Chapter I. The Home Economy

1979 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 7-20

In this review our forecast is extended by a further complete year to the end of 1981. Our forecast for 1980 is in several respects rather more pessimistic than we suggested in August, but the addition of the forecast for 1981 shows that some improvement in real GDP and real disposable income is then expected. Unemployment on the other hand continues to increase but is now likely to be rather lower during 1980 than had previously been thought. As a contrast, inflation in consumer prices is forecast at a rather higher level for 1980, falling only by 1981 to the level previously anticipated for 1980. The current account balance is considerably worsened, not just for 1980 and 1981 but also for the current year, largely as a result of the higher level of imports following their rapid increase in the first two quarters of the year. The borrowing requirement remains very close to our previous calculation and is expected to fall slightly in 1981-2.

1993 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.E. Winner

This paper demonstrates that the traditional theory, that the current account balance and the budget balance are positively related, does not uphold when applied to Australian data. On the other hand, Australian data seems to indicate that Ricardian Equivalence Theorem better explains the movements in the economy.


2020 ◽  
pp. 94-102
Author(s):  
NANA ASLAMAZISHVILI

So far, much has been written and discussed about the rapid variability and complex predictability of the global economy, and different countries have more or less successfully dealt with the challenges they face. However, the global threat posed by the world in the form of COVID-19 puts the methods and approaches to combating economic crises completely upside down. What should be the strategy and tactics of the countries to start recovering the economies as quickly as possible under such kind of circumstances? In such a situation, it should be the best way to “hurry up slowly,” that is, to be thoroughly consistent so that short-term emergency measures do not harm long-term goals. Given the conditions of coronomics and the lessons the world has learned from it at this stage, recovery of the economics, in the earlier sense of the term, should be completely ineffective. We are accustomed to the fact that in the post-crisis period, economic recovery in a sense implies a more or less back-off to what was before the crisis. Given that this time a completely different “crisis” is occurring, essential structural changes and important transformations in many areas of the economy are needed to overcome its consequences. One of the clear lessons that must to be learned from Coronomics is that returning to what was already before would not be the right course of action for the economies focused on the sustainable development. Georgia is a small open economy, and the fate of such economies has already been decided in advance: they will not be able to influence the global economy, and their efforts must be directed to protect themselves from the negative effects of the ongoing processes in the world. What are the priorities for such countries on this path if traditional sectors are vulnerable to certain types of crises and fail to cope with the task of generating revenue in extreme situations that are necessary, on the one hand, to balance their demands and, on the other hand, to meet external obligations? This is the reality that Georgia has faced in the face of coronomics. How did the Georgian economy meet the shock of COVID-19? 2019 will be a turning point in many years for assessing economic outcomes, not just in Georgia. What are the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and do they give a positive signal according to the data of this period? This article deals with the external economic aspects of these indicators. The current account deficit as of 2019 was $ 900.5 million, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product. Historically, this is the best indicator in the history of independent Georgia. On the other hand, historically, the country›s external liabilities, which amount to $ 34.5 billion, are 1.9 times higher than Gross Domestic Product and 3.2 times higher than the country›s foreign financial assets; The country›s external debt was 1.1 times higher than GDP at the end of 2019, while imports accounted for 40.8 percent of total consumption (intermediate and final). Thus, Georgia›s positioning on the challenges of COVID-19 is completely unfavorable and critical. This article aims to discuss the main aspects of the country›s foreign sector accounts, the profitable and deficient articles of the balance of payments that traditionally determine the state of the current account, and how vulnerable these items are to external factors and shocks. The focus on this issue is to explore the ways in which it is possible to reduce the degree of dependence of the country›s economy on foreign shocks and achieve external economic stability. However, it should be noted that the format of the article is not sufficient for in-depth discussion of a number of causeand-effect issues, for the evaluation of perspectives, and for deeper and more substantiated reasoning. Therefore, it can be said that the paper forms the main postulates on the issues under consideration, which together and each of them deserves in-depth research, but not in terms of fragmentary time and content, but in a complex and permanent mode.


1970 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 4-20

The national accounts now published for the fourth quarter of 1969 confirm the estimate given in February's Review that output then was moving ahead a little faster, accelerating the recovery which had followed the first quarter's temporary drop in activity. Each of the three available GDP measures agrees in indicating this movement, although as usual, there is some difference as to the exact amount. As expected, the momentum of export growth slackened, but not by as much as anticipated; on the other hand imports proved to have risen quite strongly against our assumption of some fall and the level of investment proved rather lower than expected. However, perhaps the most important unexpected development indicated by the accounts for the fourth quarter of last year was the strong recovery of stockbuilding.


2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.


Author(s):  
Jacek Strojny

The aim of the study was to asses the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Polish agro-food sector. The analysis covers period of 2002-2017. There was applied the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. The outcome of the research revealed that permanent deterioration in terms of trade contributed to the current account of Polish agribusiness sector improvement. The temporary effect of terms of trade shocks was not indentified. Additionally, the research enabled recognition of gross value added (GVA) as the most exogenous factor of the VAR system. On the other hand most endogenous factor of the model is the current account. The variable permanent terms of trade is more exogenous factor than the current account.


2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Idrees ◽  
Saira Tufail

According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.


1987 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 6-20

For the first time in more than a decade the question is being asked whether the growth of the UK economy this year may be, in some sense, too rapid. Fears have been expressed of ‘overheating’ leading to a rise in inflation and excessive growth in imports. Comparisons have been made with the ‘boom’ conditions of 1972 and 1973. In our view these fears are exaggerated and the comparisons misleading. Nevertheless some increase in the rate of inflation is to be expected, and the underlying position on the current account of the balance of payments seems already to have moved from surplus into deficit. We now expect the rate of the economy this year to be around 3½ per cent, compared with about 3 per cent in 1986. Thus, if we are correct, the acceleration year on year is very slight, well within the error margins of measurement. This contrasts with 1972 and 1973 when the growth rate averaged 4½ per cent for two years. Moreover unemployment was only about 1 million at the beginning of 1972 and about 1/2 million at the end of 1973 whilst last year it at over 3 million and is not expected to fall as low as 2½ million even next year. Even if inflation next year does rise from about 3½ per cent a year to about 5 per cent, as we expect, this is still not comparable with the rates of 7½ and 9 per cent experienced in 1972 and 1973. The CBI index of capacity utilisation is now not far below its peak level in 1973, but we doubt whether an index of this kind is reliable for comparision between periods so far apart in time.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Zdenka Obuljen Zoričić ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec

AbstractDue to negotiations on accession to the EU, the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe went through the financial opening. In the pre-crisis period followed by high liquidity in global markets, most of the EU new member states experienced rapid credit growth, which conditioned the appreciation of the exchange rate. External imbalances and vulnerabilities built up. Countries experienced deterioration in their current accounts. This paper investigates the link between financial openness, real effective exchange rate, financial crisis and current account balance within the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for 11 new European Union members during the period from 1999 to 2016. The results obtained by the use of pooled mean group estimator (PMG) show that in the long run, financial openness has a significant negative impact on the current account balance. In the short run, crisis significantly influences the current account balance having a positive sign.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-101
Author(s):  
Thomas Davoine

AbstractExplaining cross-country differences in current accounts is difficult. While pay-as-you-go pensions reduce the need to save for retirement, contributions to capital-funded pensions are saved for future consumption. An overlapping-generations analysis shows that capital-funded pensions increase net foreign assets holdings. With a multi-pillar system whose capital-funded part accounts for 18% of pensions, the Austrian current account balance would be 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) higher than with pure pay-as-you-go pensions in 20 years. By comparison, the Austrian current account surplus averages 1.8% of GDP. Empirically, I find that the current account of high-income countries increases with the coverage and replacement rates of capital-funded pensions.


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