scholarly journals Organized violence, 1989–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Therése Pettersson ◽  
Magnus Öberg
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The Past ◽  
Organized Violence ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
General Decline ◽  
Data Program ◽  
High Level

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

scholarly journals Organized violence, 1989–2018 and peace agreements

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Therése Pettersson ◽  
Stina Högbladh ◽  
Magnus Öberg
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Organized Violence ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
General Decline ◽  
The World ◽  
Data Program ◽  
High Level ◽  
Similar Peak

This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.

Re-enacting the international order, or: why the Syrian state did not disappear

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Janis Grzybowski
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Order ◽  
The State ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
New States ◽  
Regime Support ◽  
Rare Opportunity ◽  
State Form

Abstract At the height of the Syrian civil war, many observers argued that the Syrian state was collapsing, fragmenting, or dissolving. Yet, it never actually vanished. Revisiting the rising challenges to the Syrian state since 2011 – from internal collapse through external fragmentation to its looming dissolution by the ‘Islamic State’ – provides a rare opportunity to investigate the re-enactment of both statehood and international order in crisis. Indeed, what distinguishes the challenges posed to Syria, and Iraq, from others in the region and beyond is that their potential dissolution was regarded as a threat not merely to a – despised – dictatorial regime, or a particular state, but to the state-based international order itself. Regimes fall and states ‘collapse’ internally or are replaced by new states, but the international order is fundamentally questioned only where the territorially delineated state form is contested by an alternative. The article argues that the Syrian state survived not simply due to its legal sovereignty or foreign regime support, but also because states that backed the rebellion, fearing the vanishing of the Syrian nation-state in a transnational jihadist ‘caliphate’, came to prefer its persistence under Assad. The re-enactment of states and of the international order are thus ultimately linked.

scholarly journals SYRIAN CIVIL WAR: A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
DR. RANI ERUM
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The People ◽  
Significant Effort

The Syrian crisis is one of the most extensive issue of Middle East. The enduring fight among Baathist regime and factions of rebellion groups created a humanitarian dilemma in the country. Since 2011 the people of Syria are in complete despair, every dawn increases the intensity of their misery. The high amount of civilian deaths and destruction of infrastructure turned the country in to complete turmoil. Every day thousands of Syrian entre in Greece and Turkey for refuge and security, many among them died during this process which regularly shows on television screens but regional and internal actors are looking completely disable to do any significant effort to settle the conflicts among opponents of crisis. Therefore, the peace prospects are not very hopeful because the ongoing clashes frequently sabotage every effort between the combatants. This study design to discuss the reasons, consequences and effects of civil war on Syrians and enlightened the direct and indirect role of regional and Western powers in the past seven years.

scholarly journals Shabbiha: Paramilitary groups, mass violence and social polarization in Homs

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-79
Author(s):  
Uğur Ümit Üngör
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
National Defense ◽  
Mass Violence ◽  
Video Clips ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Social Polarization ◽  
Research Interviews ◽  
The City

Within a year, the Syrian uprising in March 2011 developed into a civil war that gradually escalated and within 9 years killed over half a million people, displaced half the country’s prewar population, devastated the economy, and destabilized the entire region, and even the world. The Syrian civil war split the country into four factions that were continuously at war with each other with intermittent, unstable ceasefires: the Assad regime, the various rebel groups, the Kurds, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The Assad regime was responsible for the bulk of the violence against civilians, qualitatively and quantitatively. Its violent crackdown on the mass protests in Syria became more extensive and intensive throughout the first years of the conflict. A key aspect of the regime’s repression against the population was its use of paramilitary forces, the so-called “ Shabbiha,” a catch-all category for irregular, pro-government militias dressed in (semi-)civilian gear and linked organically to the regime. From 2012 onward, they gradually became formalized, first in the Popular Committees (اللجان الشعبيه), and then in the National Defense Forces (قوات الدفاع الوطني) (NDF). Their violence strongly polarized sectarian relations in Syria, and therefore the Shabbiha are vital to understanding the broader conflict. This article will look at the mobilization and violence of the Shabbiha in the city of Homs. It is based on a combination of sources including ethnographic research, interviews with Shabbiha members, social media content, video clips, leaked documents, and testimonies of victims and other eye witnesses.

Advocacy Coalitions and Foreign Policy Change: Understanding US Responses to the Syrian Civil War

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S Lantis
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Advocacy Coalitions ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Abstract Insights from the public policy advocacy coalition framework (ACF) may offer richer explanations of the scope and timing of US foreign policy changes toward the Syrian civil war (2011–present) than traditional approaches in foreign policy analysis (FPA). This article surveys the existing FPA literature and then probes the plausibility of a new ACF model of change through case studies of the reluctant engagement of the United States in Syria. Cases shed light on how, despite pronouncements of restraint by Presidents Obama and Trump, the government has armed and trained rebel fighters, deployed thousands of troops to the country, conducted airstrikes against the Islamic State, and moved to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region. This study helps draw connections between competition among rival advocacy coalitions and strategic drift in US foreign policy, including patterns of change and “purposive non-change.” The article concludes with a discussion of the added value of the ACF model and details its promise for application in other comparative cross-national contexts.

The Politics of Tribalization in Syria

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-506
Author(s):  
Haian Dukhan
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
International Media ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Everyday ◽  
Tribal Affiliation

International media outlets have covered the news of Syrian tribes since the beginning of the protest movement that erupted in the country in 2011. This started with the “Friday of Tribes,” when Syrian tribes participating in protests against the Syrian regime in the Syrian city of Dar‘a began chanting “faz‘a” (chanting for support), which meant that they were seeking solidarity from other tribes for defense against the regime's aggression. As the Syrian uprising turned into a civil war that involved many players, some media outlets focused on the scenes of tribal leaders pledging allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), or of others being summoned to Geneva, Switzerland, to hold talks with Western powers about the possibility of mobilizing against ISIS militants. One could only wonder exactly why tribal loyalties continued to play such a significant role in the everyday events of the Syrian civil war when many civil society advocates had argued that tribal affiliation in Syria had diminished.

Near Eastern archaeology and the Arab Spring: avoiding the ostrich effect

Antiquity ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 88 (340) ◽  
pp. 639-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Danti
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Near Eastern ◽  
Rural Village ◽  
The Past ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Future ◽  
Major Turning Point ◽  
The Arab Spring

As an American archaeologist who has worked in Syria, living in a rural village in Raqqa Province off and on for decades, I am frequently asked: did you see it coming? Were there early signs of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war? The answer is both yes and no. In retrospect, the signs were there, but foreign archaeologists did not always identify them. More often we simply chose to ignore them. Regardless, we have come to many important realisations. Foremost, Near Eastern archaeology has reached a major turning point, which raises a more pressing question: what now? Our answers will profoundly shape the future of our field. As archetypal students of history, we must learn from the lessons of the past and act. Playing the part of the metaphorical ostrich and burying our heads in the sand would be far easier, perhaps even customary, but this cannot be our course. A strong and engaged field is needed now more than ever—my primary intent here is to dissect what this means.

The Crumbling of Armies in Contemporary Syria

Desertion ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 163-188
Author(s):  
Théodore McLauchlin
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Syrian Civil War

This chapter talks about the Syrian Civil War that has been ongoing since 2011, comparing the regime's Syrian Arab Army, the Free Syrian Army umbrella, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), and the Kurdish People's and Women's Protection Units. It discusses how the forces of the Syrian Civil War was able to maintain their cohesion like their counterparts in Spain's militias that grew out of long-standing armed networks and maintained tight standards for recruitment. It also uses the Syrian case to demonstrate the ambiguous effects of threats of punishment to keep soldiers fighting. The chapter argues that problems of fighting desertion while fighting a civil war are neither particularly new nor particularly old. It reframes an important debate about why soldiers keep on fighting against the odds.

War against Islamic State to last years in Iraq, Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Us ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Significance Zamili's remarks appear to signal Iraqi government concerns that the US-led international air campaign against the group is not going well. The effectiveness of airstrikes has been constrained by poor intelligence and strict rules of engagement; efforts to support local ground forces are at a standstill; and Iraqi offensive operations have virtually ground to a halt. Impacts Russia's strong intervention into Syria will not break the stalemate in either the fight against ISG or the Syrian civil war. The huge costs of a protracted campaign against ISG will further weaken Iraq's medium-term fiscal outlook. ISG's survival will limit Syrian Kurdish ambitions to establish a contiguous territory across northern Syria. It will also contain Syrian rebel forces, ensuring that the stalemate in the Syrian civil war continues. Continued flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria will ensure international terrorism threat persist over the long term.

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