Chapter I. The Home Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 5-25

This chapter is in two parts. The first contains a brief account of the current situation and an assessment of the outlook to end-1985. The second discusses the medium-term prospect to 1988.

1984 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 6-26

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1986. The second part looks at the medium term. It begins with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The NIESR econometric model is then used to analyse medium-term prospects for the home economy. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.


1985 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 6-32

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1987. The second part looks at the medium term, beginning with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.


2021 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 02029
Author(s):  
Mikhail Loginov ◽  
Natalia Usova ◽  
Aigerim Baigotanova

The article is devoted to the development of the national financial market and ensuring its stability on the basis of digital transformation. Subject of research: digitalization of the financial market. The aim of the study is to study the theoretical foundations of the financial market and determine the priorities of its development based on the digitalization of services to ensure sustainable development in the medium term. Method of research. in the process of writing, the authors used such methods as analysis, grouping, comparison, and synthesis. Results: 1. The features of digitalization of services provided in the national financial market are disclosed. 2. The mechanism of interaction of the main participants in the digital financial assets market is presented and their characteristics are given. 3. Measures for digital transformation of the national financial services market are proposed, taking into account the current situation in the national economy. Scientific novelty: the mechanism of interaction of the main participants in the digital financial services market was determined, measures for the digital transformation of the financial services market were proposed.


1982 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 6-26

This chapter contains a brief general account of recent developments in the economy and a short-term forecast to end-1984. (A medium-term assessment is given in chapter 3.) Since our last forecast, published in the May issue, we have re-estimated, and in some cases also re-specified, many sectors of our econometric model. This has inevitably changed some of its properties.Two short notes are appended. The first discusses the company sector's current financial position and the implications of the forecast for profitability. The second describes the data on wage settlements which we compile as part of our regular assessment of trends in wages and earnings.


1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 64-74

In Chapter I we considered the prospects for the UK economy until end-1977 on the usual assumptions of ‘unchanged policies’, though with two alternative assumptions about the outcome of the wage-bargaining process for the 1976/77 wage calendar. We argued that with restraint in nominal wages in 1977 there was a prospect of a continued moderate recovery in UK economic activity though there were still serious problems outstanding by the end of 1977—high unemployment and a large current account deficit. We also argued that without restraint in nominal wages the chances of a sustained pick-up in activity looked poor and real growth would be slowing down sharply in the course of 1977. On this latter assumption, medium-term issues barely arise since the UK would be once again plunged into a short-term crisis. In this Chapter, we address the central medium-term issue of what sort of recovery paths could reasonably be expected for the UK economy over the next five years and what implications these prospects have for policy.


1980 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 6-19 ◽  

The focus of interest of macroeconomic policy has been moving away from the short term towards the medium term. Partly this is because the present recession, already deeper than any experienced since the war, seems still to have some way to go, and the question is hotly debated when, and how strongly, a recovery may be expected to come. But, with the new government, there has also been a significant shift in the attitude towards management of the economy. The government's objectives for the medium term, enunciated in the Financial Statement and Budget Report 1980-81, are ‘to bring down the rate of inflation and to create conditions for a sustainable growth of output and employment’. This reduction in the rate of inflation is to be brought about by a ‘Medium-Term Financial Strategy’ which is based on the idea that the role of government should be to announce, and subsequently adhere to, a sequence of declining targets for £M3 and the PSBR.


1981 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 6-28 ◽  

This chapter considers the prospects for the British economy over the next five years. The intention is not to put forward an unqualified set of numbers as a forecast with a strong probability; to do so would be to pretend to a knowledge of the future—of political and world events as well as economic developments—which we could not possibly possess. Our more modest aim is to present a conditional projection, based on ‘unchanged policies’, as a frame of reference for appraising the scale of future problems and the use of economic policies to combat them.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (29(56)) ◽  
pp. 47-50
Author(s):  
A. Popkova ◽  
O. Aksinina

The article is devoted to the analysis of probable risks in the banking industry by methods of theoretical and empirical studies. The authors describe the current situation, the current monetary policy, describes the goals and principles for the medium term.


1982 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 39-51

The short-term outlook on ‘unchanged policies’ presented in chapter I of slow output growth, rising unemployment and little further reduction in inflation is not encouraging. But in order to form a critical view of policies formulated with medium-term objectives in view, it is necessary to look beyond the short term to see whether the economic ills of the recent past and immediate future could prove to be the foundations of lasting prosperity in, let us say, the mid-1980s. In this chapter we assess the economic strategy now being followed, and how the economy is likely to respond.


1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 75-79

The economic forecasts in Chapter I, and the examination of the problems of the medium term in Chapter IV, provide the background for the discussion about the successor policy to the £6 limit. The negotiations with the trade union leaders (and surely at some stage also with the CBI) should cover not simply questions of earnings and prices, but questions of output and employment as well. A useful starting point for discussion would be a set of forecasts with different earnings assumptions, similar to the forecasts for the 6 per cent and 20 per cent case which have been presented in Chapter I. The important point which these alternative simulations make is that a bigger increase in money earnings leads to a short-term gain in real wages net of tax, followed by a longer-term loss which exceeds the short-term gain. It is very hard to persuade people that, collectively, they will be better off with lower than with higher increases in money earnings; but over a longer period it is clearly true.


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