Crude Prices – Is Opec Relevant?

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 143-158
Author(s):  
Philip K. Verleger

The next OPEC meeting will occur on the 20th anniversary of the first oil shock. While the 1993 meeting is unlikely to be as dramatic as the 1973 one, its long-run outcome could be just as great. Indeed, this meeting could mark another anniversary – the end of OPEC's influence on crude oil prices. Oil-exporting nations are in deep trouble. A global recession is suppressing consumption growth and frustrating exporter attempts to boost prices. Financial conditions in exporting nations have deteriorated so much that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has attempted to lower Saudi Arabia's credit rating. Political stability in at least three OPEC nations is precarious. Future prospects for oil exporters appear even bleaker. New production from several satellites of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will reach the market within a few years, limiting the increase in OPEC sales, and the FSU's incremental output will be augmented by much larger exports from Iraq, where multinational oil companies may once again play a large role in developing Middle Eastern oil. An oil price surge resulting from turmoil in Nigeria will, ironically, only serve to emphasize OPEC's loss of influence. When a cartel-like organization breaks down, the result is usually lower and more volatile prices, and so political or physical production disruptions have a greater impact on volumes supplied. In the future, these disruptions will occur more often because of the worsening financial situation in exporting countries.

Author(s):  
Vijay SHENAI ◽  
Artem SHCHERBYNA ◽  
Sergei VORONIN ◽  
Dmitriy OLKHOVSKYY

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring in much needed capital, particularly in emerging markets, help improve manufacturing and trade sectors, bring in more efficient technologies, increase local production and exports, create jobs and develop local skills, bring about improvements in soft and hard infrastructure and overall be a contributor to sustainable economic growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With all these desirable features, it becomes relevant to ascertain the factors which attract FDI to an economy or a group of adjacent economies. This paper explores the determinants of FDI in six Former Soviet Union (FSU): Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Russia, Moldova and Kazakhstan. After an extensive literature review of theories and empirical research and using a set of cross-sectional data over the period 1995–2017, an ARDL model is estimated with FDI/GDP as the dependent variable. Inflation, exchange rate changes, openness, economy size (GDP), Income levels (GNI per capita), Infrastructure (measured by the number of fixed line and mobile subscription per 100 persons) are tested as independent variables for explanatory power in long run and short run relationships. Over the period, higher inflows of FDI in relation to GDP appear to be have been attracted to the markets with better infrastructure, smaller markets and higher income levels, with lower openness, depreciation in the exchange rate and higher income levels though the coefficients of the last three variables are not significant. The results show the type of FDI attracted to investments in this region and are evaluated from theoretical and practical view points. Policy recommendations are made to enhance FDI inflows and further economic development in this region. Such a study of this region has not been made in the past. JEL: C21, F21, F23.


Author(s):  
Cihan Bulut ◽  
Fakhri Hasanov ◽  
Elchin Suleymanov

The aim of our study is to examine the impact of the oil revenues on the standard of living in oil-exporting countries of the former Soviet Union and to make policy suggestions based on the obtained findings. It has been explain that resource dependency adjust the structure of these countries' economies, which leads to income inequality compensation changes in different sectors of the economy. Characteristic of resource- rich of post-Soviet oil exporters countries - Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have been analyzed. It has been demonstrated that dependency on resources modifies the structure of these countries’ economies, which leads to income inequality based on employment via a mechanism of labor compensation changes in different sectors of the economy. We are going to employ co-integration and error correction methods in our empirical analysis. Is there a long-run relationship between the oil revenues and the standard of living in oil-exporting countries of the former Soviet Union; What is the role of dynamics of the oil revenues in the standard of living in the short run; What is the magnitude of speed of adjustment from the short-run fluctuation towards long-run equilibrium of the system; What is the direction of long- and short-run causality in the oil revenues - standard of living relationship.


2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 862-863
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard

The debate about the history and future of the welfare state is gradually expanding beyond the advanced industrial countries to encompass the middle-income developing countries and the formerly socialist economies of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union. This debate is particularly interesting in Asia. The newly industrializing countries in that region have had great success in increasing incomes, reducing poverty, and maintaining an equitable distribution of income. At the same time, the countries in the region are highly “globalized”—a factor often associated with increased economic insecurity—and until the 1980s were for the most part ruled by labor-repressive authoritarian regimes. By traditional measures of effort, they also appear to have surprisingly shallow public commitment to social welfare.


Author(s):  
V. Samunnatha ◽  
Choong Y. Lee ◽  
Gulzat Machinova

The purpose of this paper is to identify what youth development programs are needed for the socio-economic development of Kyrgyzstan, and how such programs can be built effectively for the sustainable development of Kyrgyzstan. Since their independence from the Former Soviet Union, virtually all Central Asian countries have faced complex socio-economic challenges in their transition from a command to a market economy. As a consequence, social instability has increased to the level of serious threat to political stability and national security. Particularly, Kyrgyzstan has had people’s revolutions trice since its independence. In those three Kyrgyz revolutions, even though all patriotic Kyrgyz people were parts of relatively peaceful demonstrations against dictators and their corrupt governments, young people who were teens and early twenties made the difference at the critical moments during those two revolutions. Now, Kyrgyz people seem overconfident in believing that they could change anything they don’t like. Especially after the second revolution, many people, especially young people, in Kyrgyzstan have a wrong and dangerous perception that they could have another revolution any time when they feel their demands are not satisfied. However, unfortunately, such demands could not be satisfied completely in a shorter time of their tolerance. If young people’s beliefs about their future will not be realized soon, there will be social chaos virtually everyday continuously, which hurts its socio-economic development in Kyrgyzstan. As the Kyrgyz young people feel have ore socio- political power than ever in Kyrgyzstan, angry and frustrated young peoplein Kyrgyzstan will make lots of noise politically as well as socially. However, history tells us that radical movements, such as revolutions, are not the ultimate solutions in most times for building a healthy society or a prosperous nation. Revolution could sweep the past, but they could not promise a bright future automatically. Building a promising future needs well-developed plans, including youth development programs, by the knowledgeable and competent leadership with visions, and those plans should be carried out one by one in right ways. However, little attention has been paid to such programs in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan should establish well-focused youth development programs and implement them according to its national priority in strategic development of its country. The objective of this paper is to identify what youth programs/activities are needed for socio-economic development in Kyrgyzstan and how to develop such programs/activities effectively in the current situation, and to make some suggestions for successful operations of those programs to encourage all the Kyrgyz youth to play constructive roles in building their country as a socio-economically well-respected country in the world. Цель этой статьи - определить, какие программы развития молодежи необходимы для социально-экономического развития Кыргызстана и как такие программы могут быть эффективно построены для устойчивого развития Кыргызстана. С момента обретения независимости от бывшего Советского Союза практически все страны Центральной Азии столкнулись со сложными социально-экономическими проблемами при переходе от командной экономики к рыночной. Как следствие, социальная нестабильность выросла до уровня серьезной угрозы политической стабильности и национальной безопасности. В частности, с момента обретения независимости Кыргызстан трижды переживал народные революции. В этих трех киргизских революциях, несмотря на то, что все патриотически настроенные киргизы участвовали в относительно мирных демонстрациях против диктаторов и их коррумпированных правительств, молодые люди в возрасте от 20 до 30 лет сыграли решающую роль в критические моменты этих двух революций. Теперь кыргызстанцы кажутся слишком самоуверенными, полагая, что они могут изменить все, что им не нравится. Особенно после второй революции у многих людей, особенно молодых, в Кыргызстане сложилось неправильное и опасное представление о том, что у них может произойти еще одна революция в любое время, когда они почувствуют, что их требования не удовлетворены. Однако, к сожалению, такие требования не могли быть удовлетворены полностью за более короткий срок их терпимости. Если убеждения молодых людей в своем будущем не будут реализованы в ближайшее время, практически каждый день будет происходить социальный хаос, который негативно скажется на социально-экономическом раз- витии Кыргызстана. По мере того как кыргызская молодежь захватывает больше социально-политической власти, чем когда-либо в Кыргызстане, разгневанные и разочарованные молодые люди в Кыргызстане будут создавать много шума как в политическом, так и в социальном плане. Однако история говорит нам, что радикальные движения, такие как революции, в большинстве случаев не являются окончательным решением для построения здорового общества или процветающей нации. Революции могут смести прошлое, но они не могут автоматически обещать светлое будущее. Для построения многообещающего будущего необходимы хорошо разработанные планы, в том числе программы развития молодежи, под руководством знающего и компетентного руководства с видением, и эти


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