Differential Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat: A Phoenix, Arizona, Case Study

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
Hannah Brenkert-Smith ◽  
Olga V. Wilhelmi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Excessive Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase the number of days producing excessive heat across the southwestern United States, increasing population exposure to extreme heat events. Extreme heat is currently the main cause of weather-related mortality in the United States, where the negative health effects of extreme heat are disproportionately distributed among geographic regions and demographic groups. To more effectively identify vulnerability to extreme heat, complementary local-level studies of adaptive capacity within a population are needed to augment census-based demographic data and downscaled weather and climate models. This pilot study, conducted in August 2009 in Phoenix, Arizona, reports responses from 359 households in three U.S. Census block groups identified as heat-vulnerable based on heat distress calls, decedent records, and demographic characteristics. This study sought to understand social vulnerability to extreme heat at the local level as a complex phenomenon with explicit characterization of coping and adaptive capacity among urban residents.

scholarly journals Development of a Submonthly Temperature Product to Monitor Near-Real-Time Climate Conditions and Assess Long-Term Heat Events in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 2653-2674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Rennie ◽  
Jesse E. Bell ◽  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Stephanie Herring ◽  
Heidi Cullen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Event ◽  
Heat Events

AbstractLand surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such analyses, it is important that nonclimatic influences be removed or changed so that the dataset is considered to be homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation, and observing practices. Many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, but few daily and weekly products exist. Recently, a submonthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of such events. It is also established that heat events can have significant public health impacts, including increases in mortality and morbidity. The method to identify extreme heat events using daily homogeneous temperature data is described and used to develop a climatology of heat event onset, length, and severity. This climatology encompasses nearly 3000 extreme maximum and minimum temperature events across the United States since 1901. A sizeable number of events occurred during the Dust Bowl period of the 1930s; however, trend analysis shows an increase in heat event number and length since 1951. Overnight extreme minimum temperature events are increasing more than daytime maximum temperatures, and regional analysis shows that events are becoming much more prevalent in the western and southeastern parts of the United States.

scholarly journals Underneath Kyoto: Emerging Subnational Government Initiatives and Incipient Issue-Bundling Opportunities in China and the United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. Koehn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Healthy Human ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Stabilization Policies

At present, progress in mitigating global GHG emissions is impeded by political stalemate at the national level in the United States and the People's Republic of China. Through the conceptual lenses of multilevel governance and framing politics, the article analyzes emerging policy initiatives among subnational governments in both countries. Effective subnational emission-mitigating action requires framing climatic-stabilization policies in terms of local co-benefits associated with environmental protection, health promotion, and economic advantage. In an impressive group of US states and cities, and increasingly at the local level in China, public concerns about air pollution, consumption and waste management, traffic congestion, health threats, the ability to attract tourists, and/or diminishing resources are legitimizing policy developments that carry the co-benefit of controlling GHG emissions. A co-benefits framing strategy that links individual and community concerns for morbidity, mortality, stress reduction, and healthy human development for all with GHG-emission limitation/reduction is especially likely to resonate powerfully at the subnational level throughout China and the United States.

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

New Mayors: France and the United States

1987 ◽  
Vol 8 (x) ◽  
pp. 263-275
Author(s):  
Richard Balme ◽  
Jeanne Becquart-Leclercq ◽  
Terry N. Clark ◽  
Vincent Hoffmann-Martinot ◽  
Jean-Yves Nevers
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Local Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Socialist Government ◽  
The University ◽  
The City ◽  
Significant Support ◽  
The Welfare State

In 1983 we organized a conference on “Questioning the Welfare State and the Rise of the City” at the University of Paris, Nanterre. About a hundred persons attended, including many French social scientists and political activists. Significant support came from the new French Socialist government. Yet with Socialism in power since 1981, it was clear that the old Socialist ideas were being questioned inside and outside the Party and government—especially in the important decentralization reforms. There was eager interest in better ways to deliver welfare state services at the local level.

scholarly journals A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Wozniak ◽  
Allison Steiner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Pollen Counts ◽  
Surface Pollen

Abstract. We develop a prognostic model of Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model: (1) using a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology and emission potential, and (2) a PFT-based land cover, phenology and emission potential. The resulting surface concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model, however we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the general representation of the pollen phenology over the United States.

scholarly journals Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat: Results from a Household Survey in Houston, Texas

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 787-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
Olga V. Wilhelmi ◽  
Deborah Banerjee ◽  
Tamara Greasby ◽  
Jamie L. Cavanaugh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Population Vulnerability ◽  
Heat Risk ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the United States, suggesting the necessity for better understanding population vulnerability to extreme heat. The work presented here is part of a larger study examining vulnerability to extreme heat in current and future climates [System for Integrated Modeling of Metropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER)] and was undertaken to assess Houston, Texas, residents’ adaptive capacity to extreme heat. A comprehensive, semistructured survey was conducted by telephone at 901 households in Houston in 2011. Frequency and logistic regression analyses were conducted. Results show that 20% of the survey respondents reported heat-related symptoms in the summer of 2011 despite widespread air conditioning availability throughout Houston. Of those reporting heat-related symptoms experienced in the home (n = 56), the majority could not afford to use air conditioning because of the high cost of electricity. This research highlights the efficacy of community-based surveys to better understand adaptive capacity at the household level; this survey contextualizes population vulnerability and identifies more targeted intervention strategies and adaptation actions.

Extreme Heat

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The World ◽  
Heat Events

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are periods of high temperatures and humidity that are considered to be unusual for a specific geographic location. For example, in 1995 an extended heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, in the United States was blamed for the deaths of 550 citizens. Most of the dead were elderly, poor individuals who may not have realized that heat could kill, or who had no means of mitigating the rising temperatures in their homes or any way to escape to a cooler environment. In 2003, Europe was subjected to an EHE that is estimated to have resulted in the deaths of 70,000, with 15,000 of those deaths in Paris, France. “Extreme heat” is a relative term. Individuals adapt to their local climate, so it is difficult to use an absolute number to describe the conditions meteorologists consider a relative change from past conditions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines extreme heat as “summertime temperatures that are substantially hotter and/or more humid than average for location at that time of year.” According to the Public Health Institute’s Center for Climate Change, the state of California defines extreme heat days as those days above the 98th percentile of maximum temperatures based on 1961–1990 data for a specific location. Crucial to understanding extreme heat events is the collection of data about temperature and humidity. The US Global Change Research Program provides heat wave data spanning 1961 to 2018. The site links to a variety of programs related to global climate modeling. The National Resources Defense Council is a nongovernmental organization that has excellent maps which show change over time in the frequency of extreme heat events that overlay the human impact of these events. The National Centers for Environmental Information provides graphic data of current weather conditions along with lists of significant climate anomalies. The site has links to weather records and tools. All of these sites rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for their data. There are equivalent agencies all over the world. The World Meteorological Organization, part of the United Nations, is also a valuable resource for data.

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