Jet stream meandering in the Northern Hemisphere winter: an advection-diffusion perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Yu Nie ◽  
Yang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Geometric Structure ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Linear Mapping ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Advection Diffusion

Abstract Large meridional excursions of a jet stream are conducive to blocking and related midlatitude weather extremes, yet the physical mechanism of jet meandering is not well understood. This paper examines the mechanisms of jet meandering in boreal winter through the lens of a potential vorticity (PV)-like tracer advected by reanalysis winds in an advection-diffusion model. As the geometric structure of the tracer displays a compact relationship with PV in observations and permits a linear mapping from tracer to PV at each latitude, jet meandering can be understood by the geometric structure of tracer field that is only a function of prescribed advecting velocities. This one-way dependence of tracer field on advecting velocities provides a new modeling framework to quantify the effects of time mean flow versus transient eddies on the spatiotemporal variability of jet meandering. It is shown that the mapped tracer wave activity resembles the observed spatial pattern and magnitude of PV wave activity for the winter climatology, interannual variability, and blocking-like wave events. The anomalous increase in tracer wave activity for the composite over interannual variability or blocking-like wave events is attributed to weakened composite mean winds, indicating that the low-frequency winds are the leading factor for the overall distributions of wave activity. It is also found that the tracer model underestimates extreme wave activity, likely due to the lack of feedback mechanisms. The implications for the mechanisms of jet meandering in a changing climate are also discussed.

scholarly journals Toward the Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6763-6782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Lu ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
Qing Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
A Value ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Finite Amplitude Wave Activity ◽  
Large Peclet Number

Abstract Systematic sensitivity of the jet position and intensity to horizontal model resolution is identified in several aquaplanet AGCMs, with the coarser resolution producing a more equatorward eddy-driven jet and a stronger upper-tropospheric jet intensity. As the resolution of the models increases to 50 km or finer, the jet position and intensity show signs of convergence within each model group. The mechanism for this convergence behavior is investigated using a hybrid Eulerian–Lagrangian finite-amplitude wave activity budget developed for the upper-tropospheric absolute vorticity. The results suggest that the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet with higher resolution can be attributed to the smaller effective diffusivity of the model in the midlatitudes that allows more wave activity to survive the dissipation and to reach the subtropical critical latitude for wave breaking. The enhanced subtropical wave breaking and associated irreversible vorticity mixing act to maintain a more poleward peak of the vorticity gradient, and thus a more poleward jet. Being overdissipative, the coarse-resolution AGCMs misrepresent the nuanced nonlinear aspect of the midlatitude eddy–mean flow interaction, giving rise to the equatorward bias of the eddy-driven jet. In accordance with the asymptotic behavior of effective diffusivity of Batchelor turbulence in the large Peclet number limit, the upper-tropospheric effective diffusivity of the aquaplanet AGCMs displays signs of convergence in the midlatitude toward a value of approximately 107 m2 s−1 for the ∇2 diffusion. This provides a dynamical underpinning for the convergence of the jet stream observed in these AGCMs at high resolution.

scholarly journals Effect of Madden–Julian Oscillation Occurrence Frequency on the Interannual Variability of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Wave Activity in Winter

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (13) ◽  
pp. 5031-5049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feiyang Wang ◽  
Wenshou Tian ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Jiankai Zhang ◽  
Yuanyuan Han
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Occurrence Frequency ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
P Flux

This study uses reanalysis datasets and numerical experiments to investigate the influence of the occurrence frequency of the individual phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the interannual variability of stratospheric wave activity in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter [November–February (NDJF)]. Our analysis reveals that the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 in winter is significantly positively correlated with the interannual variability of the Eliassen–Palm (E–P) flux divergence anomalies in the northern extratropical stratosphere; that is, higher (lower) occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 corresponds to weaker (stronger) upward wave fluxes and increased (decreased) E–P flux divergence anomalies in the middle and upper stratosphere at mid-to-high latitudes, which implies depressed (enhanced) wave activity accompanied by a stronger (weaker) polar vortex in that region. The convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent related to MJO phase 4 excite a Rossby wave train that propagates poleward to middle and high latitudes, and is in antiphase with the climatological stationary waves of wavenumber 1 at middle and high latitudes. As the spatial distribution of the convection anomalies during MJO phase 7 has an almost opposite, but weaker, pattern to that during MJO phase 4, the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 7 has an opposite and weaker effect on the northern extratropical stratosphere to MJO phase 4. However, the other MJO phases (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8) cannot significantly influence the northern extratropical stratosphere because the wave responses in these phases are neither totally in nor out of phase with the background stationary wavenumber 1.

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Model Database

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability of Mesoscale Eddies in the Indonesian Seas

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1017
Author(s):  
Zhanjiu Hao ◽  
Zhenhua Xu ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Qun Li ◽  
Baoshu Yin
Keyword(s):  
World Ocean ◽  
Mesoscale Eddies ◽  
Spatial Inhomogeneity ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Identification Algorithm ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Sulu Sea ◽  
Indonesian Seas ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Eddy Generation

Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous in the world ocean and well researched both globally and regionally, while their properties and distributions across the whole Indonesian Seas are not yet fully understood. This study investigates for the first time the spatiotemporal variations and generation mechanisms of mesoscale eddies across the whole Indonesian Seas. Eddies are detected from altimetry sea level anomalies by an automatic identification algorithm. The Sulu Sea, Sulawesi Sea, Maluku Sea and Banda Sea are the main eddy generation regions. More than 80% of eddies are short-lived with a lifetime below 30 days. The properties of eddies exhibit high spatial inhomogeneity, with the typical amplitudes and radiuses of 2–6 cm and 50–160 km, respectively. The most energetic eddies are observed in the Sulawesi Sea and Seram Sea. Eddies feature different seasonal cycles between anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies in each basin, especially given that the average latitude of the eddy centroid has inverse seasonal variations. About 48% of eddies in the Sulawesi Sea are highly nonlinear, which is the case for less than 30% in the Sulu Sea and Banda Sea. Instability analysis is performed using high-resolution model outputs from Bluelink Reanalysis to assess mechanisms of eddy generation. Barotropic instability of the mean flow dominates eddy generation in the Sulu Sea and Sulawesi Sea, while baroclinic instability is slightly more in the Maluku Sea and Banda Sea.

scholarly journals Relation Between the Interannual Variability in the Stratospheric Rossby Wave Forcing and Zonal Mean Fields Suggesting an Interhemispheric Link in the Stratosphere

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuki Matsushita ◽  
Daiki Kado ◽  
Masashi Kohma ◽  
Kaoru Sato
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Meridional Cross Section ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract. Focusing on the interannual variabilities in the zonal mean fields and Rossby wave forcing in austral winter, an interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is examined using reanalysis data: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). In the present study, the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence averaged over the latitude and height regions of 50°–30° S and 0.3–1 hPa, respectively, are used as a proxy of the Rossby wave forcing, where the absolute value of the EP flux divergence is maximized in the winter in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The interannual variabilities in the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind are significantly correlated with the SH Rossby wave forcing in the stratosphere in both the SH and Northern Hemisphere (NH). The interannual variability in the strength of the poleward residual mean flow in the SH stratosphere is also correlated with the strength of the wave forcing. This correlation is significant even around the equator at an altitude of 40 km and at NH low latitudes of 20–40 km. The temperature anomaly is consistent with this residual mean flow anomaly. The relationship between the cross-equatorial flow and the zonal mean absolute angular momentum gradient (My) is examined in the meridional cross section. The My around the equator at the altitude of 40 km is small when the wave forcing is strong, which provides a pathway for the cross-equatorial residual mean flow. These results indicate that an interhemispheric coupling is present in the stratosphere through the meridional circulation modulated by the Rossby wave forcing.

A Role for Barotropic Eddy–Mean Flow Feedbacks in the Zonal Wind Response to Sea Ice Loss and Arctic Amplification

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (21) ◽  
pp. 7469-7481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryn Ronalds ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Response ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Previous studies have suggested that, in the zonal mean, the climatological Northern Hemisphere wintertime eddy-driven jet streams will weaken and shift equatorward in response to Arctic amplification and sea ice loss. However, multiple studies have also pointed out that this response has strong regional differences across the two ocean basins, with the North Atlantic jet stream generally weakening across models and the North Pacific jet stream showing signs of strengthening. Based on the zonal wind response with a fully coupled model, this work sets up two case studies using a barotropic model to test a dynamical mechanism that can explain the differences in zonal wind response in the North Pacific versus the North Atlantic. Results indicate that the differences between the two basins are due, at least in part, to differences in the proximity of the jet streams to the sea ice loss, and that in both cases the eddies act to increase the jet speed via changes in wave breaking location and frequency. Thus, while baroclinic arguments may account for an initial reduction in the midlatitude winds through thermal wind balance, eddy–mean flow feedbacks are likely instrumental in determining the final total response and actually act to strengthen the eddy-driven jet stream.

scholarly journals Are Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Preceded by Anomalous Tropospheric Wave Activity?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (21) ◽  
pp. 7173-7189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro de la Cámara ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
John R. Albers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Event ◽  
Dynamical Nature ◽  
The Waves ◽  
Robust Evidence

Abstract A combination of 240 years of output from a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model and a twentieth-century reanalysis product is used to investigate to what extent sudden stratospheric warmings are preceded by anomalous tropospheric wave activity. To this end we study the fate of lower tropospheric wave events (LTWEs) and their interaction with the stratospheric mean flow. These LTWEs are contrasted with sudden stratospheric deceleration events (SSDs), which are similar to sudden stratospheric warmings but place more emphasis on the explosive dynamical nature of such events. Reanalysis and model output provide very similar statistics: Around one-third of the identified SSDs are preceded by wave events in the lower troposphere, while two-thirds of the SSDs are not preceded by a tropospheric wave event. In addition, only 20% of all anomalous tropospheric wave events are followed by an SSD in the stratosphere. This constitutes statistically robust evidence that the anomalous amplification of wave activity in the stratosphere that drives SSDs is not necessarily due to an anomalous amplification of the waves in the source region (i.e., the lower troposphere). The results suggest that the dynamics in the lowermost stratosphere and the vortex geometry are essential, and should be carefully analyzed in the search for precursors of SSDs.

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