scholarly journals Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-64
Author(s):  
Yu-Chiao Liang ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Elisa Manzini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea

AbstractTo examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily-varying sea-ice, sea-surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979-2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea-level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drives a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual co-variability between sea-ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the co-variability in MMEMs. The interannual sea-ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea-ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

scholarly journals Comparison of ERA5 and ERA-Interim near surface air temperature and precipitation over Arctic sea ice: Effects on sea ice thermodynamics and evolution

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caixin Wang ◽  
Robert M. Graham ◽  
Keguang Wang ◽  
Sebastian Gerland ◽  
Mats A. Granskog
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Model

Abstract. Rapid changes are occurring in the Arctic, including a reduction in sea ice thickness and coverage and a shift towards younger and thinner sea ice. Snow and sea ice models are often used to study these ongoing changes in the Arctic, and are typically forced by atmospheric reanalyses in absence of observations. ERA5 is a new global reanalysis that will replace the widely used ERA-Interim (ERA-I). In this study, we compare the 2 m air temperature (T2M) and precipitation between ERA I and ERA5, and evaluate these products using buoy observations from Arctic sea ice. We further assess how biases in reanalyses influence the snow and sea ice evolution in the Arctic, when used to force a thermodynamic sea ice model. We find that both reanalyses have a warm bias over Arctic sea ice in relation to the buoy observations. The warm bias is smaller in the warm season, and larger in the cold season, especially when the T2M is lower than −25 °C. Interestingly, the warm bias in the new ERA5 is on average 2.1 °C (daily mean) larger than ERA-I during the cold season. While ERA-I is drier than most modern reanalyses in the Arctic, the total precipitation along the buoy trajectories is often lower in ERA5 than in ERA-I. Nonetheless, the snowfall products are broadly similar for both ERA I and ERA5. ERA-I had substantial anomalous Arctic rainfall, which is greatly reduced in ERA5. Simulations with a freezing degree days (FDD) model and a 1D thermodynamic sea ice model demonstrate that the warm bias in ERA5 acts to reduce thermodynamic ice growth. However, the lower precipitation in ERA5 results in a thinner snow pack that allows more heat loss to the atmosphere. Thus, the larger warm bias and lower precipitation in ERA5, compared with ERA I, compensate in terms of the effect on winter ice growth. Ultimately, we find slightly thicker ice at the end of growth season when using ERA5 forcing, compared with ERA-I. Thus differences in the precipitation fields of the two reanalyses have a larger influence on the sea ice evolution than the T2M.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Atmospheric Warming in Winter and the Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 2869-2888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srdjan Dobricic ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati ◽  
Simone Russo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The ongoing shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is likely linked to the global temperature rise, the pronounced warming in the Arctic, and possibly weather anomalies in the midlatitudes. By evaluating independent components of global atmospheric energy anomalies in winters from 1980 to 2015, the study finds the link between the sea ice melting in the Arctic and the combination of only three well-known atmospheric oscillation patterns approximating observed spatial variations of near-surface temperature trends in winter. The three patterns are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian blocking (SB), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first two are directly related to the ongoing sea ice cover shrinkage in the Barents Sea and the hemispheric increase of near-surface temperature. By independent dynamical processes they connect the sea ice melting and related atmospheric perturbations in the Arctic either with the negative phase of the NAO or the negative trend of atmospheric temperatures over the tropical Pacific. The study further shows that the ongoing sea ice melting may often imply the formation of large-scale circulation patterns bringing the recent trend of colder winters in densely populated areas like Europe and North America.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu‐Chiao Liang ◽  
Young‐Oh Kwon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Stephen Yeager ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252-252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

scholarly journals Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1383-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Massonnet ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
C. M. Bitz ◽  
G. Philippon-Berthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Volume Characteristics

Abstract. We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario.

scholarly journals The Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Area Index Records versus Measured and Modeled Temperature Data

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Scafetta ◽  
Adriano Mazzarella
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Antarctic

Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled. During the last 7 years the Arctic sea-ice area has stabilized while the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased at a rate significantly higher than during the previous decades; that is, the sea-ice area of both regions has experienced a positive acceleration. This result is quite robust because it is confirmed by alternative temperature climate indices of the same regions. We also found that a significant 4-5-year natural oscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas. On the contrary, we found that the CMIP5 general circulation models have predicted significant warming in both polar sea regions and failed to reproduce the strong 4-5-year oscillation. Because the CMIP5 GCM simulations are inconsistent with the observations, we suggest that important natural mechanisms of climate change are missing in the models.

scholarly journals The Community Climate System Model Version 4

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 4973-4991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Gent ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Leo J. Donner ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Elizabeth C. Hunke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Community Climate System Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Arctic Sea

The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1° results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4°-resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in CCSM4 producing El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than in CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. These changes also improve the Madden–Julian oscillation and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the Gulf Stream path and the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than CCSM3, and for several reasons the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in CCSM4. An ensemble of twentieth-century simulations produces a good match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4°C. This is consistent with the fact that CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of shortwave and longwave cloud forcings.

scholarly journals Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 3945-3962 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice is already having profound environmental, societal, and ecological impacts locally. A highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. There is emerging evidence that the geographical location of sea ice loss is critically important in determining the large-scale atmospheric circulation response and associated midlatitude impacts. However, such regional dependencies have not been explored in a thorough and systematic manner. To make progress on this issue, this study analyzes ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with sea ice loss separately in nine regions of the Arctic, to elucidate the distinct responses to regional sea ice loss. The results suggest that in some regions, sea ice loss triggers large-scale dynamical responses, whereas in other regions sea ice loss induces only local thermodynamical changes. Sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas is unique in driving a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, followed in time by a tropospheric circulation response that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation. For October–March, the largest spatial-scale responses are driven by sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk; however, different regions assume greater importance in other seasons. The atmosphere responds very differently to regional sea ice losses than to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, and the response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss cannot be obtained by the linear addition of the responses to regional sea ice losses. The results imply that diversity in past studies of the simulated response to Arctic sea ice loss can be partly explained by the different spatial patterns of sea ice loss imposed.

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