scholarly journals Improved Liquid Water Equivalent Nowcasting Using the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making System

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Ruzanski ◽  
V. Chandrasekar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Radar Tracking ◽  
Adaptive Radar ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Average Improvement ◽  
Decision Making System ◽  
Surface Observations

Abstract Short-term automated forecasts (nowcasts) of liquid water equivalent (LWE) values can be used to assist aviation deicing decision-making activities. Such decisions can mitigate hazards that cause losses of life and property and increase costs because of travel delays. The Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making (WSDDM) system provides LWE nowcasts and is currently deployed at several major airports in the United States. WSDDM produces these nowcasts in two steps. First, an equation relating radar reflectivity to LWE rate is calibrated by correlating radar and surface observations. Then, nowcasts of reflectivity are converted to nowcasts of LWE using this calibrated equation. This paper shows that the incorporation of the Dynamic and Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) radar–based nowcasting method into WSDDM can provide more accurate and efficient nowcasts of LWE relative to the correlation-based nowcasting method currently used. Results of an evaluation considering approximately 92 h of data collected during four winter weather events show the incorporation of DARTS into WSDDM provides an approximate 14% average improvement in the accuracy of 60-min LWE nowcasts and reduces runtime by two orders of magnitude.

scholarly journals Research on Long Short-Term Decision-Making System for Excavator Market Demand Forecasting Based on Improved Support Vector Machine

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6367
Author(s):  
Bin Zhang ◽  
Teng Yang ◽  
Haocen Hong ◽  
Guozan Cheng ◽  
Huayong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Classification Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Decision Making System ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Future demand forecasting of the excavators is of great significance to guide the supply and marketing plan. For a long time, market forecasting of the construction machinery is regarded as short-term forecasting, which lacks the analysis of macro-marketing law and cannot reflect the true law of market development. In this paper, a decision-making system based on both long-term and short-term features was proposed. The interval classification and recursive feature elimination were used to select the main factors that affect the demand of excavators. Then a support vector regression model based on decomposition synthesis (DS-SVR) was developed to forecast the long-term features, and a model combined with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was developed to forecast the short-term features. Finally, the differential evolution algorithm (DE) was applied to optimize model parameters. The performance of the forecasting model was tested using the marketing data of a typical enterprise. The results showed that the total error rate of the forecasting model for the one-year long-term forecasting is 26.61%, and the classification error of forecasting of the three-month short-term forecasting are 13.65%, 18.83%, and 19.62%, respectively, which are superior to the SVR forecasting model and the SARIMA forecasting model.

scholarly journals Assessing the Short-Term Forecast Capability of Nonstandardized Surface Observations Using the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (7) ◽  
pp. 1397-1411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joby L. Hilliker ◽  
Girish Akasapu ◽  
George S. Young
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Generalized Additive Modeling ◽  
Percent Improvement ◽  
Additive Modeling ◽  
Surface Observations

Abstract The number of surface observations from nonstandardized networks across the United States has appreciably increased the last several years. Automated Weather Services, Inc. (AWS), maintains one example of this type of network offering nonstandardized observations for ∼8000 sites. The present study assesses the utility of such a network to improve short-term (i.e., lead times <12 h) National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts for three parameters most relevant to the energy industry—temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed. A 1-yr sample of 13 AWS sites is chosen to evaluate the magnitude of forecast improvement (skill) and influence of physical location (siting) on such improvements. Hourly predictions are generated using generalized additive modeling (GAM)—a nonlinear statistical equation incorporating a predetermined set of the most significant AWS and NDFD predictors. Two references are used for comparison: (i) persistence climatology (PC) forecasts and (ii) NDFD forecasts calibrated to the AWS sites (CNDFD). The skill, measured via the percent improvement (reduction) in the mean absolute error (MAE), of forecasts generated by the study’s technique (CNDFD+) is comparable (<5%) to PC for lead times of 1–3 h for dewpoint and wind speed. Skill relative to PC slowly increases with lead time, with temperature exhibiting the greatest relative-to-PC skill (∼30% at 12 h). When compared to baseline CNDFD forecasts, the MAE of the generated CNDFD+ forecasts is reduced 65% for temperature and dewpoint at the 1-h lead time. An exponential drop in improvement occurs for longer lead times. Wind speed improvements are notably less, with little skill (<5%) demonstrated for forecasts beyond 4 h. Overall, CNDFD+ forecasts have the greatest accuracy relative to CNDFD and PC for the middle (3–7 h) lead times tested in the study. Variations in CNDFD+ skill exist with respect to AWS location. Tested stations located in complex terrain generally exhibit greater skill relative to CNDFD than the 13-station average for temperature (and, to a lesser degree, dewpoint). Relative to PC, however, the same subset of stations exhibits skill below the 13-station average. No conclusive relationship can be made between CNDFD+ skill and the sample stations located near water.

Cultural Awareness of Students in Communication Sciences and Disorders: A Mixed-Methods Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1231-1242
Author(s):  
Celeste Domsch ◽  
Lori Stiritz ◽  
Jay Huff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Study Abroad ◽  
Cultural Awareness ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Global Awareness ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Study ◽  
Short Term Study

Purpose This study used a mixed-methods design to assess changes in students' cultural awareness during and following a short-term study abroad. Method Thirty-six undergraduate and graduate students participated in a 2-week study abroad to England during the summers of 2016 and 2017. Quantitative data were collected using standardized self-report measures administered prior to departure and after returning to the United States and were analyzed using paired-samples t tests. Qualitative data were collected in the form of daily journal reflections during the trip and interviews after returning to the United States and analyzed using phenomenological methods. Results No statistically significant changes were evident on any standardized self-report measures once corrections for multiple t tests were applied. In addition, a ceiling effect was found on one measure. On the qualitative measures, themes from student transcripts included increased global awareness and a sense of personal growth. Conclusions Measuring cultural awareness poses many challenges. One is that social desirability bias may influence responses. A second is that current measures of cultural competence may exhibit ceiling or floor effects. Analysis of qualitative data may be more useful in examining effects of participation in a short-term study abroad, which appears to result in decreased ethnocentrism and increased global awareness in communication sciences and disorders students. Future work may wish to consider the long-term effects of participation in a study abroad for emerging professionals in the field.

A Bird in the Hand Isn’t Good for Long

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Scherbaum ◽  
Simon Frisch ◽  
Maja Dshemuchadse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Control ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Control Processes ◽  
Folk Wisdom ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. Folk wisdom tells us that additional time to make a decision helps us to refrain from the first impulse to take the bird in the hand. However, the question why the time to decide plays an important role is still unanswered. Here we distinguish two explanations, one based on a bias in value accumulation that has to be overcome with time, the other based on cognitive control processes that need time to set in. In an intertemporal decision task, we use mouse tracking to study participants’ responses to options’ values and delays which were presented sequentially. We find that the information about options’ delays does indeed lead to an immediate bias that is controlled afterwards, matching the prediction of control processes needed to counter initial impulses. Hence, by using a dynamic measure, we provide insight into the processes underlying short-term oriented choices in intertemporal decision making.

The United States and the Iranian Nuclear Programme

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Hurst
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nixon Administration ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Issue ◽  
The Relationship

The United States, Iran and the Bomb provides the first comprehensive analysis of the US-Iranian nuclear relationship from its origins through to the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. Starting with the Nixon administration in the 1970s, it analyses the policies of successive US administrations toward the Iranian nuclear programme. Emphasizing the centrality of domestic politics to decision-making on both sides, it offers both an explanation of the evolution of the relationship and a critique of successive US administrations' efforts to halt the Iranian nuclear programme, with neither coercive measures nor inducements effectively applied. The book further argues that factional politics inside Iran played a crucial role in Iranian nuclear decision-making and that American policy tended to reinforce the position of Iranian hardliners and undermine that of those who were prepared to compromise on the nuclear issue. In the final chapter it demonstrates how President Obama's alterations to American strategy, accompanied by shifts in Iranian domestic politics, finally brought about the signing of the JCPOA in 2015.

Methodical Framework of the Support and Decision-making System for the Collection and Disposal of Organic Raw Materials

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Sergei Shvorov ◽  
◽  
Dmitry Komarchuk ◽  
Peter Ohrimenko ◽  
Dmitry Chyrchenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Decision Making System

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

Development of Radar Tracking Technique for the Short -Term Rainfall Field Forecasting-

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (12) ◽  
pp. 995-1009
Author(s):  
Tae-Jeong Kim ◽  
◽  
Dong-Ryul Lee ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Radar Tracking ◽  
Tracking Technique
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