CONUS-Wide Evaluation of National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance Products

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Clark ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Zachary L. Flamig ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Edward Clark
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Flooding Event ◽  
Flash Flood Guidance ◽  
Critical Success Index

Abstract This study quantifies the skill of the National Weather Service’s (NWS) flash flood guidance (FFG) product. Generated by River Forecast Centers (RFCs) across the United States, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices compare estimated and forecast rainfall to FFG to monitor and assess flash flooding potential. A national flash flood observation database consisting of reports in the NWS publication Storm Data and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge measurements are used to determine the skill of FFG over a 4-yr period. FFG skill is calculated at several different precipitation-to-FFG ratios for both observation datasets. Although a ratio of 1.0 nominally indicates a potential flash flooding event, this study finds that FFG can be more skillful when ratios other than 1.0 are considered. When the entire continental United States is considered, the highest observed critical success index (CSI) with 1-h FFG is 0.20 for the USGS dataset, which should be considered a benchmark for future research that seeks to improve, modify, or replace the current FFG system. Regional benchmarks of FFG skill are also determined on an RFC-by-RFC basis. When evaluated against Storm Data reports, the regional skill of FFG ranges from 0.00 to 0.19. When evaluated against USGS stream gauge measurements, the regional skill of FFG ranges from 0.00 to 0.44.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Tools Used for Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 158-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Jessica M. Erlingis ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Ernest B. Wells
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting ◽  
First Time

Abstract This paper evaluates, for the first time, flash-flood guidance (FFG) values and recently developed gridded FFG (GFFG) used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to monitor and predict imminent flash flooding, which is the leading storm-related cause of death in the United States. It is envisioned that results from this study will be used 1) to establish benchmark performance of existing operational flash-flood prediction tools and 2) to provide information to NWS forecasters that reveals how the existing tools can be readily optimized. Sources used to evaluate the products include official reports of flash floods from the NWS Storm Data database, discharge measurements on small basins available from the U.S. Geological Survey, and witness reports of flash flooding collected during the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment. Results indicated that the operational guidance values, with no calibration, were marginally skillful, with the highest critical success index of 0.20 occurring with 3-h GFFG. The false-alarm rates fell and the skill improved to 0.34 when the rainfall was first spatially averaged within basins and then reached 50% of FFG for 1-h accumulation and exceeded 3-h FFG. Although the skill of the GFFG values was generally lower than that of their FFG counterparts, GFFG was capable of detecting the spatial variability of reported flash flooding better than FFG was for a case study in an urban setting.

scholarly journals A Unified Flash Flood Database across the United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (6) ◽  
pp. 799-805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Zachary L. Flamig ◽  
Ami Arthur ◽  
Robert Clark ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Spatiotemporal Behavior ◽  
Flood Database ◽  
Flooding Events

Despite flash flooding being one of the most deadly and costly weather-related natural hazards worldwide, individual datasets to characterize them in the United States are hampered by limited documentation and can be difficult to access. This study is the first of its kind to assemble, reprocess, describe, and disseminate a georeferenced U.S. database providing a long-term, detailed characterization of flash flooding in terms of spatiotemporal behavior and specificity of impacts. The database is composed of three primary sources: 1) the entire archive of automated discharge observations from the U.S. Geological Survey that has been reprocessed to describe individual flooding events, 2) flash-flooding reports collected by the National Weather Service from 2006 to the present, and 3) witness reports obtained directly from the public in the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment during the summers 2008–10. Each observational data source has limitations; a major asset of the unified flash flood database is its collation of relevant information from a variety of sources that is now readily available to the community in common formats. It is anticipated that this database will be used for many diverse purposes, such as evaluating tools to predict flash flooding, characterizing seasonal and regional trends, and improving understanding of dominant flood-producing processes. We envision the initiation of this community database effort will attract and encompass future datasets.

scholarly journals Mapping Flash Flood Severity in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 397-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manabendra Saharia ◽  
Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter ◽  
Humberto Vergara ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Fast Onset ◽  
Multidisciplinary Nature ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
Gauged Basins

Abstract Flash floods, a subset of floods, are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide because of their multidisciplinary nature, difficulty in forecasting, and fast onset that limits emergency responses. In this study, a new variable called “flashiness” is introduced as a measure of flood severity. This work utilizes a representative and long archive of flooding events spanning 78 years to map flash flood severity, as quantified by the flashiness variable. Flood severity is then modeled as a function of a large number of geomorphological and climatological variables, which is then used to extend and regionalize the flashiness variable from gauged basins to a high-resolution grid covering the conterminous United States. Six flash flood “hotspots” are identified and additional analysis is presented on the seasonality of flash flooding. The findings from this study are then compared to other related datasets in the United States, including National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database.

Fragments of the American Dream: Immigration, Race, and Medical Care in the Segregated South, 1929

Public Voices ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
John R Phillips
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
American Dream ◽  
Black Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Single Woman ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Legal Doctrine ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sunflower County

The cover photograph for this issue of Public Voices was taken sometime in the summer of 1929 (probably June) somewhere in Sunflower County, Mississippi. Very probably the photo was taken in Indianola but, perhaps, it was Ruleville. It is one of three such photos, one of which does have the annotation on the reverse “Ruleville Midwives Club 1929.” The young woman wearing a tie in this and in one of the other photos was Ann Reid Brown, R.N., then a single woman having only arrived in the United States from Scotland a few years before, in 1923. Full disclosure: This commentary on the photo combines professional research interests in public administration and public policy with personal interests—family interests—for that young nurse later married and became the author’s mother. From the scholarly perspective, such photographs have been seen as “instrumental in establishing midwives’ credentials and cultural identity at a key transitional moment in the history of the midwife and of public health” (Keith, Brennan, & Reynolds 2012). There is also deep irony if we see these photographs as being a fragment of the American dream, of a recent immigrant’s hope for and success at achieving that dream; but that fragment of the vision is understood quite differently when we see that she began a hopeful career working with a Black population forcibly segregated by law under the incongruously named “separate but equal” legal doctrine. That doctrine, derived from the United States Supreme Court’s 1896 decision, Plessy v. Ferguson, would remain the foundation for legally enforced segregation throughout the South for another quarter century. The options open to the young, white, immigrant nurse were almost entirely closed off for the population with which she then worked. The remaining parts of this overview are meant to provide the following: (1) some biographical information on the nurse; (2) a description, in so far as we know it, of why she was in Mississippi; and (3) some indication of areas for future research on this and related topics.

Questions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James L. Gibson ◽  
Michael J. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The U.S

We have investigated the differences in support for the U.S. Supreme Court among black, Hispanic, and white Americans, catalogued the variation in African Americans’ group attachments and experiences with legal authorities, and examined how those latter two factors shape individuals’ support for the U.S. Supreme Court, that Court’s decisions, and for their local legal system. We take this opportunity to weave our findings together, taking stock of what we have learned from our analyses and what seem like fruitful paths for future research. In the process, we revisit Positivity Theory. We present a modified version of the theory that we hope will guide future inquiry on public support for courts, both in the United States and abroad.

Introduction

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis D. Stimeling
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Country Music ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Music Culture ◽  
Rich Variety ◽  
Ethnographic Studies ◽  
Folklore Studies ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Rich

This chapter offers a historiographic survey of country music scholarship from the publication of Bill C. Malone’s “A History of Commercial Country Music in the United States, 1920–1964” (1965) to the leading publications of the today. Very little of substance has been written on country music recorded since the 1970s, especially when compared to the wealth of available literature on early country recording artists. Ethnographic studies of country music and country music culture are rare, and including ethnographic methods in country music studies offers new insights into the rich variety of ways in which people make, consume, and engage with country music as a genre. The chapter traces the influence of folklore studies, sociology, cultural studies, and musicology on the development of country music studies and proposes some directions for future research in the field.

Secular Living as a Context for Moral Development

2020 ◽  
pp. 612-628
Author(s):  
Phil Zuckerman ◽  
Kyle Thompson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Moral Development ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Philosophical Discussion

Despite widespread suspicion to the contrary, secular living can and does serve as an adequate, or even excellent, context for moral development. In this chapter, the authors present the contours of contemporary anti-atheist prejudice, with an emphasis on the United States. Next, they explore the empirical data showing that individual atheists and highly secularized societies, such as Sweden and Denmark, are often quite moral, which serves to counter and debunk anti-atheist prejudice. Then, the authors move to a philosophical discussion centering around secular morality itself, outlining general merits of atheistic morality specifically while simultaneously pointing out various problematic assumptions of theistic morality. Finally, the authors conclude and make recommendations for future research.

scholarly journals Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1061
Author(s):  
Thanh Thi Luong ◽  
Judith Pöschmann ◽  
Rico Kronenberg ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Critical Discharge ◽  
Critical Success Index

Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The flash flood guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information are required to issue warnings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 h, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996–2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The proposed adjusted FFG approach has the potential to provide reliable support in flash flood forecasting.

Racial and Political Dynamics of an Approaching “Majority-Minority” United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 677 (1) ◽  
pp. 204-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maureen A. Craig ◽  
Julian M. Rucker ◽  
Jennifer A. Richeson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Psychological Mechanisms ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Essential Questions ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
Demographic Shifts ◽  
Projected Changes

Do demographic shifts in the racial composition of the United States promote positive changes in the nation’s racial dynamics? Change in response to the nation’s growing diversity is likely, but its direction and scope are less clear. This review integrates emerging social-scientific research that examines how Americans are responding to the projected changes in the racial/ethnic demographics of the United States. Specifically, we review recent empirical research that examines how exposure to information that the United States is becoming a “majority-minority” nation affects racial attitudes and several political outcomes (e.g., ideology, policy preferences), and the psychological mechanisms that give rise to those attitudes. We focus primarily on the reactions of members of the current dominant racial group (i.e., white Americans). We then consider important implications of these findings and propose essential questions for future research.

scholarly journals Nonprofits and the Promotion of Civic Engagement: A Conceptual Framework for Understanding the "Civic Footprint" of Nonprofits within Local Communities

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Micheal L. Shier ◽  
Lindsey McDougle ◽  
Femida Handy
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Rural Community ◽  
Community Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Education And Awareness

ABSTRACT   The literature suggests that nonprofit organizations provide civic benefits by promoting engagement within local communities. However, there exists minimal empirical evidence describing the ways in which nonprofits actually undertake this role. In order to address this omission, we conducted interviews with personnel of nonprofit organizations in one rural community in the United States. Our preliminary findings indicate that nonprofit organizations promote civic engagement through programs and activities that: 1) engage volunteers and donors; 2) bring community members together; 3) collaborate with organizations within and beyond the community; and 4) promote community education and awareness. Together, these findings help to develop a working model to understand the civic footprint of nonprofit organizations with methodological implications for future research that would seek to measure the extent to which nonprofits promote civic engagement. Il est normal de supposer que les associations à but non lucratif favorisent l’engagement du citoyen dans les communautés locales. Cependant, il existe peu de données empiriques sur la manière dont ces associations assument véritablement ce rôle. Pour combler ce manque, nous avons mené des entretiens semi-directifs approfondis auprès du personnel d’associations à but non lucratif dans une petite communauté rurale aux États-Unis. Nos résultats préliminaires indiquent que ces associations motivent les citoyens à s’impliquer quand elles offrent des programmes et des activités qui : 1) intéressent les bénévoles et les donateurs; 2) rassemblent directement ou indirectement les membres de la communauté; 3) collaborent avec d’autres associations tant au sein de la communauté qu’au-delà de celle-ci; et 4) encouragent l’éducation et la conscientisation communautaires. Ces constats aident à établir un modèle pour mieux comprendre la présence civique des associations à but non lucratif dans les communautés et indiquent une piste à suivre pour des recherches futures qui examineraient l’influence de ces associations sur le niveau de participation civique.

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