scholarly journals The Great Plains Low-Level Jet during PECAN: Observed and Simulated Characteristics

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 1845-1869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth N. Smith ◽  
Joshua G. Gebauer ◽  
Petra M. Klein ◽  
Evgeni Fedorovich ◽  
Jeremy A. Gibbs
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Heterogeneity ◽  
Convection Initiation

AbstractDuring the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign, several nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) were observed with integrated boundary layer profiling systems at multiple sites. This paper gives an overview of selected PECAN NLLJ cases and presents a comparison of high-resolution observations with numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Analyses suggest that simulated NLLJs typically form earlier than the observed NLLJs. They are stronger than the observed counterparts early in the event, but weaker than the observed NLLJs later in the night. However, sudden variations in the boundary layer winds, height of the NLLJ maximum and core region, and potential temperature fields are well captured by the WRF Model. Simulated three-dimensional fields are used for a more focused analysis of PECAN NLLJ cases. While previous studies often related changes in the thermal structure of the nocturnal boundary layer and sudden mixing events to local features, we hypothesize that NLLJ spatial evolution plays an important role in such events. The NLLJ is shown to have heterogeneous depth, wind speed, and wind direction. This study offers detailed documentation of the heterogeneous NLLJ moving down the slope of the Great Plains overnight. As the NLLJ evolves, westerly advection becomes significant. Buoyancy-related mechanisms are proposed to explain NLLJ heterogeneity and down-slope motion. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the NLLJ is suggested as a source of the often observed and simulated updrafts during PECAN cases and as a possible mechanism for nocturnal convection initiation. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the NLLJ are interconnected and should not be treated independently.

scholarly journals Impacts of Modifications to a Local Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme on Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1109-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Jahn ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Low Level Jet

Abstract The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is influential in the initiation and evolution of nocturnal convection through the northward advection of heat and moisture, as well as convergence in the region of the LLJ nose. However, accurate numerical model forecasts of LLJs remain a challenge, related to the performance of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in the stable boundary layer. Evaluated here using a series of LLJ cases from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) program are modifications to a commonly used local PBL scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN), available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. WRF forecast mean absolute error (MAE) and bias are calculated relative to PECAN rawinsonde observations. The first MYNN modification invokes a new set of constants for the scheme closure equations that, in the vicinity of the LLJ, decreases forecast MAEs of wind speed, potential temperature, and specific humidity more than 19%. For comparison, the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme results in wind speed MAEs 22% lower but specific humidity MAEs 17% greater than in the original MYNN scheme. The second MYNN modification, which incorporates the effects of potential kinetic energy and uses a nonzero mixing length in stable conditions as dependent on bulk shear, reduces wind speed MAEs 66% for levels below the LLJ, but increases MAEs at higher levels. Finally, Rapid Refresh analyses, which are often used for forecast verification, are evaluated here and found to exhibit a relatively large average wind speed bias of 3 m s−1 in the region below the LLJ, but with relatively small potential temperature and specific humidity biases.

scholarly journals Convection Initiation Caused by Heterogeneous Low-Level Jets over the Great Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (8) ◽  
pp. 2615-2637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua G. Gebauer ◽  
Alan Shapiro ◽  
Evgeni Fedorovich ◽  
Petra Klein
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Nonuniform Heating ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jets ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Capping Inversion

AbstractObservations from three nights of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign were used in conjunction with Rapid Refresh model forecasts to find the cause of north–south lines of convection, which initiated away from obvious surface boundaries. Such pristine convection initiation (CI) is relatively common during the warm season over the Great Plains of the United States. The observations and model forecasts revealed that all three nights had horizontally heterogeneous and veering-with-height low-level jets (LLJs) of nonuniform depth. The veering and heterogeneity were associated with convergence at the top-eastern edge of the LLJ, where moisture advection was also occurring. As time progressed, this upper region became saturated and, due to its placement above the capping inversion, formed moist absolutely unstable layers, from which the convergence helped initiate elevated convection. The structure of the LLJs on the CI nights was likely influenced by nonuniform heating across the sloped terrain, which led to the uneven LLJ depth and contributed toward the wind veering with height through the creation of horizontal buoyancy gradients. These three CI events highlight the importance of assessing the full three-dimensional structure of the LLJ when forecasting nocturnal convection over the Great Plains.

scholarly journals WRF Model Study of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet: Effects of Grid Spacing and Boundary Layer Parameterization

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 2375-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth N. Smith ◽  
Jeremy A. Gibbs ◽  
Evgeni Fedorovich ◽  
Petra M. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Vertical Grid ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Normal Scale

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model often underpredicts the strength of the Great Plains nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ), which has implications for weather, climate, aviation, air quality, and wind energy in the region. During the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (LABLE) conducted in 2012, NLLJs were frequently observed at high temporal resolution, allowing for detailed documentation of their development and evolution throughout the night. Ten LABLE cases with observed NLLJs were chosen to systematically evaluate the WRF Model’s ability to reproduce the observed NLLJs. Model runs were performed with 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal spacing and with the default stretched vertical grid and a nonstretched 40-m vertically spaced grid to investigate which grid configurations are optimal for NLLJ modeling. These tests were conducted using three common boundary layer parameterization schemes: Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino, Yonsei University, and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination. It was found that refining horizontal spacing does not necessarily improve the modeled NLLJ wind. Increasing the number of vertical levels on a non-stretched grid provides more information about the structure of the NLLJ with some schemes, but the benefit is limited by computational expense and model stability. Simulations of the NLLJ were found to be less sensitive to boundary layer parameterization than to grid configuration. The Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination scheme was chosen for future NLLJ simulation studies.

The Use of High-Resolution Sounding Data to Evaluate and Optimize Nonlocal PBL Schemes for Simulating the Slightly Stable Upper Convective Boundary Layer

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (10) ◽  
pp. 3825-3841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Ming Hu ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Xiaolan Li
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Convective Boundary Layer ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Neutral Stability ◽  
Convective Boundary ◽  
Early Afternoon ◽  
Peak Value

Abstract Since the 1950s, a countergradient flux term has been added to some K-profile-based first-order PBL schemes, allowing them to simulate the slightly statically stable upper part of the convective boundary layer (CBL) observed in a limited number of aircraft soundings. There is, however, substantial uncertainty in inferring detailed CBL structure, particularly the level of neutral stability (zn), from such a limited number of soundings. In this study, composite profiles of potential temperature are derived from multiyear early afternoon radiosonde data over Beijing, China. The CBLs become slightly stable above zn ~ 0.31–0.33zi, where zi is the CBL depth. These composite profiles are used to evaluate two K-profile PBL schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) and Shin–Hong (SH) schemes, and to optimize the latter through parameter calibration. In one-dimensional simulations using the WRF Model, YSU simulates a stable CBL above zn ~ 0.24zi, while default SH simulates a thick superadiabatic lower CBL with zn ~ 0.45zi. Experiments with the analytic solution of a K-profile PBL model show that adjusting the countergradient flux profile leads to significant changes in the thermal structure of CBL, informing the calibration of SH. The SH scheme replaces the countergradient heat flux term in its predecessor YSU scheme with a three-layer nonlocal heating profile, with fnl specifying the peak value and z*SL specifying the height of this peak value. Increasing fnl to 1.1 lowers zn, but to too low a value, while simultaneously increasing z*SL to 0.4 leads to a more appropriate zn ~ 0.36zi. The calibrated SH scheme performs better than YSU and default SH for real CBLs.

scholarly journals A Review of Convection Initiation and Motivation for IHOP_2002

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
David B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Precipitation Forecasting ◽  
Moisture Field ◽  
Boundary Layer Processes ◽  
Frontal Zones ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) included four complementary research components: quantitative precipitation forecasting, convection initiation, atmospheric boundary layer processes, and instrumentation. This special issue introductory paper will review the current state of knowledge on surface-forced convection initiation and then describe some of the outstanding issues in convection initiation that partially motivated IHOP_2002. Subsequent papers in this special issue will illustrate the value of combining varied and complementary datasets to study convection initiation in order to address the outstanding issues discussed in this paper and new questions that arose from IHOP_2002 observations. The review will focus on convection initiation by boundaries that are prevalent in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Boundary layer circulations, which are sometimes precursors to deep convective development, are clearly observed by radar as reflectivity fine lines and/or convergence in Doppler velocity. The corresponding thermodynamic distribution, particularly the moisture field, is not as readily measured. During IHOP_2002, a variety of sensors capable of measuring atmospheric water vapor were brought together in an effort to sample the three-dimensional time-varying moisture field and determine its impact on forecasting convection initiation. The strategy included examining convection initiation with targeted observations aimed at sampling regions forecast to be ripe for initiation, primarily along frontal zones, drylines, and their mergers. A key aspect of these investigations was the combination of varied moisture measurements with the detailed observations of the wind field, as presented in many of the subsequent papers in this issue. For example, the high-resolution measurements are being used to better understand the role of misocyclones on convection initiation. The analyses are starting to elucidate the value of new datasets, including satellite products and radar refractivity retrievals. Data assimilation studies using some of the state-of-the-art datasets from IHOP_2002 are already proving to be quite promising.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4607-4627
Author(s):  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Shubhi Agrawal ◽  
Mark C. Beauharnois ◽  
Geng Xia ◽  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
South Central ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractIn the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m−2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg−2, 59.9 W m−2, 52.4 W m−2, 240 m, and 4 m s−1, respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

scholarly journals Radar Refractivity Retrieval: Validation and Application to Short-Term Forecasting

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
Crystalyne R. Pettet ◽  
Frédéric Fabry ◽  
Shin Ju Park ◽  
Margaret A. LeMone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
National Network ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract This study will validate the S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) radar refractivity retrieval using measurements from the International H2O Project conducted in the southern Great Plains in May–June 2002. The range of refractivity measurements during this project extended out to 40–60 km from the radar. Comparisons between the radar refractivity field and fixed and mobile mesonet refractivity values within the S-Pol refractivity domain show a strong correlation. Comparisons between the radar refractivity field and low-flying aircraft also show high correlations. Thus, the radar refractivity retrieval provides a good representation of low-level atmospheric refractivity. Numerous instruments that profile the temperature and moisture are also compared with the refractivity field. Radiosonde measurements, Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometers, and a vertical-pointing Raman lidar show good agreement, especially at low levels. Under most daytime summertime conditions, radar refractivity measurements are representative of an ∼250-m-deep layer. Analyses are also performed on the utility of refractivity for short-term forecasting applications. It is found that the refractivity field may detect low-level boundaries prior to the more traditional radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity fields showing their existence. Data from two days on which convection initiated within S-Pol refractivity range suggest that the refractivity field may exhibit some potential utility in forecasting convection initiation. This study suggests that unprecedented advances in mapping near-surface water vapor and subsequent improvements in predicting convective storms could result from implementing the radar refractivity retrieval on the national network of operational radars.

scholarly journals Pristine Nocturnal Convective Initiation: A Climatology and Preliminary Examination of Predictability

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1613-1635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Stelten ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Preliminary Examination ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Times

Abstract The prediction of convective initiation remains a challenge to forecasters in the Great Plains, especially for elevated events at night. This study examines a subset of 287 likely elevated nocturnal convective initiation events that occurred with little or no direct influence from surface boundaries or preexisting convection over a 4-month period of May–August during the summer of 2015. Events were first classified into one of four types based on apparent formation mechanisms and location relative to any low-level jet. A climatology of each of the four types was performed focusing on general spatial tendencies over a large Great Plains domain and initiation timing trends. Simulations from five convection-allowing models available during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, along with four versions of a 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, were used to examine the predictability of these types of convective initiation. A dual-peak pattern for initiation timing was revealed, with one peak near 0400 UTC and another around 0700 UTC. The times and prominence of each peak shifted depending on the region analyzed. Positive thermal advection by the geostrophic wind was present in the majority of events for three types but not for the type occurring without a low-level jet. Models were more deficient with location than timing for the five PECAN models, with the four 4-km WRF Models showing similar location errors and problems with initiating convection at a lower altitude than observed.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Moisture Transport by the Low-Level Jet during the IHOP Field Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 3781-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward I. Tollerud ◽  
Fernando Caracena ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
R. Michael Hardesty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Low Level Jet

Previous studies of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Great Plains of the United States have been unable to determine the role that mesoscale and smaller circulations play in the transport of moisture. To address this issue, two aircraft missions during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to observe closely a well-developed LLJ over the Great Plains (primarily Oklahoma and Kansas) with multiple observation platforms. In addition to standard operational platforms (most important, radiosondes and profilers) to provide the large-scale setting, dropsondes released from the aircraft at 55-km intervals and a pair of onboard lidar instruments—High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) for wind and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for moisture—observed the moisture transport in the LLJ at greater resolution. Using these observations, the authors describe the multiscalar structure of the LLJ and then focus attention on the bulk properties and effects of scales of motion by computing moisture fluxes through cross sections that bracket the LLJ. From these computations, the Reynolds averages within the cross sections can be computed. This allow an estimate to be made of the bulk effect of integrated estimates of the contribution of small-scale (mesoscale to convective scale) circulations to the overall transport. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in forecasting the intensity and evolution of the LLJ for this case is briefly examined.

scholarly journals Controlled meteorological (CMET) balloon profiling of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer around Spitsbergen compared to a mesoscale model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (19) ◽  
pp. 27539-27573 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. J. Roberts ◽  
M. Dütsch ◽  
L. R. Hole ◽  
P. B. Voss
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Free Region

Abstract. Observations from CMET (Controlled Meteorological) balloons are analyzed in combination with mesoscale model simulations to provide insights into tropospheric meteorological conditions (temperature, humidity, wind-speed) around Svalbard, European High Arctic. Five Controlled Meteorological (CMET) balloons were launched from Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard over 5–12 May 2011, and measured vertical atmospheric profiles above Spitsbergen Island and over coastal areas to both the east and west. One notable CMET flight achieved a suite of 18 continuous soundings that probed the Arctic marine boundary layer over a period of more than 10 h. The CMET profiles are compared to simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using nested grids and three different boundary layer schemes. Variability between the three model schemes was typically smaller than the discrepancies between the model runs and the observations. Over Spitsbergen, the CMET flights identified temperature inversions and low-level jets (LLJ) that were not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the model largely reproduced time-series obtained from the Ny-Ålesund meteorological station, with exception of surface winds during the LLJ. Over sea-ice east of Svalbard the model underestimated potential temperature and overestimated wind-speed compared to the CMET observations. This is most likely due to the full sea-ice coverage assumed by the model, and consequent underestimation of ocean–atmosphere exchange in the presence of leads or fractional coverage. The suite of continuous CMET soundings over a sea-ice free region to the northwest of Svalbard are analysed spatially and temporally, and compared to the model. The observed along-flight daytime increase in relative humidity is interpreted in terms of the diurnal cycle, and in the context of marine and terrestrial air-mass influences. Analysis of the balloon trajectory during the CMET soundings identifies strong wind-shear, with a low-level channeled flow. The study highlights the challenges of modelling the Arctic atmosphere, especially in coastal zones with varying topography, sea-ice and surface conditions. In this context, CMET balloons provide a valuable technology for profiling the free atmosphere and boundary layer in remote regions where few other observations are available for model validation.

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