scholarly journals Presidents, Assembly Dissolution, and the Electoral Performance of Prime Ministers

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 730-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petra Schleiter ◽  
Edward Morgan-Jones
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Electoral Performance

Many European presidents have extensive constitutional powers to affect the timing of early parliamentary elections, which enables them to influence when incumbent governments must face the electorate. This article examines whether presidents use their assembly dissolution powers for partisan benefit. To date, presidential activism in the electoral arena of parliamentary and semipresidential democracies remains poorly understood. We hypothesize that presidents use their powers to influence election calling for the advantage of their political allies in government. To test this argument, we use data on 190 elections in 18 European democracies. Our results suggest that presidents with significant dissolution powers are able to shape the electoral success of incumbents. Prime ministers whose governments are allied to such presidents realize a vote and seat share bonus of around 5%. These findings have implications for our understanding of presidential activism, strategic parliamentary dissolution, and electoral accountability.

All the prime minister’s glory? Leader effects and accountability of prime ministers in parliamentary elections

Politics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 444-459
Author(s):  
Jan Berz
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
German State ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Important Extension

Are prime ministers held accountable for their government’s performance? The personalisation of parliamentary elections and subsequent voting behaviour based on the personality of party leaders questions the accountability of elected governments. In this article, I analyse the confounding of prime ministers’ leader effects by voters’ evaluation of government performance to examine whether prime ministers are held accountable for the performance of their government. I use individual-level data from British, Danish, and German elections and a natural experiment at the German state level to show that voters hold prime ministers personally accountable. The findings constitute an important extension of electoral accountability and have implications for the study of personalisation and presidentialisation in parliamentary democracies.

The Troublesome “Paradox of Gender Quotas”: A Few Methodological Notes on the Margin of an Article by Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej A. Górecki
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Gender Quotas ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Paradoxical Effects ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Electoral Performance

Abstract In a recent article published in Politics & Gender, Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz (2019) study the effects of gender quotas on the electoral performance of female candidates in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) systems. On the empirical side, their study is a critical reanalysis of the Polish case, in particular the regularities demonstrated in a 2014 study that I coauthored. We argued there that at the micro level (candidate level), the effects of quotas were somewhat “paradoxical”: following the installation of quotas, women candidates tend to perform worse relative to their male counterparts than they did during the pre-quota period. Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz claim to demonstrate that those “paradoxical” effects are minor and thus practically negligible. In this note, I argue that their conclusion is largely a result of the particular methodological choices made by these authors. These choices seem unobvious, debatable, and potentially controversial. The note concludes that we need more reflection and debate on the methodological aspects of analyzing candidates’ electoral success in complex electoral systems, such as multidistrict OLPR. This would greatly facilitate future efforts aimed at an unequivocal examination of the contentious concepts such as the notion of “paradox of gender quotas.”

Crossing the left-right party divide? Understanding the electoral success of the Czech Pirate Party in the 2017 parliamentary elections

Politics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 510-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Maškarinec
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Spatial Perspective ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Right ◽  
Leftist Parties ◽  
Spatial Support

In the 2017 Czech parliamentary election, the Czech Pirate Party (Pirates) gained 10.79% of the votes – an unprecedented success, compared to most of the pirate parties across Europe. However, as their electoral gain varies widely across the Czech Republic’s territory, this article analyses all (more than 6000) Czech municipalities in the elections of 2010, 2013, and 2017 to explain this variation. Overall, the success of the Pirates was driven especially by obtaining much more support in larger municipalities with younger populations (although not only those aged 18–24 but also older ones), lower unemployment, higher turnout, and lower support for leftist parties. Thus, from a spatial perspective, the patterns of Pirate voting largely resembled long-term spatial support for Czech rightist parties and we can conclude that the Pirates made considerable inroads to regions which had historically been strongholds of the Civic Democratic Party, as the former main party of the right, but also strongholds of minor right-wing (‘liberal centre’) parties of the 1990s and early 2000s. Success of the Pirates thus was based especially on votes from municipalities located in more developed areas, where the Pirates received many more votes than in structurally disadvantaged regions.

scholarly journals Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Factors Influencing Public Perceptions of Current Party Popularity and Electoral Expectations

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 458-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zerback ◽  
Carsten Reinemann ◽  
Angela Nienierza
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Current Opinion ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Media Slant ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Public Opinion Perception

This study analyzes how perceptions of the popularity of political parties (i.e., the current opinion climate) and expectations about parties’ future electoral performance (i.e., the future opinion climate) are formed. Theoretically, the paper integrates research on the sources of public opinion perception and empirically draws on a representative survey carried out before the 2013 German federal election. We show that the perceived media slant and opinions perceived in one’s personal surroundings are closely related to perceptions of party popularity, whereas individual recall of poll results and personal opinions about the parties are not. However, poll results are shown to be the single most important predictor of expectations about the parties’ future electoral success.

Dalit Party Performance and Bloc Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 85-120
Author(s):  
Amit Ahuja
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Electoral Mobilization ◽  
Party Vote Shares ◽  
Electoral Performance

This chapter outlines the electoral performance of Dalit ethnic parties. In non-movement states, Dalit ethnic party vote shares have been higher, and Dalits have won more seats in state assembly and parliamentary elections than Dalit ethnic parties in movement states. The chapter process traces Dalit electoral mobilization by ethnic and multiethnic parties across the two sets of states. It proceeds to show that Dalits’ ethnic party performance is explained by Dalits’ attitudes toward bloc voting and, that importantly, voters’ attitudes vary significantly across movement and non-movement states. Dalits in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are far less inclined to vote with members of their caste than Dalits in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Caste and Cultural Icons

2019 ◽  
pp. 218-241
Author(s):  
R. Thirunavukkarasu
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
The State ◽  
Modus Operandi ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Electoral Performance

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may be an insignificant entity in the electoral arena of Tamil Nadu as the party won only one seat in the 2014 parliamentary elections. However, its efforts to expand its support base in the state where ideologically hostile political dispensations have near hegemonic presence demand a thorough scrutiny. BJP’s endeavours to expand by vernacularizing itself are arguably met with resistance, yet the party’s desperation to project itself as a Tamilized Hindutva party must be dissected. While tracing the genealogy of the BJP’s electoral performance and its modus operandi to expand its support base, this chapter elaborates a two-way process of ‘vernacularization’ and ‘pan-Indianization’.

The Electoral System, the Party System and Accountability in Parliamentary Government

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 744-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTOPHER KAM ◽  
ANTHONY M. BERTELLI ◽  
ALEXANDER HELD
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Party System ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Government

Electoral accountability requires that voters have the ability to constrain the incumbent government’s policy-making power. We express the necessary conditions for this claim as an accountability identity in which the electoral system and the party system interact to shape the accountability of parliamentary governments. Data from 400 parliamentary elections between 1948 and 2012 show that electoral accountability is contingent on the party system’s bipolarity, for example, with parties arrayed in two distinct blocs. Proportional electoral systems achieve accountability as well as majoritarian ones when bipolarity is strong but not when it is weak. This is because bipolarity decreases the number of connected coalitions that incumbent parties can join to preserve their policy-making power. Our results underscore the limitations that party systems place on electoral reform and the benefits that bipolarity offers for clarifying voters’ choices and intensifying electoral competition.

scholarly journals A Matter of Supply and Demand: The Electoral Performance of Populist Parties in Three European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn van Kessel
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Comparative Studies ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Electoral Performance

This article assesses the electoral performance of populist parties in three European countries: the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom. In explaining the electoral performance of the populist parties in the three countries, the article considers the agency of political parties in particular. More specifically, it examines the responsiveness of established parties and the credibility of the populist parties. Whereas the agency of populist parties, or other radical outsiders, has often been overlooked in previous comparative studies, this article argues that the credibility of the populist parties themselves plays a crucial role in understanding their electoral success and failure.

The Rise and Fall of a Populist Contender in Albania

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Blerjana Bino
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Southeastern Europe ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Secondary Resources ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Public ◽  
Electoral Performance

In light of populism surging in Southeastern Europe, this paper investigates the rise and fall of the Red and Black Alliance (rba), a populist political party in Albania with hard-line nationalism and anti-establishment feelings at its core. The paper investigates the initial breakthrough and the subsequent non-success of the rba by analysing the specific contextual settings for the emergence of populist parties in Albania, the party’s political discourse and its electoral performance in the general parliamentary elections of 2013. By adopting a qualitative methodology of discourse analysis and review of secondary resources, this paper argues that the insignificant electoral results of the rba in the general parliamentary elections in 2013 were determined by a group of interrelated supply and demand factors as well as institutional and contextual factors, with party credibility and the availability of the public being the two most important explanatory variables.

African Phoenix? Explaining the Electoral Performance of the Formerly Dominant Parties in Africa

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Ishiyama ◽  
John James Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Liberalization ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Environmental Shocks ◽  
Electoral Performance

In this article we address the question: what explains the varying degrees of success of the formerly dominant political parties in African oneparty states following ‘democratic’ transition? Indeed, political liberalization and democratization pose strong environmental shocks to formerly dominant parties and radically change the environment in which these parties exist. Such parties are faced with great pressures to adapt to their new environment. Why are some more successful than others? To address this question, we examine the evidence from 22 sub-Saharan African countries over 53 legislative elections from 1990 to 2003. We find that the legacies of different previous regimes, party incumbency and (to some extent) the degree of ethnolinguistic fractionalization, impact on the relative electoral success of the formerly dominant parties.

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