Chapter I. The Home Economy

1987 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 6-20
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Current Account

For the first time in more than a decade the question is being asked whether the growth of the UK economy this year may be, in some sense, too rapid. Fears have been expressed of ‘overheating’ leading to a rise in inflation and excessive growth in imports. Comparisons have been made with the ‘boom’ conditions of 1972 and 1973. In our view these fears are exaggerated and the comparisons misleading. Nevertheless some increase in the rate of inflation is to be expected, and the underlying position on the current account of the balance of payments seems already to have moved from surplus into deficit. We now expect the rate of the economy this year to be around 3½ per cent, compared with about 3 per cent in 1986. Thus, if we are correct, the acceleration year on year is very slight, well within the error margins of measurement. This contrasts with 1972 and 1973 when the growth rate averaged 4½ per cent for two years. Moreover unemployment was only about 1 million at the beginning of 1972 and about 1/2 million at the end of 1973 whilst last year it at over 3 million and is not expected to fall as low as 2½ million even next year. Even if inflation next year does rise from about 3½ per cent a year to about 5 per cent, as we expect, this is still not comparable with the rates of 7½ and 9 per cent experienced in 1972 and 1973. The CBI index of capacity utilisation is now not far below its peak level in 1973, but we doubt whether an index of this kind is reliable for comparision between periods so far apart in time.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 7-20
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Business School ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Conflicting Evidence ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Current Account

The forecasts published by ourselves in February, and by the Treasury and the London Business School in March, showed remarkable unanimity about the prospects for the economy in 1988. We all said that the growth rate year on year would be about 3 per cent, that the rate of inflation would be about 4 per cent by the fourth quarter, and that the current account of the balance of payments would be in deficit by about £4 billion. It remains to be seen whether this solidarity can be maintained in the face of the conflicting evidence about the recent performance of the economy from the indicators which have been published in the last three months.

The UK Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 7-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Past ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Current Account

The development of the UK economy over the past four years has been marked by a very favourable and unexpected combination of steady growth and low inflation with prices growing on average at about the same rate as real income. In addition, claimant unemployment has fallen by over 800,000 since its peak at the beginning of 1993 and the current account deficit of the balance of payments has remained small and, somewhat erratically, declined.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The Current Account

Developments so far this year have been closely in line with the forecasts we published in February and in May. As expected, output fell in the first half of the year and the prospect is still for a slight recovery by the end of the year. As expected, inflation has been falling rapidly, and the prospect is still for a rate under 5 per cent by the end of the year. The current account deficit on the balance of payments is much reduced, whilst the public sector again has a borrowing requirement. With the continued slowdown in activity, unemployment has risen sharply, and it is still expected to continue rising in 1992.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Tyshchenko ◽  
Olena Tyshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
The State ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Positive Balance ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Current Account

The article highlights the features of the formation and assessment of the balance of payments in Ukraine. The balance of payments of Ukraine is a functional macroeconomic model that reflects all transactions that are carried out between the subjects of the national economy and the subjects of the economies of other countries of the world. This model allows you to develop and implement a sound foreign economic policy of Ukraine, analyze the state of commodity and financial markets, conduct scientific research of economic processes in the state, etc. Ukraine is actively implementing the methodology of balance of payments formation according to the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine's balance of payments by main components is grouped into two accounts: "capital and financial transactions" and "current transactions": capital transactions cover all transactions related to the receipt or payment of capital transfers and the acquisition or sale of property rights and non-financial assets; current transactions include all transactions between residents and non-residents on real values, as well as transactions on the free provision or receipt of valuables for current use. Like any other "balance of payments" consists of receipts and payments. It is active (surplus) when revenues are greater than payments and passive (deficit) when payments are greater than revenues. Based on the assessment of the balance of payments of Ukraine for 2020, certain conclusions can be drawn: stable external demand for food softened the drop in exports of goods from Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increase in prices contributed to its growth at the end of 2020; despite a slight recovery in domestic demand in the IV quarters of 2020, imports of goods to Ukraine by the results of 2020 decreased significantly; the current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 was provided by a significant positive balance of trade in services and a record surplus of the primary income account; capital outflow from Ukraine on the financial account stopped at the end of 2020 due to the optimism of investors; despite the crisis and significant payments on external debt, Ukraine's gross reserves increased in 2020, and the financial crisis once again confirmed the importance of both international support and a balanced macroeconomic policy. The current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 reached one of the largest levels in the history of Ukraine, it was formed due to a significant decrease in imports of goods and services, a reduction in payments on primary income and the relative stability of exports of goods and remittances. The article proposes recommendations for improving approaches to the formation of the balance of payments in Ukraine using certain methods when regulating the balance of payments of the state.

scholarly journals Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 153-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Howard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
The United States ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The World ◽  
The U.S ◽  
The Current Account

In 1988, the United States recorded a deficit of about $135 billion on the current account of its balance of payments with the rest of the world. This paper presents an analytical framework for thinking about the current account deficit, explores causes of the current account deficit, and discusses the United States as a debtor nation and the issue of sustainability.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Significant Deterioration

Comparing the first half of this year with the first half of 1987, domestic demand rose very rapidly, probably by about 8 per cent. Consumer spending, after accelerating for some years, had reached a rate of growth of around 6 per cent. This was now reinforced by a sharp rise in expenditure on fixed investment, which may have been about 10 per cent over this period. This surge in demand was met by a good response from domestic supply, gross domestic product rising by about 5 per cent. But at the same time the boom conditions contributed to a significant deterioration in the balance of payments. A small surplus on current account in the first half of last year has been turned into a deficit at an annual rate of about £11 billion.

scholarly journals Analysis of Current Account Deficit Determinants of Balance of Payments in Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: A Comparative Study in CFA Franc and Non-Franc Zones

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 447
Author(s):  
Remy Hounsou
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

<p><em>This study compares the impact of certain economic and financial variables on the level of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of the countries of the Franc zone and certain countries of the non-Franc zone situated south of the Sahara. The empirical results of the study based on panel data models covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that none of the two zones behaves better against the current account deficit of the balance of payments and that no zone is more competitive than the other. Finally, it was clear from our analysis that the variables of gross domestic, saving and the change in the terms of trade better explain the change in the current account balance in the Franc zone, whereas the variables of net foreign transfers and gross domestic saving impact the most the current account deficit in non-CFA zone.</em></p>

scholarly journals Występowanie deficytów bliźniaczych w wybranych państwach Unii Europejskiej i w Polsce w latach 2009–2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 157-178
Author(s):  
Izabela , Piotr Cirin Zawiślińska ◽  
Piotr Cirin
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Internal Balance ◽  
The Current Account

The aim of the article is to determine the degree, direction and strength of impact of the studied variables, i.e. the state budget balance and the current account balance as part of Poland's balance of payments in the years 2009-2018 against the background of selected European Union (EU) countries. The main research questions focus on determining the type of relationships connecting the studied deficits in the light of previous studies dedicated to the twin deficits hypothesis. The methodology used is based on integrated correlation analysis, linear regression and an analysis of the coefficient of variation. As a result of the study, a strong correlation was found between the cumulative values of the studied deficits, which confirms the existence of the twin deficits hypothesis in Poland in the examined period and means that the budget deficit affects the current account balance. A change in the cumulative balance of the budget by 1% leads to a change in the cumulative balance of the current account of the balance of payments by 0.89%. It can be presumed that the problem of budget deficits and the related debt crisis as well as balance of payments balances under the dichotomy of "surplus north" and "deficit south" in the next decade will be one of the most conflicting and disintegrative for the EU. Thus, the search for a path to budget (internal) balance and balance of payments (external) is one of the key challenges for maintaining cohesion and maintaining sustainable development both in Poland and the entire EU.

The UK Economy

1998 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 9-26
Author(s):  
Marie Sheldon ◽  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Real Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Building Societies

By almost any criteria 1997 turned out to be a very good year for the British economy. As in the preceding three years, real growth was faster than the rate of consumer price inflation. Unemployment fell very sharply, by almost half a million on the claimant count definition, and around 350,000 mostly full-time jobs were created over the course of the year. The balance of payments showed a surplus on current account of an estimated £4 billion and the fiscal position strengthened significantly. Among the demand components, consumers' expenditure rose by about 4 per cent, largely as a consequence of fast income growth. The windfall payments received by the personal sector on the conversion of some building societies into banks appear to have been mainly saved rather than spent, thereby adding to wealth. Personal sector wealth also benefited from increases in house prices of about 10 per cent and a rise in equity prices of around 20 per cent.

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