future cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, the effects of which are not included in this study. Therefore, the actual changes in future UV radiation are likely to change accordingly in the areas affected.


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