scholarly journals H. L. Wagner's Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 802-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Armistead

Abstract The paper briefly reviews measures that have been proposed since the 1880s to assess accuracy and skill in categorical weather forecasting. The majority of the measures consist of a single expression, for example, a proportion, the difference between two proportions, a ratio, or a coefficient. Two exemplar single-expression measures for 2 × 2 categorical arrays that chronologically bracket the 130-yr history of this effort—Doolittle's inference ratio i and Stephenson's odds ratio skill score (ORSS)—are reviewed in detail. Doolittle's i is appropriately calculated using conditional probabilities, and the ORSS is a valid measure of association, but both measures are limited in ways that variously mirror all single-expression measures for categorical forecasting. The limitations that variously affect such measures include their inability to assess the separate accuracy rates of different forecast–event categories in a matrix, their sensitivity to the interdependence of forecasts in a 2 × 2 matrix, and the inapplicability of many of them to the general k × k (k ≥ 2) problem. The paper demonstrates that Wagner's unbiased hit rate, developed for use in categorical judgment studies with any k × k (k ≥ 2) array, avoids these limitations while extending the dual-measure Bayesian approach proposed by Murphy and Winkler in 1987.

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-37
Author(s):  
Natalie Binczek

Der deutsche Barockdichter Georg Philipp Harsdörffer skizziert eine Theorie der Emblematik, die vor allem dessen Anwendungsvielfalt hervorhebt. Er hebt dabei besonders den Unterschied zwischen buchinterner und buchexterner Verwendung auf, indem er sich nicht nur für die Aufnahme der Embleme in Büchern, sondern auch auf Geschirr und Tapeten ausspricht. Der Beitrag liest Harsdörffers extensive Überlegungen nicht nur als Beiträge zur Theorie und Geschichte der Embleme als ›Sinn-Bilder‹, sondern auch als Beitrag zur Designgeschichte. German Baroque poet Georg Philipp Harsdörffer delineates a theory of emblematics that clearly sets itself apart from other contemporary theories, especially by its versatility. In particular, the author negates the difference between internal and external usage of emblems in books not only by promoting the incorporation of emblems into printed works but also by supporting their depiction on dishes and tapestries. This article strives to read Harsdörffer’s extensive thoughts on the matter of emblems not simply as another work on the theory and history of emblematics but rather as a contribution to design history as well


Author(s):  
Zulpadli Zulpadli

This paper briefly and through theoretical studies will discuss simply the problems formulated, the impact of globalization on Character education in Indonesia, as well as the paradigm of PKN learning and Character education challenges for the younger generation. It is on the ground by the declining awareness and moral values, as well as to increase the values of the characters seen in the young generations. Civic education in Indonesia has been running throughout the history of Indonesian independence, and has gone through various stages and arms, it certainly demands greater hard work of teachers to be able to increase the values of Pancasila and love of the homeland, and practice the character values which is based on the noble values of Indonesian culture into Indonesian youth.


Author(s):  
Simon Kirchin

This chapter introduces the distinction between thin and thick concepts and then performs a number of functions. First, two major accounts of thick concepts—separationism and nonseparationism—are introduced and, in doing so, a novel account of evaluation is indicated. Second, each chapter is outlined as is the general methodology, followed, third, by a brief history of the discussion of thick concepts, referencing Philippa Foot, Hilary Putnam, Gilbert Ryle, and Bernard Williams among others. Fourth, a number of relevant contrasts are introduced, such as the fact–value distinction and the difference between concepts, properties, and terms. Lastly, some interesting and relevant questions are raised that, unfortunately, have to be left aside.


2002 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 268-269
Author(s):  
Larry Neal

Economic historians usually have to explain to their economist colleagues the difference between economic history, which focuses on facts, and history of economic thought, which focuses on ideas. Our colleagues in finance departments, typically fascinated by episodes in financial history treated by economic historians, are bound to be disappointed in the lack of attention given to the development of ideas in finance by historians of economic thought. Geoffrey Poitras, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University, makes a valiant effort to remedy these oversights in his collection of vignettes that highlight the sophistication of financial instruments and analysts of financial markets well before the time of Adam Smith. Starting in 1478 with the publication of the Treviso Arithmetic, a typical textbook of commercial arithmetic for Italian merchants, and ending with brief snippets from the Wealth of Nations, Poitras treats the reader to a fascinating potpourri of excerpts from various manuals, brief biographies of pioneers in financial analysis, and historical discursions on foreign-exchange and stock markets.


2021 ◽  
pp. 016224392110323
Author(s):  
Kristina Popova

The article addresses the production of reproducibility as a topic that has become acutely relevant in the recent discussions on the replication crisis in science. It brings the ethnomethodological stance on reproducibility into the discussions, claiming that reproducibility is necessarily produced locally, on the shop floor, with methodological guidelines serving as references to already established practices rather than their origins. The article refers to this argument empirically, analyzing how a group of novice neuroscientists performs a series of measurements in a transcranial magnetic stimulation experiment. Based on ethnography and video analysis, the article traces a history of the local measurement procedure invented by the researchers in order to overcome the experimental uncertainty. The article aims to demonstrate (1) how reproducibility of the local procedure is achieved in the shop floor work of the practitioners and (2) how the procedure becomes normalized and questioned as incorrect in the course of experimental practice. It concludes that the difference between guidelines and practical actions is not problematic per se; what may be problematic is that researchers can be engaged in different working projects described by the same instruction.


2021 ◽  
pp. 197140092110006
Author(s):  
Warren Chang ◽  
Ajla Kadribegic ◽  
Kate Denham ◽  
Matthew Kulzer ◽  
Tyson Tragon ◽  
...  

Purpose A common complication of lumbar puncture (LP) is postural headaches. Epidural blood patches are recommended if patients fail conservative management. Owing to a perceived increase in the number of post-lumbar puncture headaches (PLPHs) requiring epidural blood patches at a regional hospital in our network, the decision was made to switch from 20 to 22 gauge needles for routine diagnostic LPs. Materials and methods Patients presenting for LP and myelography at one network regional hospital were included in the study. The patients were contacted by nursing staff 3 days post-procedure; those patients who still had postural headaches after conservative management and received epidural blood patches were considered positive cases. In total, 292 patients were included; 134 underwent LP with 20-gauge needles (53 male, 81 female, average age 57.7) and 158 underwent LP with 22-gauge needles (79 male, 79 female, average age 54.6). Results Of 134 patients undergoing LP with 20-gauge needles, 15 (11%) had PLPH requiring epidural blood patch (11 female, 3 male, average age 38). Of 158 patients undergoing LP with 22-gauge needles, only 5 (3%) required epidural blood patches (all female, average age 43). The difference was statistically significant ( p < 0.01). Risk factors for PLPH included female gender, younger age, lower body mass index, history of prior PLPH and history of headaches. Conclusion Switching from 20-gauge to 22-gauge needles significantly decreased the incidence of PLPH requiring epidural blood patch. Narrower gauge or non-cutting needles should be considered in patients with risk factors for PLPH, allowing for CSF requirements.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S48-S48
Author(s):  
Hartman Brunt ◽  
Mason Adams ◽  
Michael Barker ◽  
Diana Hamer ◽  
J C Chapman

Abstract Purpose Crohn’s disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by an abnormal immune response to intestinal microbes in a genetically susceptible host. The objective of this cohort analysis is to compare demographic characteristics, cost difference, and treatment modalities between patients who were discharged from the Emergency Department (ED) and those who were admitted to the hospital. Methods This study is a retrospective chart review of adult patients diagnosed with CD who were discharged from the ED and those who were admitted to the hospital between January 1, 2014 and January 1, 2017. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics as well as total charges incurred by these patients. A chi square test of independence and a Mann Whitney U-Test were used to compare categorical variables. Linear and logistic regression analyses were utilized to identify predictors of hospitalization and total charges. Results Of a total 195 patients, 97 were discharged from the ED and 98 were admitted to the hospital (Table 1). Patients who presented with fever, nausea/vomiting, or abdominal pain or who had a history of a fistula or stenosis were more likely to be hospitalized, as were patients who presented on steroids, 5-ASA compounds, or narcotics (Table 2). A logistic regression adjusted for these factors showed patients presenting with abdominal pain (OR=0.239, 95% CI 0.07 – 0.77) are less likely, while patients presenting with fever (OR=7.0, 95% CI 1.9 – 24.5) and history of stenosis (OR=17.8, 95% CI 5.7 – 55.9) are more likely to have a hospital admission. An increase in age and white blood cell count was associated with an increase in likelihood of admission (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.07 and OR=1.2, 95% CI 1.1 – 1.4), while an increase in HGB was associated with a decrease in likelihood of admission (OR=0.682, 95% CI 0.55 – 0.83). Patients on 5-ASA compounds had the strongest association with hospital admission (OR=4.5, 95% CI 1.03 – 20.4). A linear regression analysis predicting total charges of hospitalization identified an increase of $37,500 (95% CI 6,600 – 68,489) for obese patients and of $29,000 (95% CI 20 – 57,000) for patients on narcotics prior to hospitalization. Notably, blacks were on average 6 years younger than whites (μ=36.2, st.d.=13.2 v μ=42.7, st.d.=18.2, p=0.031, respectively). No other differences in presentation or outcomes of CD were identified between these races. Conclusion This study describes the difference between CD patients who were admitted to the hospital compared to those who were discharged from the ED. The impact that 5-ASA compound, steroid, and narcotic use prior to presentation has on hospital admission and charges highlights the need for consistent outpatient care to manage the symptoms and disease progression in patients with CD in Baton Rouge. The difference in age at presentation between blacks and whites should also be considered in future research.


2005 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1010-1021
Author(s):  
Xu Jianzhong

Abstract Science translation is a new branch of learning in China, but its practice can be traced back to about 200 BC. It includes all the practical fields but literary translation. It is the translation activity that mainly conveys science information, especially a thought activity and extra-language activity of the translator’s using target language to express the science information of source language so as to pursue the similar information. This paper briefly examines its history chronologically, and explores its gradual movement from practice to theory, from written translation to oral interpretation, from general theory to discipline studies. The history of science translation is composed of human translation and machine translation, but this paper only deals with the former.


2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (04) ◽  
pp. 568-571
Author(s):  
Saira Bano ◽  
Sumaya Khan ◽  
Mahnoor Waqar ◽  
Moniba Iqbal ◽  
Hamza Waqar Bhatti ◽  
...  

Objective: To determine the difference in mean corneal curvatures before and after pterygium excision. Study Design: Quasi-experimental study. Setting: Department of Ophthalmology, Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi. Period: 1st January 2015 to 1st July 2015. Material & Methods: 68 patients aged between 18 to 65 years were included in the study. Patients with history of ocular trauma, ocular surgery, glaucoma, anti-glaucoma treatment, allergy to steroids, pseudo pterygium, recurrent pterygium and presence of corneal abnormalities such as, scarring that might affect the astigmatic value were excluded. All patients underwent comprehensive ophthalmic examination by slit lamp and best corrected visual acuity and keratometric values were noted. Pterygium excision was done by a single surgeon. BCVA and keratometric readings were taken again after 2 weeks of pterygium excision. Results: Mean age was 37.60 ± 11.11 years. Out of these 68 patients, 44 (64.71%) were male and 24 (35.29%) were females. Mean pre-operative corneal curvature was 2.99 ± 0.69D and post-operative corneal curvature was 1.70 ± 0.40D with P-value of <0.0001 which is statistically significant. Conclusion: This study concluded that pterygium excision brings significant change in corneal curvature in patients of pterygium induced astigmatism.


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