Erratum

ILR Review ◽  
1981 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-595
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
Previous Issue ◽  
Strike Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

The article, “Bargaining Theory, Inflation, and Cyclical Strike Activity,” by Bruce E. Kaufman, which appeared in the previous issue of the Review (Vol.34, No. 3, April 1981) contained a printer's error. The second full sentence in the second column on page 345 should have read as follows: “Thus our model predicts that including the unemployment rate will cause the peak of the strike cycle to shift forward in time, relative to what it would have been on the basis of inflation alone, while at the trough of the business cycle both inflation and unemployment will work to cause the low point in strikes to follow that of the business cycle.”

Notes from the Editors, February 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. c2-64
Author(s):  
The Editors
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Labor Statistics ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics ◽  
The U.S ◽  
New Jobs

buy this issue According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy is experiencing an unemployment rate that is at a fifty-year low. Yet, wage growth continues to be weak, with continuing wage stagnation even at the peak of the business cycle. A major and largely undertheorized reason for the sluggish wages in a period of seeming full employment is to be found in the fact that the new jobs being created by the economy do not measure up to those of the past in terms of weekly wages and hours, or in the degree to which they support households or even individuals.

New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment

1986 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Romer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Product ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Business Cycle

The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correlation properities of the new macroeconomic series and investigates the Okun's Law relationship between unemployment and GNP, concluding with an evaluation of the assumptions underlying the old and new data.

scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Market Indicator

Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.

scholarly journals Measuring What Employers Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle: A New Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 36-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro S Martins ◽  
Gary Solon ◽  
Jonathan P Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Cyclical Variation ◽  
Wage Cyclicality ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Newly Hired

Rigidity in real hiring wages plays a crucial role in some recent macroeconomic models. But are hiring wages really so noncyclical? We propose using employer/employee longitudinal data to track the cyclical variation in the wages paid to workers newly hired into specific entry jobs. Illustrating the methodology with 1982–2008 data from the Portuguese census of employers, we find real entry wages were about 1.8 percent higher when the unemployment rate was 1 percentage point lower. Like most recent evidence on other aspects of wage cyclicality, our results suggest that the cyclical elasticity of wages is similar to that of employment. (JEL E24, E32, J31, J64)

scholarly journals The Business Cycle, Inflation, and Unemployment Rate Nexus: An Empirical Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Tito Belchior Silva Moreira ◽  
Michel Constantino ◽  
George Henrique de Moura Cunha ◽  
Paulo Roberto Pires de Sousa ◽  
Luciano Balbino dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
American Economy

This paper revisits the main assumption regarding the original Phillips curve regarding the American economy, in which one assumes that the unemployment rate causes an inflation rate. In this context, this paper aims to evaluate if the variance of the inflation rate affects the unemployment rate and, besides, if there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Based on quarterly time series from 1959:04 to 2019:04 the empirical results show, via OLS and GMM methods, that the monetary policy affects the business cycle, and, in turn, the business cycle impacts the unemployment rate. Hence, the monetary policy affects indirectly the unemployment rate via the business cycle. On the other hand, the variance of the inflation rate contributes to an increase in the unemployment rate, consequently, there isn’t a trade-off between the unemployment rate and the variance of the inflation rate. Moreover, there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. This is the contribution of this paper. At last, based on the Phillips curve, one expects that the unemployment rate causes the inflation rate. However, the Granger causality tests display a two-way causality relation between both variables.

scholarly journals Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anabela Carneiro ◽  
Paulo Guimarães ◽  
Pedro Portugal
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Labor Market Conditions ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Job Title ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Newly Hired

Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal over the 1986–2007 period, this study analyzes the wage responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers within the same firm. Accounting for worker, firm, and job title heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are more procyclical than wages of stayers. A one point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired workers within a given firm-job title by around 2.7 percent and by 2.2 percent for stayers within the same firm-job title. Finally, the results reveal a one-for-one wage response to changes in labor productivity. (JEL: E24, E32, J64)

The Unemployment Rate and the Business Cycle in Britain: An Aggregate and Regional Analysis

1994 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 591-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Jones ◽  
Neil Manning ◽  
Maxwell Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
The Business Cycle

Notes from the Editors, March 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. c2-64
Author(s):  
The Editors
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Labor Statistics ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics ◽  
The U.S ◽  
New Jobs

buy this issue According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy is experiencing an unemployment rate that is at a fifty-year low. Yet, wage growth continues to be weak, with continuing wage stagnation even at the peak of the business cycle. A major and largely undertheorized reason for the sluggish wages in a period of seeming full employment is to be found in the fact that the new jobs being created by the economy do not measure up to those of the past in terms of weekly wages and hours, or in the degree to which they support households or even individuals.

BUSINESS CYCLE EFFECTS ON CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHILLING EFFECT OF RECESSION

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 257-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTHEW E. KAHN ◽  
MATTHEW J. KOTCHEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Search Terms ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Different Sources

This paper uses two different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle — measured with unemployment rates — and public concern about climate change. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate decreases Google searches for "global warming" and increases searches for "unemployment," and that the effect differs according to a state's political ideology. From national surveys, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate is associated with a decrease in the probability that residents think global warming is happening and reduced support for the U.S. to target policies intended to mitigate climate change. We also examine how socio-demographic characteristics affect opinions about whether climate change is happening and whether government should take action. Beyond providing the first empirical estimates of macroeconomic effects on concern about climate change, we discuss the results in terms of the potential impact on environmental policy and understanding the full cost of recessions.

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