Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 4316-4340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Brian J. Soden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Abstract This study examines the response of the tropical atmospheric and oceanic circulation to increasing greenhouse gases using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate model experiments performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The strength of the atmospheric overturning circulation decreases as the climate warms in all IPCC AR4 models, in a manner consistent with the thermodynamic scaling arguments of Held and Soden. The weakening occurs preferentially in the zonally asymmetric (i.e., Walker) rather than zonal-mean (i.e., Hadley) component of the tropical circulation and is shown to induce substantial changes to the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical oceans. Evidence suggests that the overall circulation weakens by decreasing the frequency of strong updrafts and increasing the frequency of weak updrafts, although the robustness of this behavior across all models cannot be confirmed because of the lack of data. As the climate warms, changes in both the atmospheric and ocean circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean resemble “El Niño–like” conditions; however, the mechanisms are shown to be distinct from those of El Niño and are reproduced in both mixed layer and full ocean dynamics coupled climate models. The character of the Indian Ocean response to global warming resembles that of Indian Ocean dipole mode events. The consensus of model results presented here is also consistent with recently detected changes in sea level pressure since the mid–nineteenth century.

scholarly journals Wind-Driven Response of the Northern Indian Ocean to Climate Extremes*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2978-2993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommy G. Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Northern Indian Ocean ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Composites of Florida State University winds (1970–99) for four different climate scenarios are used to force an Indian Ocean model. In addition to the mean climatology, the cases include La Niña, El Niño, and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The differences in upper-ocean water mass exchanges between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are investigated and show that, during El Niño and IOD years, the average clockwise Indian Ocean circulation is intensified, while it is weakened during La Niña years. As a consequence, high-salinity water export from the Arabian Sea into the Bay of Bengal is enhanced during El Niño and IOD years, while transport of low-salinity waters from the Bay of Bengal into the Arabian Sea is enhanced during La Niña years. This provides a venue for interannual salinity variations in the northern Indian Ocean.

scholarly journals Role of Air–Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Niño–Induced North Indian Ocean Warming*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2023-2038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Du ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Second Peak

Abstract El Niño induces a basin-wide increase in tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) with a lag of one season. The north IO (NIO), in particular, displays a peculiar double-peak warming with the second peak larger in magnitude and persisting well through the summer. Motivated by recent studies suggesting the importance of the TIO warming for the Northwest Pacific and East Asian summer monsoons, the present study investigates the mechanisms for the second peak of the NIO warming using observations and general circulation models. This analysis reveals that internal air–sea interaction within the TIO is key to sustaining the TIO warming through summer. During El Niño, anticyclonic wind curl anomalies force a downwelling Rossby wave in the south TIO through Walker circulation adjustments, causing a sustained SST warming in the tropical southwest IO (SWIO) where the mean thermocline is shallow. During the spring and early summer following El Niño, this SWIO warming sustains an antisymmetric pattern of atmospheric anomalies with northeasterly (northwesterly) wind anomalies north (south) of the equator. Over the NIO as the mean winds turn into southwesterly in May, the northeasterly anomalies force the second SST peak that persists through summer by reducing the wind speed and surface evaporation. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments show that the antisymmetric atmospheric pattern is a response to the TIO warming, suggestive of their mutual interaction. Thus, ocean dynamics and Rossby waves in particular are important for the warming not only locally in SWIO but also on the basin-scale north of the equator, a result with important implications for climate predictability and prediction.

The Extreme El Niño Events Suppressing the Intraseasonal Variability in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 2359-2372
Author(s):  
Gengxin Chen ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractIn the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, intraseasonal variability (ISV) affects the regional oceanography and marine ecosystems. Mooring and satellite observations documented two periods of unusually weak ISV during the past two decades, associated with suppressed baroclinic instability of the South Equatorial Current. Regression analysis and model simulations suggest that the exceptionally weak ISVs were caused primarily by the extreme El Niño events and modulated to a lesser extent by the Indian Ocean dipole. Additional observations confirm that the circulation balance in the Indo-Pacific Ocean was disrupted during the extreme El Niño events, impacting the Indonesian Throughflow Indian Ocean dynamics. This research provides substantial evidence for large-scale modes modulating ISV and the abnormal Indo-Pacific dynamical connection during extreme climate modes.

scholarly journals A Simple Analytical Model for Understanding the Formation of Sea Surface Temperature Patterns under Global Warming*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8413-8421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract How sea surface temperature (SST) changes under global warming is critical for future climate projection because SST change affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Robust features derived from 17 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) include a much greater warming in high latitudes than in the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, and a dipole pattern in the Indian Ocean. However, the physical mechanism responsible for formation of such warming patterns remains open. A simple theoretical model is constructed to reveal the cause of the future warming patterns. The result shows that a much greater polar, rather than tropical, warming depends primarily on present-day mean SST and surface latent heat flux fields, and atmospheric longwave radiation feedback associated with cloud change further enhances this warming contrast. In the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the Pacific and Atlantic arises from a similar process, while cloud feedback resulting from different cloud regimes between east and west ocean basins also plays a role. A dipole warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean is a response to weakened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF DIPOLE MODE AND EL-NINO EVENTS ON CATCHES OF YELLOWFIN TUNA (Thunnus albacares) IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN OFF WEST JAVA

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairul Amri ◽  
Ali Suman ◽  
Hari Eko Irianto ◽  
Wudianto Wudianto
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Yellowfin Tuna ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Thunnus Albacares ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

The effects of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of YellowfinTuna (<em>Thunnus albacares</em>) in the Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea surface temperature/SST and chlorophyll-a concentration/SSC) and Yellowfin Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 2003–2012, which included the strong positive dipole mode event in association with weak El-Nino 2006.Yellowfin Tuna catch data were taken from Palabuhanratu landing place and remotely sensed environmental data were taken from MODIS-Aqua sensor.The result showed that regional climate anomaly Indian Ocean Dipole Mode influenced Yellowfin Tuna catch and its composition. The catches per unit effort (CPUE) of Thunnus alabacares in the strong positive dipole mode event in 2006 and weak El-Nino events in 2011 and 2012 was higher. The increase patern of CPUE followed the upwelling process, started from May-June achieved the peak between September-October.Very high increase in CPUE when strong positive dipole mode event (2006) and a weak El-Nino events (2011 and 2012) had a relation with the increase in the distribution of chlorophyll-a indicating an increase in the abundance of phytoplankton (primary productivity) due to upwelling. In contrast, yellowfin tuna CPUE is very low at the La-Nina event (2005), though as the dominant catch when compared to others.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Dipolelike Variability in the CSIRO Mark 3 Coupled Climate Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1449-1468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Gary Meyers
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface

Abstract Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean is explored with a multicentury integration of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 3 climate model, which runs without flux adjustment. Despite the presence of some common deficiencies in this type of coupled model, zonal dipolelike variability is produced. During July through November, the dominant mode of variability of sea surface temperature resembles the observed zonal dipole and has out-of-phase rainfall variations across the Indian Ocean basin, which are as large as those associated with the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the positive dipole phase, cold SST anomaly and suppressed rainfall south of the equator on the Sumatra–Java coast drives an anticyclonic circulation anomaly that is consistent with the steady response (Gill model) to a heat sink displaced south of the equator. The northwest–southeast tilting Sumatra–Java coast results in cold sea surface temperature (SST) centered south of the equator, which forces anticylonic winds that are southeasterly along the coast, which thus produces local upwelling, cool SSTs, and promotes more anticylonic winds; on the equator, the easterlies raise the thermocline to the east via upwelling Kelvin waves and deepen the off-equatorial thermocline to the west via off-equatorial downwelling Rossby waves. The model dipole mode exhibits little contemporaneous relationship with the model ENSO; however, this does not imply that it is independent of ENSO. The model dipole often (but not always) develops in the year following El Niño. It is triggered by an unrealistic transmission of the model’s ENSO discharge phase through the Indonesian passages. In the model, the ENSO discharge Rossby waves arrive at the Sumatra–Java coast some 6 to 9 months after an El Niño peaks, causing the majority of model dipole events to peak in the year after an ENSO warm event. In the observed ENSO discharge, Rossby waves arrive at the Australian northwest coast. Thus the model Indian Ocean dipolelike variability is triggered by an unrealistic mechanism. The result highlights the importance of properly representing the transmission of Pacific Rossby waves and Indonesian throughflow in the complex topography of the Indonesian region in coupled climate models.

scholarly journals The Hiatus in Global Warming and Interactions between the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Comparing Observations and Modeling Results

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Knut Seip ◽  
Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Common Cycles ◽  
Hadley Centre

Ocean oscillations interact across large regions and these interactions may explain cycles in global temperature anomaly, including hiatus periods. Here, we examine ocean interaction measures and compare results from model simulations to observations for El Niño and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We use the global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre. A relatively novel method for identifying running leading-agging LL-relations show that the observed El Niño generally leads the observed PDO and this pattern is strengthened in the simulations. However, LL-pattern in both observations and models shows that there are three periods, around 1910–1920, around 1960 and around 2000 where El Niño lags PDO, or the leading signature is weak. These periods correspond to hiatus periods in global warming. The power spectral density analysis, (PSD), identifies various ocean cycle lengths in El Niño and PDO, but the LL-algorithm picks out common cycles of 7–8 and 24 years that shows leading-lagging relations between them.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

Response of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and Its Capacitor Effect to Global Warming*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (23) ◽  
pp. 6146-6164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Tong Zheng ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Qinyu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The development of the Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and its change under global warming are investigated using a pair of integrations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1). In the simulation under constant climate forcing, the El Niño–induced warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and its capacitor effect on summer northwest Pacific climate are reproduced realistically. In the simulation forced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, the IOB mode and its summer capacitor effect are enhanced in persistence following El Niño, even though the ENSO itself weakens in response to global warming. In the prior spring, an antisymmetric pattern of rainfall–wind anomalies and the meridional SST gradient across the equator strengthen via increased wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback. ENSO decays slightly faster in global warming. During the summer following El Niño decay, the resultant decrease in equatorial Pacific SST strengthens the SST contrast with the enhanced TIO warming, increasing the sea level pressure gradient and intensifying the anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific. The easterly wind anomalies associated with the northwest Pacific anticyclone in turn sustain the SST warming over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Thus, the increased TIO capacitor effect is due to enhanced air–sea interaction over the TIO and with the western Pacific. The implications for the observed intensification of the IOB mode and its capacitor effect after the 1970s are discussed.

scholarly journals Weakening of Northwest Pacific Anticyclone Anomalies during Post–El Niño Summers under Global Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3539-3555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenping Jiang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Ping Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Northwest Pacific Anticyclone ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC) anomalies during post–El Niño summers are a key predictor of the summer climate in East Asia and the northwestern Pacific (NWP). Understanding how this will change under global warming is crucial to project the changes in the variability of the northwest Pacific summer monsoon. Outputs from 18 selected coupled models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show that the anomalous NWPAC response to El Niño will likely be weakened under global warming, which is attributed to the decreased zonal contrast between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and the NWP cooling during post–El Niño summers. Under global warming, the NWPAC anomalies during the El Niño mature winter are weakened because of decreased atmospheric circulation in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which leads to the weakening of local air–sea interaction and then decreases the cold NWP SST anomalies. Furthermore, the decreased surface heat flux anomalies, the weakened anticyclone anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, and the slackened anomalous easterlies over the north Indian Ocean weaken the warm TIO SST anomalies. However, the strengthened tropospheric temperature anomalies could enhance the anomalous TIO warming. Although the changes in TIO SST anomalies are indistinctive, the weakening of the SST anomaly gradient between the TIO and the NWP is robust to weaken the NWPAC anomalies during post–El Niño summers. Moreover, the positive feedback between the TIO–NWP SST anomalies and the NWPAC anomalies will enhance the weakening of NWPAC under global warming.

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