A Regional Seasonal Forecast Model of Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent: Reflected Solar Radiation vs. Late Winter Coastal Divergence

AbstractThinning sea ice cover in the Arctic is associated with larger interannual variability in the minimum Sea Ice Extent (SIE). The current generation of forced or fully coupled models, however, have difficulty predicting SIE anomalies from the long-term trend, highlighting the need to better identify the mechanisms involved in the seasonal evolution of sea ice cover. One such mechanism is Coastal Divergence (CD), a proxy for ice thickness anomalies based on late winter ice motion, quantified using Lagrangian ice tracking. CD gains predictive skill through the positive feedback of surface albedo anomalies, mirrored in Reflected Solar Radiation (RSR), during melt season. Exploring the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to minimum SIE predictability, RSR, initial SIE (iSIE) and CD are compared as predictors using a regional seasonal sea ice forecast model for July 1, June 1 and May 1 forecast dates for all Arctic peripheral seas. The predictive skill of June RSR anomalies mainly originates from open water fraction at the surface, i.e. June iSIE and June RSR have equal predictive skill for most seas. The finding is supported by the surprising positive correlation found between June Melt Pond Fraction (MPF) and June RSR in all peripheral seas: MPF anomalies indicate presence of ice or open water that is key to creating minimum SIE anomalies. This contradicts models that show correlation between melt onset, MPF and the minimum SIE. A hindcast model shows that for a May 1 forecast, CD anomalies have better predictive skill than RSR anomalies for most peripheral seas.

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Arctic sea-ice conditions and the distribution of solar radiation during summer

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0260305500014439 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 25 ◽

pp. 445-450 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Donald K. Perovich ◽

Walter B. Tucker

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Open Water ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Feedback Mechanism ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Melt Ponds ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

Median Area

Understanding the interaction of solar radiation with the ice cover is critical in determining the heat and mass balance of the Arctic ice pack, and in assessing potential impacts due to climate change. Because of the importance of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, information on the surface state of the ice cover is needed. Observations of the surface slate of sea ice were obtained from helicopter photography missions made during the 1994 Arctic Ocean Section cruise. Photographs from one flight, taken during the height of the melt season (31 July 1994) at 76° N, 172° W, were analyzed in detail. Bare ice covered 82% of the total area, melt ponds 12%, and open water 6%, There was considerable variability in these area fractions on scales < 1 km2. Sample areas >2 3 km2gave representative values of ice concentration and pond fraction. Melt ponds were numerous, with a number density of 1800 ponds km-2. The melt ponds had a mean area of 62 m2a median area of 14 m2, and a size distribution that was well lit by a cumulative lognormal distribution. While leads make up only a small portion of the total area, they are the source of virtually all of the solar energy input to the ocean.

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Arctic sea-ice conditions and the distribution of solar radiation during summer

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0260305500014439 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 25 ◽

pp. 445-450 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Donald K. Perovich ◽

Walter B. Tucker

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Open Water ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Feedback Mechanism ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Melt Ponds ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

Median Area

Understanding the interaction of solar radiation with the ice cover is critical in determining the heat and mass balance of the Arctic ice pack, and in assessing potential impacts due to climate change. Because of the importance of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, information on the surface state of the ice cover is needed. Observations of the surface slate of sea ice were obtained from helicopter photography missions made during the 1994 Arctic Ocean Section cruise. Photographs from one flight, taken during the height of the melt season (31 July 1994) at 76° N, 172° W, were analyzed in detail. Bare ice covered 82% of the total area, melt ponds 12%, and open water 6%, There was considerable variability in these area fractions on scales < 1 km2. Sample areas >2 3 km2 gave representative values of ice concentration and pond fraction. Melt ponds were numerous, with a number density of 1800 ponds km-2. The melt ponds had a mean area of 62 m2 a median area of 14 m2, and a size distribution that was well lit by a cumulative lognormal distribution. While leads make up only a small portion of the total area, they are the source of virtually all of the solar energy input to the ocean.

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Observations and Simulations of Meteorological Conditions over Arctic Thick Sea Ice in Late Winter during the Transarktika 2019 Expedition

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020174 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 174

Author(s):

Günther Heinemann ◽

Sascha Willmes ◽

Lukas Schefczyk ◽

Alexander Makshtas ◽

Vasilii Kustov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Open Water ◽

The Arctic ◽

Late Winter ◽

Good Representation ◽

Hourly Temperature ◽

Ice Model

The parameterization of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes is a challenge for regional climate models (RCMs) of the Arctic, particularly for wintertime conditions, when small fractions of thin ice or open water cause strong modifications of the boundary layer. Thus, the treatment of sea ice and sub-grid flux parameterizations in RCMs is of crucial importance. However, verification data sets over sea ice for wintertime conditions are rare. In the present paper, data of the ship-based experiment Transarktika 2019 during the end of the Arctic winter for thick one-year ice conditions are presented. The data are used for the verification of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). In addition, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are used for the comparison of ice surface temperature (IST) simulations of the CCLM sea ice model. CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the Norwegian and Barents Seas with 5 km resolution and is run with different configurations of the sea ice model and sub-grid flux parameterizations. The use of a new set of parameterizations yields improved results for the comparisons with in-situ data. Comparisons with MODIS IST allow for a verification over large areas and show also a good performance of CCLM. The comparison with twice-daily radiosonde ascents during Transarktika 2019, hourly microwave water vapor measurements of first 5 km in the atmosphere and hourly temperature profiler data show a very good representation of the temperature, humidity and wind structure of the whole troposphere for CCLM.

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Late-Twentieth-Century Simulation of Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Properties in the CCSM4

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00201.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 25 (5) ◽

pp. 1431-1452 ◽

Cited By ~ 82

Author(s):

Alexandra Jahn ◽

Kara Sterling ◽

Marika M. Holland ◽

Jennifer E. Kay ◽

James A. Maslanik ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Twentieth Century ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Motion Field ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Ensemble Mean

To establish how well the new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) simulates the properties of the Arctic sea ice and ocean, results from six CCSM4 twentieth-century ensemble simulations are compared here with the available data. It is found that the CCSM4 simulations capture most of the important climatological features of the Arctic sea ice and ocean state well, among them the sea ice thickness distribution, fraction of multiyear sea ice, and sea ice edge. The strongest bias exists in the simulated spring-to-fall sea ice motion field, the location of the Beaufort Gyre, and the temperature of the deep Arctic Ocean (below 250 m), which are caused by deficiencies in the simulation of the Arctic sea level pressure field and the lack of deep-water formation on the Arctic shelves. The observed decrease in the sea ice extent and the multiyear ice cover is well captured by the CCSM4. It is important to note, however, that the temporal evolution of the simulated Arctic sea ice cover over the satellite era is strongly influenced by internal variability. For example, while one ensemble member shows an even larger decrease in the sea ice extent over 1981–2005 than that observed, two ensemble members show no statistically significant trend over the same period. It is therefore important to compare the observed sea ice extent trend not just with the ensemble mean or a multimodel ensemble mean, but also with individual ensemble members, because of the strong imprint of internal variability on these relatively short trends.

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Regional September Sea Ice Forecasting with Complex Networks and Gaussian Processes

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-19-0107.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (3) ◽

pp. 793-806

Author(s):

William Gregory ◽

Michel Tsamados ◽

Julienne Stroeve ◽

Peter Sollich

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Gaussian Process Regression ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Series Data ◽

Lead Times ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent

Abstract Reliable predictions of the Arctic sea ice cover are becoming of paramount importance for Arctic communities and industry stakeholders. In this study pan-Arctic and regional September mean sea ice extents are forecast with lead times of up to 3 months using a complex network statistical approach. This method exploits relationships within climate time series data by constructing regions of spatiotemporal homogeneity (i.e., nodes), and subsequently deriving teleconnection links between them. Here the nodes and links of the networks are generated from monthly mean sea ice concentration fields in June, July, and August; hence, individual networks are constructed for each respective month. Network information is then utilized within a linear Gaussian process regression forecast model, a Bayesian inference technique, in order to generate predictions of sea ice extent. Pan-Arctic forecasts capture a significant amount of the variability in the satellite observations of September sea ice extent, with detrended predictive skills of 0.53, 0.62, and 0.81 at 3-, 2-, and 1-month lead times, respectively. Regional forecasts are also performed for nine Arctic regions. On average, the highest predictive skill is achieved in the Canadian Archipelago, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, although the ability to accurately predict many of these regions appears to be changing over time.

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Seasonal changes in Arctic sea-ice morphology

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756401781818716 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 171-176 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Donald K. Perovich ◽

Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge ◽

Walter B. Tucker

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Heat Budget ◽

Open Water ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Surface ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Dynamic Forcing ◽

Break Up

AbstractThe morphology of the Arctic sea-ice cover undergoes large changes over an annual cycle. These changes have a significant impact on the heat budget of the ice cover, primarily by affecting the distribution of the solar radiation absorbed in the ice-ocean system. In spring, the ice is snow-covered and ridges are the prominent features. The pack consists of large angular floes, with a small amount of open water contained primarily in linear leads. By the end of summer the ice cover has undergone a major transformation. The snow cover is gone, many of the ridges have been reduced to hummocks and the ice surface is mottled with melt ponds. One surface characteristic that changes little during the summer is the appearance of the bare ice, which remains white despite significant melting. The large floes have broken into a mosaic of smaller, rounded floes surrounded by a lace of open water. Interestingly, this break-up occurs during summer when the dynamic forcing and the internal ice stress are small During the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field experiment we had an opportunity to observe the break-up process both on a small scale from the ice surface, and on a larger scale via aerial photographs. Floe break-up resulted in large part from thermal deterioration of the ice. The large floes of spring are riddled with cracks and leads that formed and froze during fall, winter and spring. These features melt open during summer, weakening the ice so that modest dynamic forcing can break apart the large floes into many fragments. Associated with this break-up is an increase in the number of floes, a decrease in the size of floes, an increase in floe perimeter and an increase in the area of open water.

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Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756506781828566 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 52 (178) ◽

pp. 433-439 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Larissa Nazarenko ◽

Nickolai Tausnev ◽

James Hansen

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Surface Pressure ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Ice Cover ◽

The Arctic ◽

Normal Surface ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Polar Cell

AbstractUsing a global climate model coupled with an ocean and a sea-ice model, we compare the effects of doubling CO2 and halving CO2 on sea-ice cover and connections with the atmosphere and ocean. An overall warming in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction of sea-ice extent by 15%, with maximum decrease in summer and autumn, consistent with observed seasonal sea-ice changes. The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere circulation is reflected in the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), associated with higher-than-normal surface pressure south of about 50° N and lower-than-normal surface pressure over the high northern latitudes. Strengthening the polar cell causes enhancement of westerlies around the Arctic perimeter during winter. Cooling, in the 0.5 × CO2 experiment, leads to thicker and more extensive sea ice. In the Southern Hemisphere, the increase in ice-covered area (28%) dominates the ice-thickness increase (5%) due to open ocean to the north. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea-ice cover increases by only 8% due to the enclosed land/sea configuration, but sea ice becomes much thicker (108%). Substantial weakening of the polar cell due to increase in sea-level pressure over polar latitudes leads to a negative trend of the winter AO index. The model reproduces large year-to-year variability under both cooling and warming conditions.

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Satellite-observed variability and trend in sea-ice extent, surface temperature, albedo and clouds in the Arctic

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756401781818617 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 457-473 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Josefino C. Comiso

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Warming Trend ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

North American Continent ◽

The North ◽

Ice Surface

AbstractRecent observations of a decreasing ice extent and a possible thinning of the ice cover in the Arctic make it imperative that detailed studies of the current Arctic environment are made, especially since the region is known to be highly sensitive to a potential change in climate. A continuous dataset of microwave, thermal infrared and visible satellite data has been analyzed for the first time to concurrently study in spatial detail the variability of the sea-ice cover, surface temperature, albedo and cloud statistics in the region from 1987 to 1998. Large warming anomalies during the last four years (i.e. 1995−98) are indeed apparent and spatially more extensive than previous years. The largest surface temperature anomaly occurred in 1998, but this was confined mainly to the western Arctic and the North American continent, while cooling occurred in other areas. The albedo anomalies show good coherence with the sea-ice concentration anomalies except in the central region, where periodic changes in albedo are observed, indicative of interannual changes in duration and areal extent of melt ponding and snow-free ice cover. The cloud-cover anomalies are more difficult to interpret, but are shown to be well correlated with the expected warming effects of clouds on the sea-ice surface. The results from trend analyses of the data are consistent with a general warming trend and an ice-cover retreat that appear to be even larger during the last dozen years than those previously reported.

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The Ronne polynya of 1997/98: observations of air-ice-ocean interaction

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756401781818725 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 425-429 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

S. F. Ackley ◽

C. A. Geiger ◽

J. C. King ◽

E. C. Hunke ◽

J. Comiso

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Satellite Imagery ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Open Water ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

Ice Formation ◽

Late Winter ◽

Wind Fields ◽

Ice Shelf

AbstractThe Ronne polynya formed in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, during the period November 1997−February 1998 to an extent not seen previously in the 25 years of all-weather satellite observations. The vessel HMS Endurance traversed the polynya region and took sea-ice, physical oceanographic and meteorological measurements during January and early February 1998. These observations, together with satellite imagery and weather records, were analyzed to determine the causes of the anomalous condition observed and to provide comparisons for numerical modeling experiments. The polynya area, analyzed from satellite imagery, showed a linear, nearly constant, increase with time from mid-November 1997 through February 1998. It had a maximum open-water area of 3 × 105 km2 and extended 500 km north of the Ronne Ice Shelf (at 76° S) to 70° S. The ice and snow structure of floes at the northern edge of the polynya showed the ice there had formed in the previous mid- to late winter (October 1997 or earlier) and had been advected there either from the eastern Weddell Sea or from the front of the Ronne Ice Shelf. Analyses of the wind fields showed anomalous spring-summer wind fields in the polynya year, with a strong southerly to southwesterly component compared to the mean easterly winds typical of summer conditions. These southerly wind conditions, in both magnitude and direction, therefore account for the drift of ice northward. The predominant summer easterly winds usually fill the southern Weddell Sea with ice from the east, and the high-albedo surfaces reflect the solar radiation, preventing warming of the surface ocean waters and consequent sea-ice melt. Instead, high incident solar radiation from November 1997 to February 1998 was absorbed by the open water, rather than being reflected, thereby both melting ice and preventing ice formation, and thereby sustaining the polynya. We conclude that open-water-albedo feedback is necessary to allow the observed polynya formation, since similar drift conditions prevail in winter (arising from southerly winds also) and usually result in extensive new ice formation in front of the Ronne Ice Shelf. The strong southerly winds therefore have quite opposing seasonal effects, leading to high ice production in winter as usually found, and extensive open water if they occur in spring and summer, as seen in this atypical event in 1997/98. In this case, the atypical southerly winds may be associated with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced atmospheric circulation pattern.

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An improved sea ice detection algorithm using MODIS: application as a new European sea ice extent indicator

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-15-2803-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (6) ◽

pp. 2803-2818

Author(s):

Joan Antoni Parera-Portell ◽

Raquel Ubach ◽

Charles Gignac

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Detection Algorithm ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Monitoring Tools ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Ice Detection

Abstract. The continued loss of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere due to global warming poses a threat to biota and human activities, evidencing the necessity of efficient sea ice monitoring tools. Aiming at the creation of an improved sea ice extent indicator covering the European regional seas, the new IceMap500 algorithm has been developed to classify sea ice and water at a resolution of 500 m at nadir. IceMap500 features a classification strategy built upon previous MODIS sea ice extent algorithms and a new method to reclassify areas affected by resolution-breaking features inherited from the MODIS cloud mask. This approach results in an enlargement of mapped area, a reduction of potential error sources and a better delineation of the sea ice edge, while still systematically achieving accuracies above 90 %, as obtained by manual validation. Swath maps have been aggregated at a monthly scale to obtain sea ice extent with a method that is sensitive to spatio-temporal variations in the sea ice cover and that can be used as an additional error filter. The resulting dataset, covering the months of maximum and minimum sea ice extent (i.e. March and September) over 2 decades (from 2000 to 2019), demonstrates the algorithm's applicability as a monitoring tool and as an indicator, illustrating the sea ice decline at a regional scale. The European sea regions located in the Arctic, NE Atlantic and Barents seas display clear negative trends in both March (−27.98 ± 6.01 × 103 km2yr−1) and September (−16.47 ± 5.66 × 103 km2yr−1). Such trends indicate that the sea ice cover is shrinking at a rate of ∼ 9 % and ∼ 13 % per decade, respectively, even though the sea ice extent loss is comparatively ∼ 70 % greater in March.

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