scholarly journals On Producing Reliable and Affordable Numerical Weather Forecasts on Public Cloud-Computing Infrastructure

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy C. Y. Chui ◽  
David Siuta ◽  
Gregory West ◽  
Henryk Modzelewski ◽  
Roland Schigas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Virtual Machines ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Computer Hardware ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Numerical Weather

AbstractCloud-computing resources are increasingly used in atmospheric research and real-time weather forecasting. The aim of this study is to explore new ways to reduce cloud-computing costs for real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP). One way is to compress output files to reduce data egress costs. File compression techniques can reduce data egress costs by over 50%. Data egress costs can be further minimized by postprocessing in the cloud and then exporting the smaller resulting files while discarding the bulk of the raw NWP output. Another way to reduce costs is to use preemptible resources, which are virtual machines (VMs) on the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) that clients can use at an 80% discount (compared to nonpreemptible VMs), but which can be turned off by the GCP without warning. By leveraging the restart functionality in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, preemptible resources can be used to save 60%–70% in weather simulation costs without compromising output reliability. The potential cost savings are demonstrated in forecasts over the Canadian Arctic and in a case study of NWP runs for the West African monsoon (WAM) of 2017. The choice in model physics, VM specification, and use of the aforementioned cost-saving measures enable simulation costs to be low enough such that the cloud can be a viable platform for running short-range ensemble forecasts when compared to the cost of purchasing new computer hardware.

scholarly journals Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1985-1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Siuta ◽  
Gregory West ◽  
Henryk Modzelewski ◽  
Roland Schigas ◽  
Roland Stull
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
High Performance Computing ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Virtual Machines ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Platform ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Performance Computing

Abstract As cloud-service providers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft decrease costs and increase performance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the cloud will become a reality not only for research use but for real-time use as well. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on the Google Cloud Platform is tested and configurations and optimizations of virtual machines that meet two main requirements of real-time NWP are found: 1) fast forecast completion (timeliness) and 2) economic cost effectiveness when compared with traditional on-premise high-performance computing hardware. Optimum performance was found by using the Intel compiler collection with no more than eight virtual CPUs per virtual machine. Using these configurations, real-time NWP on the Google Cloud Platform is found to be economically competitive when compared with the purchase of local high-performance computing hardware for NWP needs. Cloud-computing services are becoming viable alternatives to on-premise compute clusters for some applications.

scholarly journals Evaluation of IWV from the numerical weather prediction WRF model with PPP GNSS processing for Bulgaria

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzvetan Simeonov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorov ◽  
Felix Norman Teferle ◽  
Georgi Milev ◽  
Guergana Guerova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Precipitation Efficiency ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) meteorology is an established operational service providing hourly updated GNSS tropospheric products to the National Meteorologic Services (NMS) in Europe. In the last decade through the ground-based GNSS network densification and new processing strategies like Precise Point Positioning (PPP) it has become possible to obtain sub-hourly tropospheric products for monitoring severe weather events. In this work one year (January–December 2013) of sub-hourly GNSS tropospheric products (Zenith Total Delay) are computed using the PPP strategy for seven stations in Bulgaria. In order to take advantage of the sub-hourly GNSS data to derive Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) surface pressure and temperature with similar temporal resolution is required. As the surface observations are on 3 hourly basis the first step is to compare the surface pressure and temperature from numerical weather prediction model Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) with observations at three synoptic stations in Bulgaria. The mean difference between the two data-sets for 1) surface pressure is less than 0.5 hPa and the correlation is over 0.989, 2) temperature the largest mean difference is 1.1 °C and the correlation coefficient is over 0.957 and 3) IWV mean difference is in range 0.1–1.1 mm. The evaluation of WRF on annual bases shows IWV underestimation between 0.5 and 1.5 mm at five stations and overestimation at Varna and Rozhen. Varna and Rozhen have also much smaller correlation 0.9 and 0.76. The study of the monthly IWV variation shows that at those locations the GNSS IWV has unexpected drop in April and March respectively. The reason for this drop is likely problems with station raw data. At the remaining 5 stations a very good agreement between GNSS and WRF is observed with high correlation during the cold part of 2013 i.e. March, October and December (0.95) and low correlation during the warm part of 2013 i.e. April to August (below 0.9). The diurnal cycle of the WRF model shows a dry bias in the range of 0.5-1.5 mm. Between 00 and 01 UTC the GNSS IWV tends to be underestimate IWV which is likely due to the processing window used. The precipitation efficiency from GNSS and WRF show very good agreement on monthly bases with a maximum in May-June and minimum in August–September. The annual precipitation efficiency in 2013 at Lovech and Burgas is about 6 %.

scholarly journals Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brožková ◽  
M. Derková ◽  
M. Belluš ◽  
F. Farda
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Real Time Mode ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

scholarly journals Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings

Ocean Science ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brožková ◽  
M. Derková ◽  
M. Belluš ◽  
A. Farda
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Real Time Mode ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

scholarly journals The Role of Physical Parameterizations on the Numerical Weather Prediction: Impact of Different Cumulus Schemes on Weather Forecasting on Complex Orographic Areas

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 616
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Castorina ◽  
Maria Teresa Caccamo ◽  
Franco Colombo ◽  
Salvatore Magazù
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Cumulus Schemes

Numerical weather predictions (NWP) play a fundamental role in air quality management. The transport and deposition of all the pollutants (natural and/or anthropogenic) present in the atmosphere are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions such as, for example, precipitation and winds. Furthermore, the presence of particulate matter in the atmosphere favors the physical processes of nucleation of the hydrometeors, thus increasing the risk of even extreme weather events. In this framework of reference, the present work aimed to improve the quality of weather forecasts related to extreme events through the optimization of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. For this purpose, the simulation results obtained using the WRF model, where physical parametrizations of the cumulus scheme can be optimized, are reported. As a case study, we considered the extreme meteorological event recorded on 25 November 2016, which affected the whole territory of Sicily and, in particular, the area of Sciacca (Agrigento). In order, to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, we compared the WRF model outputs with data obtained by a network of radar and weather stations. The comparison was performed through statistical methods on the basis of a “contingency table”, which allowed for ascertaining the best suited physical parametrizations able to reproduce this event.

scholarly journals Verification of Forecast Weather Surface Variables over Vietnam Using the National Numerical Weather Prediction System

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tien Du Duc ◽  
Lars Robert Hole ◽  
Duc Tran Anh ◽  
Cuong Hoang Duc ◽  
Thuy Nguyen Ba
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Global Spectral Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The Us

The national numerical weather prediction system of Vietnam is presented and evaluated. The system is based on three main models, namely, the Japanese Global Spectral Model, the US Global Forecast System, and the US Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The global forecast products have been received at 0.25- and 0.5-degree horizontal resolution, respectively, and the WRF model has been run locally with 16 km horizontal resolution at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting using lateral conditions from GSM and GFS. The model performance is evaluated by comparing model output against observations of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature at 168 weather stations, with daily data from 2010 to 2014. In general, the global models provide more accurate forecasts than the regional models, probably due to the low horizontal resolution in the regional model. Also, the model performance is poorer for stations with altitudes greater than 500 meters above sea level (masl). For tropical cyclone performance validations, the maximum wind surface forecast from global and regional models is also verified against the best track of Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, the model forecast skill during a recent extreme rain event in northeast Vietnam is evaluated.

scholarly journals Background Error in WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
First Time

WRF model have been tuned and tested over Georgia’s territory for years. First time in Georgia theprocess of data assimilation in Numerical weather prediction is developing. This work presents how forecasterror statistics appear in the data assimilation problem through the background error covariance matrix – B, wherethe variances and correlations associated with model forecasts are estimated. Results of modeling of backgrounderror covariance matrix for control variables using WRF model over Georgia with desired domain configurationare discussed and presented. The modeling was implemented in two different 3DVAR systems (WRFDA andGSI) and results were checked by pseudo observation benchmark cases using also default global and regional BEmatrixes. The mathematical and physical properties of the covariances are also reviewed.

AIRS near-real-time products and algorithms in support of operational numerical weather prediction

2003 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.D. Goldberg ◽  
Yanni Qu ◽  
L.M. McMillin ◽  
W. Wolf ◽  
Lihang Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather

Estimates of the Earth surface influence on the accuracy of numerical prediction of air temperature in Belarus using the WRF model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 50-68
Author(s):  
S.А. Lysenko ◽  
◽  
P.О. Zaiko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Global Land

The spatial structure of land use and biophysical characteristics of land surface (albedo, leaf index, and vegetation cover) are updated using the GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite) and GLC2019 (Global Land Cover, 2019) modern satellite databases for mesoscale numerical weather prediction with the WRF model for the territory of Belarus. The series of WRF-based numerical experiments was performed to verify the influence of the updated characteristics on the forecast quality for some difficult to predict winter cases. The model was initialized by the GFS (Global Forecast System, NCEP) global numerical weather prediction model. It is shown that the use of high-resolution land use data in the WRF and the consideration of the new albedo and leaf index distribution over the territory of Belarus can reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of short-range (to 48 hours) forecasts of surface air temperature by 16–33% as compared to the GFS. The RMSE of the temperature forecast for the weather stations in Belarus for a forecast lead time of 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours decreased on average by 0.40°С (19%), 0.35°С (10%), 0.68°С (23%), and 0.56°С (15%), respectively. The most significant decrease in RMSE of the numerical forecast of temperature (up to 2.1 °С) was obtained for the daytime (for a lead time of 12 and 36 hours), when positive feedbacks between albedo and temperature of the land surface are manifested most. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, WRF, digital land surface model, albedo, leaf area index, forecast model validation

scholarly journals The Use of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Simulate Near-Field Volcanic Plumes

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 594
Author(s):  
Ralph R. Burton ◽  
Mark J. Woodhouse ◽  
Alan M. Gadian ◽  
Stephen D. Mobbs
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Integral Model ◽  
Eruption Column ◽  
Volcanic Plumes ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
Nwp Model

In this paper, a state-of the art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is used to simulate the near-field plume of a Plinian-type volcanic eruption. The NWP model is run at very high resolution (of the order of 100 m) and includes a representation of physical processes, including turbulence and buoyancy, that are essential components of eruption column dynamics. Results are shown that illustrate buoyant gas plume dynamics in an atmosphere at rest and in an atmosphere with background wind, and we show that these results agree well with those from theoretical models in the quiescent atmosphere. For wind-blown plumes, we show that features observed in experimental and natural settings are reproduced in our model. However, when comparing with predictions from an integral model using existing entrainment closures there are marked differences. We speculate that these are signatures of a difference in turbulent mixing for uniform and shear flow profiles in a stratified atmosphere. A more complex implementation is given to show that the model may also be used to examine the dispersion of heavy volcanic gases such as sulphur dioxide. Starting from the standard version of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, we show that minimal modifications are needed in order to model volcanic plumes. This suggests that the modified NWP model can be used in the forecasting of plume evolution during future volcanic events, in addition to providing a virtual laboratory for the testing of hypotheses regarding plume behaviour.

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