Modelling urban expansion in the transitional Greater Mekong Region

Urban Studies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 1729-1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Li ◽  
Yehua Dennis Wei ◽  
Kim Korinek
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Mekong Region ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Transitional Countries ◽  
Urban Land Expansion

Urban expansion in emerging urban areas has drawn plenty of attention. The Greater Mekong Region (GMR) has experienced dramatic urbanisation and urban land expansion in recent decades. Based on built-up area data from the World Bank compiled over the 2000–2010 period, this paper integrates geographical, socioeconomic and physical factors to explore the underlying patterns and dynamics of urban land expansion in the GMR. An explicit and critical emphasis is placed on institutional conditions. The growth of built-up areas in the GMR has concentrated heavily in the capital cities and coastal areas. Additionally, the transitional countries have shown more dramatic expansion. The results of multi-level models suggest that urban developments in the GMR are not only sensitive to local contexts, such as distance to coastlines, accessibility factors and population growth rates, but are also closely associated with country-level factors, such as country political systems, and patterns of economic growth and foreign investment. We also find that the demographic measures of urbanisation have more influence in Thailand, while measures of economic growth have more marked impacts in the transitional countries.

scholarly journals Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinli Ke ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Caixue Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Urban Land Expansion ◽  
The Impact

Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1) warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2) the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3) the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4) and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

scholarly journals Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Urban Expansion and the Complex Driving Mechanism: Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration as a Case

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Luo Liu ◽  
Jianmei Liu ◽  
Zhenjie Liu ◽  
Xuliang Xu ◽  
Binwu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Urban Landscape ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
Urban Land Expansion ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Pearl River

Rapid urbanization on a global scale leads to a number of issues such as arable land occupation and ecological degradation. In this context, analyzing the driving mechanism of urban land expansion in complex urban systems facilitates sustainable urban development. Most relevant studies focused on the role of each driving factor and less considered the interaction between different factors spatially and temporally. In order to provide a deep insight into the complex driving mechanism of urban expansion, this study began with an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration in different periods. Then, the driving mechanism of urban expansion intensity (UEI) and urban expansion landscape pattern were analyzed, based on the interaction of different driving factors over space and time. The result showed as follows. (1) During the period of 2000–2008, the overall UEI in the PRD was higher than that of the period of 2008–2015. From 2000 to 2015, the most important source of urban land expansion was farmland, followed by forest land. Meanwhile, the decline in the proportion of outlying expansion type indicated that the urban land has gradually become more compact. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the socio-economic factors had a greater effect on UEI than natural factors. And the interaction between the pairs of factors on UEI during 2000–2008 was significantly stronger than that during 2008–2015. (3) The driving factors of the urban landscape expansion index during the period from 2008 to 2015 were far more powerful than 2000–2008. And the interaction between the pairs of factors on urban landscape expansion index during 2000–2008 was significantly stronger than that during 2008–2015.

scholarly journals Urban Expansion and Farmland Loss in Beijing during 1980–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingjie Hu ◽  
Xiangbin Kong ◽  
Ji Zheng ◽  
Jin Sun ◽  
Linlin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Average Quality ◽  
The Past ◽  
Land Use Efficiency ◽  
Farmland Loss ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Urban Land Expansion

The analysis of urban land expansion and farmland loss is essential to adequately understand the land use change in a rapidly urbanizing China. We found that both urban expansion and farmland loss in Beijing experienced high- and low-speed stages and their spatial patterns were consistent during the past 35 years as most of the newly expanded urban land was converted from farmland. The area of farmland loss by urban expansion in Beijing is 12.6 km2/year, 39.86 km2/year, 23.38 km2/year, and 41.11 km2/year during the period of 1980–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2015, respectively. The urban expansion in Beijing continuously preferred to consume “above average” quality farmland during 1980–2015. Meanwhile, although the urban expansion in Beijing was highly dependent on occupying farmland, the dependence of urban expansion on farmland consumption has declined over time. However, the contribution of urban expansion on farmland loss increased during 1980–2010 and decreased afterward. In order to protect the farmland from urban expansion, we call for more effort to improve the urban land use efficiency with rigid controls over areas of urban expansion.

scholarly journals Monitoring of Urban Sprawl and Densification Processes in Western Germany in the Light of SDG Indicator 11.3.1 Based on an Automated Retrospective Classification Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1694
Author(s):  
Gohar Ghazaryan ◽  
Andreas Rienow ◽  
Carsten Oldenburg ◽  
Frank Thonfeld ◽  
Birte Trampnau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Urban Dynamics ◽  
Random Forest Classification ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
High Level

By 2050, two-third of the world’s population will live in cities. In this study, we develop a framework for analyzing urban growth-related imperviousness in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) from the 1980s to date using Landsat data. For the baseline 2017-time step, official geodata was extracted to generate labelled data for ten classes, including three classes representing low, middle, and high level of imperviousness. We used the output of the 2017 classification and information based on radiometric bi-temporal change detection for retrospective classification. Besides spectral bands, we calculated several indices and various temporal composites, which were used as an input for Random Forest classification. The results provide information on three imperviousness classes with accuracies exceeding 75%. According to our results, the imperviousness areas grew continuously from 1985 to 2017, with a high imperviousness area growth of more than 167,000 ha, comprising around 30% increase. The information on the expansion of urban areas was integrated with population dynamics data to estimate the progress towards SDG 11. With the intensity analysis and the integration of population data, the spatial heterogeneity of urban expansion and population growth was analysed, showing that the urban expansion rates considerably excelled population growth rates in some regions in NRW. The study highlights the applicability of earth observation data for accurately quantifying spatio-temporal urban dynamics for sustainable urbanization and targeted planning.

scholarly journals The Rush to the Peripheries: Land Rights and Tenure Security in Peri-Urban Ethiopia

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Addiswork Teklemariam ◽  
Logan Cochrane
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Rights ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Tenure Security ◽  
Authorized User ◽  
Study Sites

As the global population continues to urbanize, increasing pressure is put upon urban centers and the carrying capacity of the already built-up areas. One way to meet these demands is horizontal expansion, which requires new lands to become incorporated into urban centers. In most cases, this demand is met by converting peri-urban land into urban land as the urban center expands. These processes of expansion into the peri-urban, however, create tension regarding land use and land rights, and may foster tenure insecurity if not well managed. As in many countries, Ethiopia is experiencing extensive urban population growth and the peri-urban areas at the edge of urban centers are under pressure. This study investigates land rights issues and tenure security conditions of peri-urban farmers in the case study sites of Addis Ababa and Hawassa. The findings reveal that urban expansion into the peripheral agricultural lands and the resulting tenure system change has caused intense perceived tenure insecurity among peri-urban farmers. The range of land rights exercised differs in these two sites, as measured by the property rights analytical framework. Peri-urban farmers in Hawassa hold weak owner positions, enabling them to exercise thicker rights. However, peri-urban farmers in Addis Ababa hold weak claimant positions, which is slightly above the operational level right of an authorized user. This analysis suggests that the urban development and expansion strategies adopted by the respective city administrations are impacting land rights of the peri-urban farmers and their tenure security, albeit in unique ways, from which lessons can be drawn about how urban expansion policies can be more appropriately designed and implemented.

scholarly journals Determinants of Urban Expansion and Spatial Heterogeneity in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Li ◽  
Guojun Zhang ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
Yongwang Cao ◽  
Chunshan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Gwr Model

China is the world’s largest developing country and its regions vary considerably. However, spatial heterogeneity in determinants of urban expansion in prefecture-level cities have not been identified. The present study explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of Chinese urban expansion and adopted a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to determine this spatial heterogeneity. The results indicated that China experienced massive urban expansion during 1990–2015, with urban areas growing from 4.88 × 104 km2 to 1.06 × 105 km2, 46.42% of which was distributed in the eastern region. The results of the GWR model revealed the spatial heterogeneity in the determinants of urban expansion. Marketization was vital for urban expansion and had a stronger impact in the developed eastern and southern regions than in the less-developed northern and western regions. Globalization and decentralization bi-directionally affected urban expansion. The constraining effects of physical factors were limited and stronger in the developing northern region than in the developed southern region. Identifying the varying determinants of urban expansion is essential for policy-making in various regions.

scholarly journals Characterizing Urban Expansion Combining Concentric-Ring and Grid-Based Analysis for Latin American Cities

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 444
Author(s):  
Su Wu ◽  
Neema Simon Sumari ◽  
Ting Dong ◽  
Gang Xu ◽  
Yanfang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Concentric Ring ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Ring Analysis ◽  
American Cities ◽  
Grid Based

Spatio-temporal characterization of urban expansion is the first step towards understanding how cities grow in space. We summarize two approaches used in urban expansion measurement, namely, concentric-ring analysis and grid-based analysis. Concentric-ring analysis divides urban areas into a series of rings, which is used to quantify the distance decay of urban elements from city centers. Grid-based analysis partitions a city into regular grids that are used to interpret local dynamics of urban growth. We combined these two approaches to characterize the urban expansion between 2000–2014 for five large Latin American cities (São Paulo, Brazil; Mexico City, Mexico; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Bogotá, Columbia; Santiago, Chile). Results show that the urban land (built-up area) density in concentric rings decreases from city centers to urban fringe, which can be well fitted by an inverse S curve. Parameters of fitting curves reflect disparities of urban extents and urban form among these five cities over time. Grid-based analysis presents the transformation of population from central to suburban areas, where new urban land mostly expands. In the global context, urban expansion in Latin America is far less rapid than countries or regions that are experiencing fast urbanization, such as Asia and Africa. Urban form of Latin American cities is particularly compact because of their rugged topographies with natural limitations.

scholarly journals Urban Land-Use Efficiency Analysis by Integrating LCRPGR and Additional Indicators

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13518
Author(s):  
Chaopeng Li ◽  
Guoyin Cai ◽  
Zhongchang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Land Use Efficiency ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Land Consumption ◽  
The Relationship

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 11.3 is to enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanisation and capacity for participatory, integrated, and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries by 2030. Within that goal, the indicator SDG 11.3.1 is defined as the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate (LCRPGR). This ratio is primarily used to measure urban land-use efficiency and reveal the relationship between urban land consumption and population growth. The LCRPGR indicator is aimed at representing overall urban land-use efficiency. This study added compactness, urban expansion speed, and urban expansion intensity to better reflect the impact of built-up area changes on the overall urban land-use efficiency. In addition, this study combined LCRPGR and the land consumption per capita rate (LCPC) to comprehensively analyse the relationship between land consumption and population growth in existing built urban areas, expanded built urban areas, and total built areas. This study employed three years of urban built-up and population data for 2010, 2015, and 2020 for 338 cities along the Belt and Road region to analyse land-use efficiency. The results show that the average LCRPGR for the period 2010–2015 was 1.01, which is close to the recommended ideal LCRPGR value of 1.0 in the United Nations Human Settlements Programme. For 2015–2020, the LCRPGR was 0.71, indicating that the overall urban land consumption in the study area decreased. This is also supported by the fact that the urban expansion intensity in 2020 was weaker than that in 2015. In addition, according to research on the tendency of changes in the entire urban built-up area, the smaller the urban population, the slower the urban expansion speed, the smaller the compactness, and the increasingly complex the urban borders. In cities where the overall LCRPGR is far from the ideal value of 1, the entire built-up area is divided into existing and expanded urban regions. It was found that the average LCPC value in expanded built-up areas was higher than that of existing built-up areas, showing that as cities developed, the LCPC of the newly developed urban areas was greater than that of existing built-up areas. Meanwhile, the LCPC in the expanded built-up areas showed a decreasing trend over time from 2010 to 2015 to 2020, indicating that land use in the expanded built-up regions tended to be efficient. These findings provide helpful information in decision making for balancing urban land consumption with population growth.

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