The impact of cyber technologies on the modern societies is significant. States have to adapt to the changed security environment to be able to ensure the security and stability for their territories and populations. Deterrence, which usually goes hand in hand with defence, is about preventing conflicts by dissuading potential aggressors to attack. With regard to cyber, the rules of deterrence change when compared to traditional deterrence, because of the special characteristics of the cyberspace. What is needed is new way of thinking about deterrence and a more comprehensive approach to it.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) approach to deterrence is resting upon the appropriate mix of conventional, nuclear and missile defence capabilities. However, following the 2014 Enhanced NATO Cyber Defence Policy, NATO is de facto already pursuing certain elements of cyber deterrence based on strong defence, declaratory policy and responsive measures. Responsive measures are not NATO offensive cyber capabilities, but the possibility of a collective defence response to a cyber attack, which implies a response with all available means. The article is providing an insight into NATO’s existing cyber defence policy and possible future developments of cyber deterrence at the level of the Alliance.
Vpliv kibernetske tehnologije na sodobno družbo je pomemben. Države se morajo prilagoditi spremenjenemu varnostnemu okolju, da bi bile zmožne zagotoviti varnost in stabilnost svojih ozemelj ter prebivalstva. Odvračanje, ki gre po navadi z roko v roki z obrambo, pomeni preprečevanje spopadov z odvračanjem napada morebitnih agresorjev. V kibernetiki so pravila drugačna kot pri tradicionalnem odvračanju zaradi posebnih značilnosti kibernetskega okolja. Zato sta nujna nova miselnost in bolj celosten pristop k odvračanju.
Pristop Nata k odvračanju temelji na ustrezni mešanici konvencionalnih, jedrskih in raketnih zmogljivosti. Kljub temu pa po sprejemu izboljšane politike o kibernetski obrambi (Enhanced NATO Cyber Defence Policy) iz leta 2014 Nato v resnici izvaja nekatere elemente kibernetskega odvračanja, ki temeljijo na močni obrambi, deklaratorni politiki in odzivnih ukrepih. Odzivni ukrepi ne pomenijo Natovih ofenzivnih kibernetskih zmogljivosti, temveč možnost za odzivanje kolektivne obrambe na kibernetski napad, pri čemer se uporabijo vsa sredstva, ki so na voljo. V članku so predstavljeni trenutna Natova kibernetska politika in mogoči prihodnji dogodki, povezani s kibernetskim odvračanjem na ravni zavezništva.