scholarly journals Evaluation of Global Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
Efren A. Serra ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Joshua H. Cossuth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
High Bias ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe U.S. Navy is keenly interested in analyses and predictions of waves at sea due to their effects on important tasks such as shipping, base preparedness and disaster relief. U.S. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecast Centers routinely disseminate wind probabilities consistent with official TC forecasts worldwide, but do not do the same for wave forecasts. These probabilities are especially important at longer leads where TC forecast accuracy diminishes. This work describes global wave probabilities consistent with both the official TC forecasts and their wind probabilities. Real-time runs for 84 TCs between May 2018 and March 2019, with probabilities generated for 12-ft and 18-ft significant wave heights are used to calculate verification statistics. This results in 347, 319, 261, 214, 155, and 112 verification cases at lead times of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 days where each verification case consists of a 20x20 degree latitude longitude grid around the verifying TC position. When compared with wave probabilities generated solely by a global numerical weather prediction model, the wind probability-based algorithm demonstrates improved consistency with official forecasts and provides additional benefits. Those benefits include an improved capability to discriminate between 12-ft and 18-ft significant wave events and non-events. The verification statistics also shows that the wind probability-based algorithm has a consistent high bias. How these biases can be reduced in future efforts is also discussed.

scholarly journals Study of the threshold for the POT method based on hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuxiao Shao ◽  
Bingchen Liang ◽  
Huajun Li ◽  
Ping Li ◽  
Dongyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
South China ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Initial Sample ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
Assessing Method

Abstract. An assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering in this area. Two significant factors influencing the assessment are the initial database and the assessing method. The initial database is a basic for assessment, and the assessing method is used to extrapolate appropriate return significant wave heights based on this database during a period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcasted significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves is adopted as the initial database. Based on this database, the peak significant wave height of every tropical cyclone wave is directly extracted as the initial sample; the independent and identically distributed assumption is satisfied; and the interference for the selection of the sample is avoided. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is employed to extract the sufficiently large and high sample for model estimation. The peak excesses over a sufficiently high value (i.e., threshold) are fitted; thus, the return significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine the unique threshold for the POT method, characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are researched. The research results reveal that the separation value shown in the distribution of the initial sample is suitable for sampling in the SCS. Because the separation value is within the stable threshold range and the asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty are reasonable, the selected threshold is suitable and the corresponding return significant wave height is reliable.

Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2035-2045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James A. Hansen ◽  
Paul A. Wittmann ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Andrea Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wave ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
Ocean Surface Wave

Abstract Development of a 12-ft-seas significant wave height ensemble consistent with the official tropical cyclone intensity, track, and wind structure forecasts and their errors from the operational U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers is described. To generate the significant wave height ensemble, a Monte Carlo wind speed probability algorithm that produces forecast ensemble members is used. These forecast ensemble members, each created from the official forecast and randomly sampled errors from historical official forecast errors, are then created immediately after the official forecast is completed. Of 1000 forecast ensemble members produced by the wind speed algorithm, 128 of them are selected and processed to produce wind input for an ocean surface wave model. The wave model is then run once per realization to produce 128 possible forecasts of significant wave height. Probabilities of significant wave height at critical thresholds can then be computed from the ocean surface wave model–generated significant wave heights. Evaluations of the ensemble are provided in terms of maximum significant wave height and radius of 12-ft significant wave height—two parameters of interest to both U.S. Navy meteorologists and U.S. Navy operators. Ensemble mean errors and biases of maximum significant wave height and radius of 12-ft significant wave height are found to be similar to those of a deterministic version of the same algorithm. Ensemble spreads capture most verifying maximum and radii of 12-ft significant wave heights.

scholarly journals Extreme significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2067-2077 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuxiao Shao ◽  
Bingchen Liang ◽  
Huajun Li ◽  
Ping Li ◽  
Dongyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
South China ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights

Abstract. Extreme significant wave heights are assessed in the South China Sea (SCS), as assessments of wave heights are crucial for coastal and offshore engineering. Two significant factors include the initial database and assessment method. The initial database is a basis for assessment, and the assessment method is used to extrapolate appropriate return-significant wave heights during a given period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcast of tropical cyclone waves is used to analyse the extreme significant wave height, employing the peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model. The peak exceedances over a sufficiently large value (i.e. threshold) are fitted; thus, the return-significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine a suitable threshold, the sensitivity of return-significant wave heights and the characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are studied. The sample distribution presents a separation that distinguishes the high sample from the low sample, and this separation is within the stable threshold range. Because the variation in return-significant wave heights in this range is generally small and the separation is objectively determined by the track and intensity of the tropical cyclone, the separation is selected as a suitable threshold for extracting the extreme sample in the tropical cyclone wave. The asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty show that the selection is reasonable.

scholarly journals WIND SPECIFICATION FOR SPECTRAL OCEAN-WAVE MODELS

1986 ◽  
Vol 1 (20) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
M.L. Khandekar ◽  
B.M. Eid
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Operational Mode ◽  
Spectral Models ◽  
Ocean Wave Model ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
Wave Models

This paper investigates the utility of winds obtainable from a numerical weather prediction model for driving a spectral ocean-wave model in an operational mode. Wind inputs for two operational spectral wave models were analyzed with respect to observed winds at three locations in the Canadian east coast offshore. Also, significant wave heights obtainable from the two spectral models were evaluated against measured wave data at these locations. Based on this analysis, the importance of appropriate wind specification for operational wave analysis and forecasting is demonstrated.

SIMULATION OF NEARSHORE WAVES AND CURRENTS ALONG SALALAH COAST (OMAN) DURING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARB01

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
AbdAlla M. AbdAlla ◽  
AbdAlla M. AbdAlla ◽  
Abkar A. Iraqi ◽  
Abkar A. Iraqi ◽  
Magdy M. Farag ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Domain Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Shielding Effect ◽  
Strong Current ◽  
Waves And Currents ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Nearshore Waves ◽  
Flood Period ◽  
Significant Wave Heights

Sea level and wave data at Salalah coast (Oman) were used to simulate nearshore waves and current during the tropical cyclone ARB01 (9 May2002). STWAVE model (Steady State Spectral Wave) was applied for nearshore wave simulation, while M2D model ((Two-Dimensional Depth Averaged circulation model) was used to simulate nearshore current. The results of simulations (taking into account the mutual effects of both current and waves) showed that: The significant wave heights generally decrease from about 6m at the domain boundary to about 1 m close to the coast. The wave heights during the ebb period were higher than that during the flood period by about 1.5m. Along Salalah coast, higher waves were found along the eastern side of the domain. This is because the shielding effect of breakwater, which protect the western part of the coast from high waves. Relatively Strong current with values up to 1.5 ms-1 were found in the nearshore region during both ebb and flood periods. The M2D model results also showed cyclonic circulations during these periods which help in the renewal of harbor waters. Generally, the model results showed good agreements with observations in the investigated area.

scholarly journals Numerical Analysis of the Effect of Binary Typhoons on Ocean Surface Waves in Waters Surrounding Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzu-Yin Chang ◽  
Hongey Chen ◽  
Shih-Chun Hsiao ◽  
Han-Lun Wu ◽  
Wei-Bo Chen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waves ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Ocean Surface Waves ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Storm Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Significant Wave Heights ◽  
The One ◽  
Along Track

The ocean surface waves during Super Typhoons Maria (2018), Lekima (2019), and Meranti (2016) were reproduced using hybrid typhoon winds and a fully coupled wave-tide-circulation modeling system (SCHISM-WWM-III). The hindcasted significant wave heights are in good agreement with the along-track significant wave heights measured by the altimeters aboard the SARAL (Satellite with ARgos and ALtiKa) and Jason-2 satellites. Two numerical experiments pairing Super Typhoons Maria (2018) and Meranti (2016) and Super Typhoons Lekima (2019) and Meranti (2016) were conducted to analyze the storm wave characteristics of binary and individual typhoons. Four points located near the tracks of the three super typhoons were selected to elucidate the effects of binary typhoons on ocean surface waves. The comparisons indicate that binary typhoons not only cause an increase in the significant wave height simulations at four selected pints but also result in increases in the one-dimensional wave energy and two-dimensional directional wave spectra. Our results also reveal that the effects of binary typhoons on ocean surface waves are more significant at the periphery of the typhoon than near the center of the typhoon. The interactions between waves generated by Super Typhoons Maria (2018) and Meranti (2016) or Super Typhoons Lekima (2019) and Meranti (2016) might be diminished by Taiwan Island even if the separation distance between two typhoons is <700 km.

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