Cultures of Violence and Acts of Terror

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Mullins ◽  
Joseph K. Young

Although uniquely positioned to provide insight into the nature and dynamics of terrorism, overall the field of criminology has seen few empirically focused analyses of this form of political violence. This article seeks to add to the understanding of terror through an exploration of how general levels of violence within a given society influence the probability of political dissidents within that society resorting to terror as a form of political action. Drawing on the legitimation–habituation thesis, the authors explore whether general levels of legitimate and illegitimate violence within a society predict terrorist violence (both internal and external in direction) within that society. To do so, the authors use zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to perform time series cross-sectional analysis on predictors of terrorist events from the Global Terrorism Database. The authors find support for their core hypothesis and provide a discussion of the implications for the findings within their data and for future criminological research on terrorism.

Journalism ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 146488491986028
Author(s):  
Maria Armoudian ◽  
Barry Milne

Using negative binomial regression, we tested the relationships between political violence and media messages of blame across five distinct publications in Northern Ireland, publications that varied by ideology/identity and structure over a period of 4.5 years during the peace process. While controlling for previous violence, we found reciprocal relationships, suggesting that violent acts correlated with a rise in blame in mass media and that blame in some mass media correlated with escalating violence in what appears to be a cycle. Not surprisingly, violent acts also led to subsequent violent acts.


2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Vargas-Ferreira ◽  
Marco Aurelio Peres ◽  
Samuel Carvalho Dumith ◽  
William Murray Thomson ◽  
Flávio Fernando Demarco

Objective: This study estimated the prevalence, extent, buccal distribution and associated factors involving enamel defects in Brazilian schoolchildren. Study design: A cross-sectional study using a multistage cluster random sample of 1,206 8–12-year-old Brazilian schoolchildren was carried out in Pelotas, Brazil. The prevalence of enamel defects in the permanent dentition was determined using the modified Developmental Defects of Enamel index (DDE). Sociodemographic and health data were collected from their mothers using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Poisson regression modelling for DDE prevalence and negative binomial regression modelling for the extent of DDE. Results: The prevalence of any enamel defects was 64.0% (95% Confidence Interval: 61.4, 67.0); the main types were diffuse opacities (35.0%), demarcated opacities (29.5%) and hypoplasia (3.7%). In general, older children had a lower prevalence and extent of enamel defects than their counterparts (p<0.001). There were no other significant associations. Conclusion: Enamel defects are common, especially among younger children, but the role of pre-, peri- and postnatal exposures remains unclear.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sae Takada ◽  
Kristen Choi ◽  
Shaw Natsui ◽  
Altaf Saadi ◽  
Liza Buchbinder ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods: Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms.Results: Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001).Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastase Tchicaya ◽  
Nathalie Lorentz ◽  
Hichem Omrani ◽  
Gaetan de Lanchy ◽  
Kristell Leduc

Abstract Background The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and was declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. This study aimed to assess the effects of temperature and long-term exposure to air pollution on the COVID-19 mortality rate at the sub-national level in France. Methods This cross-sectional study considered different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic from May to December 2020. It included 96 departments (or NUTS 3) in mainland France. Data on long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5), annual mean temperature, health services, health risk, and socio-spatial factors were used as covariates in negative binomial regression analysis to assess their influence on the COVID-19 mortality rate. All data were obtained from open-access sources. Results The cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate by department increased during the study period in metropolitan France—from 19.8/100,000 inhabitants (standard deviation (SD): 20.1) on 1 May 2020, to 65.4/100,000 inhabitants (SD: 39.4) on 31 December 2020. The rate was the highest in the departments where the annual average of long-term exposure to PM2.5 was high. The negative binomial regression models showed that a 1 μg/m3 increase in the annual average PM2.5 concentration was associated with a statistically significant increase in the COVID-19 mortality rate, corresponding to 24.4%, 25.8%, 26.4%, 26.7%, 27.1%, 25.8%, and 15.1% in May, June, July, August, September, October, and November, respectively. This association was no longer significant on 1 and 31 December 2020. The association between temperature and the COVID-19 mortality rate was only significant on 1 November, 1 December, and 31 December 2020. An increase of 1 °C in the average temperature was associated with a decrease in the COVID-19-mortality rate, corresponding to 9.7%, 13.3%, and 14.5% on 1 November, 1 December, and 31 December 2020, respectively. Conclusion This study found significant associations between the COVID-19 mortality rate and long-term exposure to air pollution and temperature. However, these associations tended to decrease with the persistence of the pandemic and massive spread of the disease across the entire country.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sae Takada ◽  
Kristen Choi ◽  
Shaw Natsui ◽  
Altaf Saadi ◽  
Liza Buchbinder ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods : Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms. Results : Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001). Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Walter Scott ◽  
Cheryl Lee Maxson

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine characteristics of gang organization in youth correctional facilities as reported by youth and staff as well as to analyze the relationship between institutional violence and level of gang organization. Design/methodology/approach – The data were collected through interviews with staff and youth in correctional facilities. Gang organization level averages are compared across youth and official perspectives, and the variability of responses among youth is also examined. Negative binomial regression models are conducted to determine the association between perceived level of gang organization and officially recorded violent behavior, both prior to and subsequent to the interview. Findings – Perceptions of institutional gang organization vary notably depending on who is reporting. In contrast with prior studies of street gangs, controlling for youth demographics and offense characteristics, the authors find no significant relationship between gang organization and violence. Research limitations/implications – The sample size is small and the data are cross-sectional. Future studies will need to be conducted in order to confirm these findings, as they contradict prior studies. The analysis of street gang organization may need to be approached differently by scholars. Originality/value – Research has not been conducted on the organizational structure of gangs in youth correctional facilities or its relationship to institutional violence.


2020 ◽  
pp. annrheumdis-2020-218282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryant R England ◽  
Punyasha Roul ◽  
Yangyuna Yang ◽  
Harlan Sayles ◽  
Fang Yu ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo compare the onset and trajectory of multimorbidity between individuals with and without rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsA matched, retrospective cohort study was completed in a large, US commercial insurance database (MarketScan) from 2006 to 2015. Using validated algorithms, patients with RA (overall and incident) were age-matched and sex-matched to patients without RA. Diagnostic codes for 44 preidentified chronic conditions were selected to determine the presence (≥2 conditions) and burden (count) of multimorbidity. Cross-sectional comparisons were completed using the overall RA cohort and conditional logistic and negative binomial regression models. Trajectories of multimorbidity were assessed within the incident RA subcohort using generalised estimating equations.ResultsThe overall cohort (n=277 782) and incident subcohort (n=61 124) were female predominant (76.5%, 74.1%) with a mean age of 55.6 years and 54.5 years, respectively. The cross-sectional prevalence (OR 2.29, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.34) and burden (ratio of conditions 1.68, 95% CI 1.66 to 1.70) of multimorbidity were significantly higher in RA than non-RA in the overall cohort. Within the incident RA cohort, patients with RA had more chronic conditions than non-RA (β 1.13, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.17), and the rate of accruing chronic conditions was significantly higher in RA compared with non-RA (RA × follow-up year, β 0.21, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.21, p<0.001). Results were similar when including the pre-RA period and in several sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsMultimorbidity is highly prevalent in RA and progresses more rapidly in patients with RA than in patients without RA during and immediately following RA onset. Therefore, multimorbidity should be aggressively identified and targeted early in the RA disease course.


2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 733-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Nadanovsky ◽  
Roger Keller Celeste ◽  
Margo Wilson ◽  
Martin Daly

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.


2019 ◽  
Vol 188 (7) ◽  
pp. 1319-1327
Author(s):  
Alexis Robert ◽  
W John Edmunds ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo ◽  
Pierre-Stéphane Gsell ◽  
...  

Abstract Understanding risk factors for Ebola transmission is key for effective prediction and design of interventions. We used data on 860 cases in 129 chains of transmission from the latter half of the 2013–2016 Ebola epidemic in Guinea. Using negative binomial regression, we determined characteristics associated with the number of secondary cases resulting from each infected individual. We found that attending an Ebola treatment unit was associated with a 38% decrease in secondary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38, 0.99) among individuals that did not survive. Unsafe burial was associated with a higher number of secondary cases (IRR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.02). The average number of secondary cases was higher for the first generation of a transmission chain (mean = 1.77) compared with subsequent generations (mean = 0.70). Children were least likely to transmit (IRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.57) compared with adults, whereas older adults were associated with higher numbers of secondary cases. Men were less likely to transmit than women (IRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.93). This detailed surveillance data set provided an invaluable insight into transmission routes and risks. Our analysis highlights the key role that age, receiving treatment, and safe burial played in the spread of EVD.


Author(s):  
Gulzar H. Shah ◽  
Ansar Ali Faraz ◽  
Hina Khan ◽  
Kristie C. Waterfield

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has affected the social determinants of health, worsening health inequities and deteriorating healthcare capacities around the globe. The objective of this study is to investigate the COVID-19 prevention behaviors within the framework of the Health Belief Model in the city of Depalpur in the Okara District of Pakistan in May 2020. Using an observational, cross-sectional, and quantitative study design, a face-to-face field survey was conducted during the epidemic of COVID-19 in district Okara, Pakistan. A sample of 500 adults was selected from the city of Depalpur the in Okara district of Pakistan, using a two-stage sampling design with cluster sampling in stage one and systematic random sampling at stage two. A COVID-19 prevention behavior scale was computed based on twelve dichotomous items. Descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and negative binomial regression analyses were performed. The most common prevention behavior among study participants was avoiding going for walks in the parks (81.0%), followed by not leaving home during the lockdown (72.6%), and washing hands every day with soap and water for 20 s after going out of their home (64.0%). Fewer people exhibited prevention behaviors such as social distancing (e.g., staying at least six feet away from other people) which in the EU was recommended to be a minimum of 1.5–2 m (44.4%) and following all of the basic protective measures (e.g., hand washing, use of a face covering in public, social distancing) in order to protect against COVID-19 (33.0%). The results from the negative binomial regression analysis showed that after controlling for the other HBM constructs and sociodemographic factors, only the perceived benefits of preventative actions showed significant association with the prevention behavior scale (IRR, 1.16; CI, 1.061–1.276; p < 0.001). The study findings show that public health interventions attempting to control the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan may want to affect a change in people’s perceived benefits of preventative actions through mass awareness-raising campaigns.


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