Chapter II. The World Economy

1990 ◽  
Vol 134 ◽  
pp. 22-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Stephen Dulake
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Political Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Gatt Round ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

Our last forecast, which was published in August, was moderately optimistic about prospects for the world economy, and especially for the United States. Since the summer the Yen has risen strongly, the US has begun to look like it is facing a recession, and it is now clear that the united Germany will face a very large Government budget deficit after monetary and political union. Meanwhile prospects for war in the Gulf remain high, and although EC farm ministers have managed to agree amongst themselves about cuts in agricultural subsidies it is not clear that these cuts are large enough either to prevent the GATT round stalling or stop the US erecting trade barriers in retaliation. As a result of all these factors our forecast is hedged around with rather more uncertainties than usual. Table 1 sets out our short-term forecast. We assume that oil prices will peak at $35 pb in the last quarter of 1990, and will then fall to $28 pb by the end of 1991.

United States and Its Challenge to Multilateralism in the Global Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-419
Author(s):  
Krishnakumar S.
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Merchandise Trade

With Donald Trump as President of United States, multilateralism in the world economy is facing an unprecedented challenge. The international economic institutions that have evolved since the fifties are increasingly under the risk of being undermined. With the growing assertion of the emerging and developing economies in the international fora, United States is increasingly sceptical of its ability to maneuvre such institutions to suit its own purpose. This is particularly true with respect to WTO, based on “one country one vote” system. The tariff rate hikes initiated by the leader country in the recent past pose a serious challenge to the multilateral trading system. The paper tries to undertake a critical overview of the US pre-occupation of targeting economies on the basis of the bilateral merchandise trade surpluses of countries, through the trade legislations like Omnibus Act and Trade Facilitation Act. These legislations not only ignore the growing share of the United States in the growing invisibles trade in the world economy, but also read too much into the bilateral trade surpluses of economies with United States and the intervention done by them in the foreign exchange market.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 20-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Indicators

Our February forecast suggested that developments in the short term would be dominated by fears of accelerating inflation and policy responses to them. This has indeed been the case. In Japan, Germany and the US wholesale prices have begun to rise relatively rapidly. Although commodity prices, especially of metals and minerals and of developed country foods, have fallen in recent weeks, at least in dollar terms they remain high and oil prices appear to have hit temporary peaks at the beginning of the quarter. These developments are the result of demand pressure. Our equations for real commodity prices, which were reported in the August 1988 issue of the Review, do have rather strong influences from world industrial production in then. As commodity prices are more timely than figures for demand and output they have often been early indicators of rising demand and we believe that they are currently, and correctly, filling this role.

scholarly journals Towards a Neo-bipolar Model of the World Order: Scouting Game in Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 6-29
Author(s):  
L. L. Fituni
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Economy ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
New World Order ◽  
Global Order ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
General Movement

The article lays out a hypothesis that the global order slides into a new bipolarity in the context of the escalating geo-economic and geopolitical confrontation between the two poles that currently dominate the world - the United States and China. The neo-bipolar construction cannot yet be regarded as an established new world order, but the general movement of the world economy and international relations in this direction is obvious. The neo-bipolar bipolar confrontation manifest itself with varying intensity in different regions of the world. The author argues that at present the peripheral regions which are strategically important for the prospects of competition are becoming an important testing ground for relatively “safe” elaboration of methods and tactics of geo-economic rivalry and h mutual exchange of systemic attacks. Today, Africa has become practically the leading theater of the new bipolar confrontation. The article analyzes the economic, military and strategic aspects of the rivalry between the United States and China on the African continent. It provides a comparative analysis of the new African strategies of the two superpowers adopted at the end of 2018. The author asserts that in the context of the emerging global bipolarity, the strategies of the USA and China represent antagonistic programs based on fundamentally different initial messages. In the case of the US strategy, this is to deter by denial the spread of the competitor’s influence using tough policies, including forceful (while not necessarily military) confrontational actions. While China seeks to neutralize the opposition of the United States and its allies to Beijing’s expansion on the continent and to win the freedom of interaction with any partners in Africa causing minimal direct confrontation possible. Therefore, despite the seemingly “peripheral” importance of the confrontation on the continent, for the establishment of a neo-bipolar world order, the proclamation of the new US regional geopolitical strategy, which focuses on the containment of China in the name of protecting democracy and independence, can serve not only for Africa, but for the whole planet the same milestone signal as Churchill’s Fulton speech for the final advent of bipolarity in the postwar world.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.

The World Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 28-57
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is now quite clear that growth slowed in Europe around the end of 1995, and that it remained low in the first quarter of 1996. However, the most recent information suggests that the slowdown is likely to prove temporary. Early indicators for the second quarter suggest that growth has begun to accelerate, much in line with our forecast published in May. We have made no further adjustment to our forecast for EU wide growth this year, with output still expected to rise by around 1½ per cent this year and around 2¾–3 per cent next year. Recent exchange rate developments should help support demand, as the D-mark, the French franc and other currencies within the D-mark bloc have all depreciated against the dollar in the last few months. A number of economies in Europe appear to have some spare capacity, and can increase output, whilst the US is operating at or above capacity, and a reduction in demand should ease incipient inflationary pressures rather more than it reduces output. The depreciation of the D-mark has been associated with a loosening of monetary policy, with short-term interest rates in Germany being a full point lower than they were a year ago. French short-term interest rates have fallen much more, reflecting the disappearance of a significant risk premium last year. The loosening of policy was timely, and should help offset the deflationary pressures that have come from a slowdown in stock accumulation in both France and Germany and from low investment, especially in Germany.

The Principles and Operation of the Bretton Woods International Monetary System in the Years 1944–1971. The Reasons for Its Collapse

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Klimiuk
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Stability

The subject of the article is an analysis of the role of the US dollar in the development of international trade and the world economy during the period of the Bretton Woods monetary system (1944–1971). The international monetary system existing at that time was, in principle, a gold exchange standard based mainly on the national currency of the United States. However, a relatively small role was also played by other currencies including, in particular, the pound sterling. It should be noted that the Bretton Woods rules did not match the conditions in the world economy which emerged after World War II. The main areas of criticism concerned such assumptions as the maintenance of an official fixed price for gold, or a too narrowly interpreter postulate for the stability of the exchange rate. On the other hand, it should be noted that the introduction of the stability of exchange rates and the abolition of restrictions on payments were fundamentally sound decisions. They led in fact to the minimisation of a risk inherent in international trade and its rapid growth. One should also emphasise the fact that from the very beginning, in the international gold based monetary system there was an internal contradiction (paradox), which eventually led to its collapse. This was namely the fact that the growth in world trade created a growing demand for international liquidity. This was tantamount to a necessity to maintain a permanent balance of payments deficit in respect of the country whose currency was considered the key currency. At the same time, the growing volume of the US currency resulted in an increasing crisis of confidence in the dollar.

scholarly journals The International Monetary and Financial System

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 859-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas ◽  
Hélène Rey ◽  
Maxime Sauzet
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exorbitant Privilege ◽  
International Currencies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Triffin Dilemma

International currencies fulfill different roles in the world economy, with important synergies across those roles. We explore the implications of currency hegemony for the external balance sheet of the United States, the process of international adjustment, and the predictability of the US dollar exchange rate. We emphasize the importance of international monetary spillovers and of the exorbitant privilege, and we analyze the emergence of a new Triffin dilemma.

The World Economy: Effects of Risk Premia Falling Below Sustainable Levels in the US

2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 16-20
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The outlook for the US economy has improved modestly compared to our projections three months ago. This can be attributed largely to the unexpectedly rapid decline in risk premia, while the recovery in world trade appears to be being led by Asian markets, allowing a positive contribution to US growth from net trade in the short term. After a cumulative decline in output of 3.8 per cent in the US in the year to the second quarter of 2009, GDP probably recorded a rise in the third quarter, supported by a rise in consumer spending and a positive impact from net trade. We expect output to decline by 2.8 per cent in 2009 as a whole, and forecast a rise in US GDP of 1.3 per cent in 2010.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 136 ◽  
pp. 34-59
Author(s):  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Jan Willem In't Veld ◽  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The World

GNP growth in the major seven economies continues to decline from the cyclical peak reached in 1988. The latest national accounts statistics show that all major seven economies are now growing more slowly than they did last year, with the United States, United Kingdom and Canada in recession. This slowdown in activity appears to have been caused primarily by the tightening of monetary policy that occurred between 1988 and 1990. Short-term interest rates rose by 4.4 percentage points in Germany between 1987 and 1990, by 3 percentage points in Japan between 1987 and 1990, and by 2.2 per cent in the United States between 1987 and 1989.

The world economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Dirk te Velde ◽  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Uk

The short-term prospects for the world economy appear to have brightened since the beginning of this year. Growth has continued at a rapid pace in the North American economies, helped by the prompt monetary response of the Federal Reserve to the turbulence in the global financial and currency markets in the latter half of last year and renewed vigour in equity prices. GDP in the United States is expected to rise by close to 4 per cent for the third year in succession. Some improvement in growth prospects now appears likely in Europe. After the marked slowdown at the turn of the year economic activity in the Euro Area and the UK appears set to return towards trend rates from the second half of this year, helped by relaxed monetary conditions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document