Intensified impacts of central Pacific ENSO on the reversal of December and January surface air temperature anomaly over China since 1997

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-49
Author(s):  
Hua Li ◽  
Ke Fan ◽  
Shengping He ◽  
Yong Liu ◽  
Xing Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Siberian High ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Air Temperature Anomaly

AbstractThe reversal of surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) in winter brings a great challenge for short-term climate prediction and the mechanisms are not well understood. This study found that the reversal of SATA between December and January over China could be demonstrated by the second leading mode of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis on the December-January SATA. It further reveals that the central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (CP ENSO) has contributed more influences on such a reversal of SATA since 1997. CP ENSO shows positive but weak correlations with SATA over China in both December and January during pre-1996, whereas it shows significantly negative and positive correlations with the SATA in December and January, respectively, during post-1997. The CP ENSO-related circulations suggest that the change of the Siberian high plays an essential role in the reversal of SATA since 1997. Sea surface temperature anomalies pattern associated with the CP ENSO leads to a westward-replaced Walker circulation which alters the local meridional circulation and further impacts the Siberian high and SATA over China since 1997. Moreover, the seasonal northward-march of convergence zone from December to January causes northward-replaced west branch of the Walker circulation in January compared with that in December. The west branch of Walker circulation in December and January directly modulates local Hadley and Ferrel circulations, and then causes contrasting Siberian high anomalies through inducing opposite vertical motions anomalies over Siberia. The reversal of SATA between December and January is therefore more frequently observed over China since 1997. The above-mentioned mechanisms are validated by the analysis at pentad time scale and confirmed by numerical simulations.

scholarly journals What Drives the North Atlantic Oscillation’s Temperature Anomaly Pattern? Part I: The Growth and Decay of the Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph P. Clark ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Skin Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Advection ◽  
Anomaly Pattern ◽  
Air Temperature Anomaly

Abstract Composite analysis is used to examine the physical processes that drive the growth and decay of the surface air temperature anomaly pattern associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Using the thermodynamic energy equation that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts implements in their reanalysis model, we show that advection of the climatological temperature field by the anomalous wind drives the surface air temperature anomaly pattern for both NAO phases. Diabatic processes exist in strong opposition to this temperature advection and eventually cause the surface air temperature anomalies to return to their climatological values. Specifically, over Greenland, Europe, and the United States, longwave heating/cooling opposes horizontal temperature advection while over northern Africa vertical mixing opposes horizontal temperature advection. Despite the pronounced spatial correspondence between the skin temperature and surface air temperature anomaly patterns, the physical processes that drive these two temperature anomalies associated with the NAO are found to be distinct. The skin temperature anomaly pattern is driven by downward longwave radiation whereas stated above, the surface air temperature anomaly pattern is driven by horizontal temperature advection. This implies that the surface energy budget, although a useful diagnostic tool for understanding skin temperature changes, should not be used to understand surface air temperature changes.

Comparisons of different definitions of the western Pacific pattern and associated winter climate anomalies in Eurasia and North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasi Aru
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Western Pacific Pattern

<p>The western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most prominent teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in boreal winter. There exist several methods employed to identify the WP in the literature. This study compares eight WPs defined by different methods. Correlation coefficients among the eight WP indices (WPIs) show considerable spreads, though most of them are statistically significant. The meridional dipole structure of WP can be captured by all of the WPIs, but it shows large spreads in the locations of the centers. Several WPIs produce a significant correlation with the winter Arctic Oscillation, with marked signals of atmospheric anomalies over the Arctic region. Connections of the WPs with the simultaneous winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) depend largely upon their definitions. Impacts of the WPs on the surface air temperature over many parts of Eurasia and North America are also sensitive to their definitions. Differences in the surface air temperature anomalies are closely related to differences in the spatial structure of the WPs. Finally, we define a new WP index as differences in the area-average 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies between subtropics and mid-latitude of northwestern Pacific. This newly defined WP index has a close relation with the above eight WPIs, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America.</p>

scholarly journals The Early 1990s Change in ENSO–PSA–SAM Relationships and Its Impact on Southern Hemisphere Climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9393-9408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Houk Paek ◽  
Eric S. Saltzman ◽  
Tong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract This study uncovers an early 1990s change in the relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two leading modes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric variability: the southern annular mode (SAM) and the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern. During austral spring, while the PSA maintained a strong correlation with ENSO throughout the period 1948–2014, the SAM–ENSO correlation changed from being weak before the early 1990s to being strong afterward. Through the ENSO connection, PSA and SAM became more in-phase correlated after the early 1990s. The early 1990s is also the time when ENSO changed from being dominated by the eastern Pacific (EP) type to being dominated by the central Pacific (CP) type. Analyses show that, while the EP ENSO can excite only the PSA, the CP ENSO can excite both the SAM and PSA through tropospheric and stratospheric pathway mechanisms. The more in-phase relationship between SAM and PSA impacted the post-1990s Antarctic climate in at least two aspects: 1) a stronger Antarctic sea ice dipole structure around the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas due to intensified geopotential height anomalies over the region and 2) a shift in the phase relationships of surface air temperature anomalies among East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. These findings imply that ENSO–Antarctic climate relations depend on the dominant ENSO type and that ENSO forcing has become more important to the Antarctic sea ice and surface air temperature variability in the past two decades and will in the coming decades if the dominance of CP ENSO persists.

scholarly journals Variability of Indian summer monsoon: Relationship with surface air temperature anomalies over northern hemisphere

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-198
Author(s):  
R. K. VERMA
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies

Thirty year (1950-79) time series of Monsoon Index (MI) is correlated with the gridded surface air temperature data over northern hemisphere land at various time lags of months (i.e., months preceding concurrent and succeeding to the monsoon season) to identify tele-connections of monsoon with the northern hemisphere surface air temperature anomalies. .   Out of three key regions identified which show statistically significant relationship of monsoon rainfall, two regions are in the higher latitudinal belt of 40oN- 70oN over North America and Eurasia which show positive correlations with temperatures during northern winter particularly during  January and February. The third region is located over northwest India and adjoining Pakistan, where the maximum positive correlation is observed to occur during the pre-li1onsoon months of April and May. These relationships suggest that cooler northern hemisphere during the preceding seasons of winter/spring over certain key regions are generally associated with below normal summer monsoon rainfall over India and vice-versa which could be useful predictors for long-range forecasting of monsoon.   There are two large regions in the northern tropics, namely, Asian and African monsoons whose temperatures reveal strong negative correlations with monsoon rainfall during the seasons concurrent and subsequent to the summer monsoon season. However, persistence of this relationship for longer period of about two seasons after the monsoon, suggests the dominant influence of  ENSO (El. Nino-Southern Oscillation) on tropical climate.  

scholarly journals The Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Canadian Wintertime Surface Air Temperature

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (7) ◽  
pp. 2250-2262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

Using the homogenized Canadian historical daily surface air temperature (SAT) for 210 relatively evenly distributed stations across Canada, the lagged composites and probability of the above- and below-normal SAT in Canada for different phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the winter season are analyzed. Significant positive SAT anomalies and high probability of above-normal events in the central and eastern Canada are found 5–15 days following MJO phase 3, which corresponds to an enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent and a reduced convective activity near the tropical central Pacific. On the other hand, a positive SAT anomaly appears over a large part of northern and northeastern Canada about 5–15 days after the MJO is detected in phase 7. An analysis of the evolution of the 500-hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure anomalies indicates that the Canadian SAT anomaly is a result of a Rossby wave train associated with the tropical convection anomaly of the MJO. Hence, the MJO phase provides useful information for the extended-range forecast of Canadian winter surface air temperature. This result also provides an important reference for numerical model verifications.

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 3279-3293 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Quan ◽  
M. Hoerling ◽  
J. Whitaker ◽  
G. Bates ◽  
T. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study the authors diagnose the sources for the contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and empirical methods. The dynamical methods include ensemble simulations with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed monthly global SSTs from 1950 to 1999, and ensemble AGCM experiments forced by idealized SST anomalies. The empirical methods involve a suite of reductions of the AGCM simulations. These include uni- and multivariate regression models that encapsulate the simultaneous and one-season lag linear connections between seasonal mean tropical SST anomalies and U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. Nearly all of the AGCM skill in U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature, arising from global SST influences, can be explained by a single degree of freedom in the tropical SST field—that associated with the linear atmospheric signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results support previous findings regarding the preeminence of ENSO as a U.S. skill source. The diagnostic methods used here exposed another skill source that appeared to be of non-ENSO origins. In late autumn, when the AGCM simulation skill of U.S. temperatures peaked in absolute value and in spatial coverage, the majority of that originated from SST variability in the subtropical west Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. Hindcast experiments were performed for 1950–99 that revealed most of the simulation skill of the U.S. seasonal climate to be recoverable at one-season lag. The skill attributable to the AGCMs was shown to achieve parity with that attributable to empirical models derived purely from observational data. The diagnostics promote the interpretation that only limited advances in U.S. seasonal prediction skill should be expected from methods seeking to capitalize on sea surface predictors alone, and that advances that may occur in future decades could be readily masked by inherent multidecadal fluctuations in skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.

An Intraseasonal Mode Linking Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over Arctic and Eurasian Continent

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract Key processes associated with the leading intraseasonal variability mode of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and the Arctic region are investigated in this study. Characterized by a dipole distribution in SAT anomalies centered over north Eurasia and the Arctic, respectively, and coherent temperature anomalies vertically extending from the surface to 300hPa, this leading intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation have pronounced influences on global surface temperature anomalies including the East Asian winter monsoon region. By taking advantage of realistic simulations of the intraseasonal SAT mode in a global climate model, it is illustrated that temperature anomalies in the troposphere associated with the leading SAT mode are mainly due to dynamic processes, especially via the horizontal advection of winter mean temperature by intraseasonal circulation. While the cloud-radiative feedback is not critical in sustaining the temperature variability in the troposphere, it is found to play a crucial role in coupling temperature anomalies at the surface and in the free-atmosphere through anomalous surface downward longwave radiation. The variability in clouds associated with the intraseasonal SAT mode is closely linked to moisture anomalies generated by similar advective processes as for temperature anomalies. Model experiments suggest that this leading intraseasonal SAT mode can be sustained by internal atmospheric processes in the troposphere over the mid-to-high latitudes by excluding forcings from Arctic sea ice variability, tropical convective variability, and the stratospheric processes.

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