scholarly journals Estimation of Vulnerability and Risk to Meteorological Drought in Mexico

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Neri ◽  
Víctor Magaña
Keyword(s):  
Water Productivity ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Vulnerability Factors ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Hydraulic Infrastructure ◽  
Impact Data

Abstract Prolonged droughts severely affect the economic, social, and environmental sectors in Mexico. The interest in reducing the costs of drought is now focused on prevention by means of vulnerability reduction. The present study proposes a methodology to estimate vulnerability and risk to drought, considering the physical, economical, and social factors that make regions of Mexico prone to experiencing hydrological and agricultural droughts. Recognizing that there is no universally accepted way to describe vulnerability, the proposed method defines the object under study, the natural hazard, and vulnerability factors by means of indicators. The vulnerability factors are related to water infrastructure, the condition of aquifers or water reservoirs, the levels of wastewater treatment, water productivity in agriculture, hydraulic infrastructure, and water tariffs. A drought vulnerability model for each Hydrological Administrative Region (RHA) in Mexico is obtained by combining the vulnerability indicators. The product of vulnerability and hazard results in risk estimates that are compared with impact data to validate the approach. Information on agricultural or hydrological drought is used as impact data. The validation process is an important step in the methodology, since it allows examination of the causes of disasters by the vulnerability factors and leads to risk management strategies. It is found that although vulnerability to meteorological drought in the agricultural and hydrological sectors in Mexico has decreased in recent years, the drought risk is still high and results in severe economic losses, such as those registered in central and northern Mexico during the 2011–12 prolonged drought.

scholarly journals Perceiving and managing the 2018 & 2019 droughts in Europe: is there a need for macro-governance in Europe?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veit Blauhut ◽  
Claudia Teutschbein ◽  
Mathias N. Andersen ◽  
Manuela Brunner ◽  
Carmelo Cammalleri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
International Exchange ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
National Differences

<p>In recent years, the adverse effects of drought have been experienced and perceived more severely and frequently all over Europe. These impacts are a result of the drought hazard and the socio-economic and ecological vulnerability. Due to the heterogeneity of Europe’s hydro-climatology and its cultural, political, social and economic diversity , the socio-economic and ecological impacts vary not only with respect to the extent, duration and severity of the drought, but also with the characteristics of affected societies, economic sectors and ecosystems. </p><p>The lack  of understanding the spatio-temporal differences in the drivers of drought risk hinders the successful mitigation of future impacts, and the design of suitable reactive and proactive drought action plans. Therefore, this study describes the European drought events of 2018 and 2019 beyond the hazard. The hypothesis to be proven is that similar hazard conditions result in different impacts due to national and sub-national differences in drought vulnerability, perception and drought-risk management. Based on research in 35 European countries, comparable national datasets on drought management and perception are established. For each of these countries, a uniform questionnaire was distributed to water management-related stakeholders at different administrative levels. A major focus of the questions was the perception and impacts of the recent droughts and current management strategies on a national and sub-national scale. The results of the questionnaires are also compared to country-scale profiles of past drought events for different drought types, i.e. meteorological, soil moisture, hydrological and vegetation drought, which were established based on information derived from the European Drought Observatory indicator system.</p><p>The results highlight a large diversity in the national perception of drought as a natural hazard and its impacts; but also a different spatial extent of 2018/2019 drought events At the same time,  existing drought management strategies are shown to increase national and sub-national resilience. The study, therefore, calls for international exchange and mutual learning to improve national and international drought governance and management.</p>

scholarly journals Coping with poor water supply in peri-urban Bandung, Indonesia: towards a framework for understanding risks and aversion behaviours

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anindrya Nastiti ◽  
Barti Setiani Muntalif ◽  
Dwina Roosmini ◽  
Arief Sudradjat ◽  
S V Meijerink ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Shared Experiences ◽  
Actual Risk ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

This paper explores the daily risks of households with respect to dimensions of inadequate water access and supply (quality, quantity, continuity and affordability). We describe how perceptions of risk are shaped and how households seek to reduce possible health impacts and potential economic losses through aversion behaviours. To this end, households’ activities relating to water storage, treatment and usage, together with water source preference, were analysed using a qualitative approach. We developed a framework that describes actual risk, risk perceptions and aversion behaviours. Risk perceptions and the adoption of aversion behaviours of varying frequency and intensity are based on a complex interaction between personal and shared experiences that relate to water supply dimensions, socioeconomic characteristics, and social networking. Moreover, we discuss household risk management strategies and provide some recommendations aimed at improving future approaches to the study of aversion behaviours.

scholarly journals Evaluating drought risk in data-scarce contexts. The case of southern Angola

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 44-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Limones ◽  
Javier Marzo-Artigas ◽  
Marcus Wijnen ◽  
Aleix Serrat-Capdevila
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
History Of ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Structured Approach

Abstract This paper pursues a methodological objective, developing and validating a structured approach for the recognition of areas under the highest levels of drought risk, suitable for data-scarce environments. The approach is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in subsequent exercises. The research reviews the history of hydro-meteorological drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012. Also, it intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully comprehend the risk. A list and map of these areas at high risk are two of the main outputs of this work. The results demonstrate that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that was intensifying at the time of writing this paper, and that the majority of its impacts started immediately after the rainfall anomalies appeared. Last, the study confirms that the set of indicators used reveals different facets of vulnerability, leading to different drought vulnerability profiles in the south of Angola and, consequently, to several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts.

Economics of Insurance Against Natural Disaster Risks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Wouter Botzen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Disaster Insurance ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

Increasing natural disaster losses in the past decades and expectations that this trend will accelerate under climate change motivated the development of a branch of literature on the economics of natural disaster insurance. A starting point for assessing the implications of climate change for insurance and developing risk management strategies is understanding the factors underlying historical loss trends and the way that future risks will develop. Most studies have pointed toward socioeconomic developments as the main cause of historical trends in natural disaster risks. Moreover, evidence reveals that climate change has been a contributing factor, which is expected to grow in importance in the future. Several supply and demand side obstacles may prevent natural disaster insurance from optimally fulfilling its desirable function of offering financial protection at affordable premiums. Climate change is expected to further hamper the insurability of natural disaster risks, unless insurers and governments proactively respond to climate change, for example by linking insurance coverage with risk reduction activities. A branch of literature has developed about how the functioning of insurance should be improved to cope with climate change. This includes industry-level responses, reforms of insurance market structures, such as public–private natural disaster insurance provision, and recommendations for addressing behavioral biases in insurance demand and for stimulating risk reduction. In view of the rising economic losses of natural disasters, this field of study is likely to remain an active one.

scholarly journals Characteristics of drought vulnerability for maize in the eastern part of Northwest China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Wang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Vulnerability

<p>Based on disaster theory, combined with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and relative meteorological yield data, meteorological factors and social factors were comprehensively considered to assess the vulnerability of maize (Zea mays) to drought. The probability distribution curve for of the degree of meteorological drought and relative meteorological yield was obtained by using information distribution technology, using a two-dimensional normal information diffusion method to construct the vulnerability relationship between degree of meteorological drought and relative meteorological yield. This resulted in drought vulnerability curves for maize in the eastern part of Northwest China (Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi), and calculations of drought risk for maize in each province. The probability of moderate drought in Shaanxi was relatively high, followed by Gansu and Ningxia. The probability distribution of Gansu was more discrete. The probability of strong meteorological drought in Ningxia was high, followed by Shaanxi and Gansu. Probability distribution of relative meteorological yield for maize in Gansu Province was highly discrete, with thick tailings, large uncertainties, and more extreme values, which were strongly affected by meteorological conditions, followed by Shaanxi and Ningxia. When the degree of meteorological drought was low, the relative meteorological yield of maize increased within 10%. This is because mild drought stress can promote the adaptability of maize to drought and stimulate maize’s overcompensatory effect. With an increased degree of meteorological drought, the relative meteorological yield of maize gradually declined. When the degree of meteorological drought exceeded –2.2, maize was most vulnerable to drought in Shaanxi followed by Ningxia and Gansu. When meteorological drought was < –2.2, maize was most vulnerable to drought in Shaanxi followed by Gansu and Ningxia. Shaanxi had the highest maize drought risk, followed by Gansu and Ningxia. This research had a clear physical background and clear risk connotations. The results provide a data foundation and a theoretical basis for drought prevention and disaster reduction for maize in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals Meteorological Drought Events and Their Evolution from 1960 to 2015 Using the Daily SWAP Index in Chongqing, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1887
Author(s):  
Bo Liu ◽  
Yubing Liu ◽  
Wenpeng Wang ◽  
Chunlei Li
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Significant Linear Trend ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Meteorological droughts are natural disasters that have been linked to economic losses and casualties. Decision-makers need to understand the temporal and spatial variation of meteorological drought events at a daily to weekly scale to develop a more elaborate framework for drought risk management. The present study used the standardized weighted average of precipitation index (SWAP) as an indicator of meteorological droughts, computed from the daily precipitation dataset (1960–2015) of 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing, China. The multi-threshold run theory was applied to identify drought events. Variation of drought characteristics was estimated by the modified Sen’s trend test. The results suggested the following findings: (1) the onset, duration, and severity of drought events identified by the SWAP index are in good agreement with the real local records; (2) there was no significant linear trend and abrupt change in annual duration and severity of drought events, but the decadal variation was obvious. From a decadal perspective, the annual frequency, duration, and severity of drought events showed a steady decreasing trend before the 1990s, and then fluctuated upward; (3) the spatial variation of the duration and severity of ordinary drought events was quite inconsistent at different periods. The annual drought days and severity increased from 1960 to 2015 but decreased after 1990. From 1960 to 2015, the duration days and severity of persistent, long persistent, severe, and extreme drought events declined insignificantly in most parts of the middle and southeast regions but increased in the western and northeast regions. The drought situation in Chongqing shows a large range of variation and obvious spatial heterogeneity. The SWAP index is an effective tool to identify the evolution of daily scale meteorological drought events.

The management of risk in a dryland environment

2011 ◽  
pp. 13-21
Author(s):  
D.I. Gray ◽  
J.I. Reid ◽  
D.J. Horne
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Subterranean Clover ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Forage Crops ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Upside Risk

A group of 24 Hawke's Bay hill country farmers are working with service providers to improve the resilience of their farming systems. An important step in the process was to undertake an inventory of their risk management strategies. Farmers were interviewed about their farming systems and risk management strategies and the data was analysed using descriptive statistics. There was considerable variation in the strategies adopted by the farmers to cope with a dryland environment. Importantly, these strategies had to cope with three types of drought and also upside risk (better than expected conditions), and so flexibility was critical. Infra-structure was important in managing a dryland environment. Farmers chose between increased scale (increasing farm size) and geographic dispersion (owning a second property in another location) through to intensification (investing in subdivision, drainage, capital fertiliser, new pasture species). The study identified that there may be scope for further investment in infra-structural elements such as drainage, deeper rooting alternative pasture species and water harvesting, along with improved management of subterranean clover to improve flexibility. Many of the farmers used forage crops and idling capacity (reduced stocking rate) to improve flexibility; others argued that maintaining pasture quality and managing upside risk was a better strategy in a dryland environment. Supplementary feed was an important strategy for some farmers, but its use was limited by contour and machinery constraints. A surprisingly large proportion of farmers run breeding cows, a policy that is much less flexible than trading stock. However, several farmers had improved their flexibility by running a high proportion of trading cattle and buffer mobs of ewe hoggets and trade lambs. To manage market risk, the majority of farmers are selling a large proportion of their lambs prime. Similarly, cattle are either sold prime or store onto the grass market when prices are at a premium. However, market risk associated with the purchase of supplements and grazing was poorly managed.

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