What makes a tweet be retweeted? A Bayesian trigram analysis of tweet propagation during the 2015 Colombian political campaign

2019 ◽  
pp. 016555151988605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Casarin ◽  
Juan C Correa ◽  
Jorge E Camargo ◽  
Silvana Dakduk ◽  
Enrique ter Horst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Bayesian Method ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Inverse Regression ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Political Messages ◽  
Political Outcomes

This article proposes the use of computationally efficient inverse regression Bayesian method for analysis of tweet propagation of political messages. Our example focuses on the Colombian case, though our method can be used in any election where social media messaging has a direct impact on political outcomes. We find strong evidence that politicians were able to identify the combination of sensitive words to enhance the probability of retweet of the message, which, in turn, had an impact on political outcomes. The contributions of our work entail: (a) an examination of a neglected unit of analysis (trigram) in a language less studied (i.e. Spanish), (b) based on an innovative Bayesian efficient approach and (c) exploiting the predictive power that retweets have on electoral results as an informational diffusion tool in social media. A practical implication of this new methodology is the possibility to adjust political messages as a means to increase voters engagement in political campaigns.

Using Twitter in Political Campaigns

2019 ◽  
pp. 710-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Sandoval-Almazan
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Twitter Users

Social media has invaded elections in Mexico. However, the power of citizens through the use of this platform is still unknown. Many citizens criticize political candidates using Twitter, others build networks and some others try to collaborate with candidates. This research is focused in understanding this kind of behavior, analyzing the case of the presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) in Mexico who won the presidency with a large participation but without the support of Twitter users. After two online protests against this presidential candidate - #IamnotProletariat and #Iam132 – political image could have been undermined and voters could have thought differently. But this was not the case and despite of this, the candidate won. The challenge to understand this online protest and its link to the political campaign is addressed in this paper.

Winning and losing on social media: Comparing viral political posts across platforms

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 639-657
Author(s):  
Anders Olof Larsson
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Media Use ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Citizen Engagement ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Messages ◽  
Previous Scholarship

Research on social media use during election campaigns has largely focused on Twitter. Building on recommendations from previous scholarship, the work presented here provides comparative insights into party and citizen engagement on several platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube – during the 2017 Norwegian elections. Results indicate that the themes of popular, ‘viral’ posts vary across platforms, suggesting the need to adapt political messages to each specific outlet. The findings are discussed in the light of the suggested ‘analytics turn’ – when political actors can gauge the minutiae of how their online efforts are engaged with, how do those types of insights influence the shape and content of political campaigns?

scholarly journals Political Agonism for Indonesian Cyberpolitic: Critical Cyberculture to Political Campaign of 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election in Twitter

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Heni Gusfa ◽  
Fransiskus Emilus D. Kadjuand
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Real World ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Public Communication ◽  
Third Generation ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Text And Image

In this era of third-generation media, political battles not only occur in the real world but also occur in cyberspace. Various strategies and products of political campaigns using social media have become commonplace in political communication. This happens because along with the disruption of public communication media, conventional campaign ideas and models have also expanded into cyber channels and shaped cyber politics reality. The uniqueness of this research is antagonistic narratives such as hoax, ethnicity, religion, race, intergroup, and provocation in the 2019 Presidential Election political campaign on Twitter from January 1st, 2019 to April 13th, 2019. This research intends to critically analyze the narrative of political campaigns on Twitter using the Agonism Cyber-politic approach. The method used in this research is Multimodal Critical Cyberculture Analysis to analyze the multimodality text (text and image components), Using hashtags to amplificated a political narration, and the antagonism narrations that develops on Twitter by supporting accounts of Jokowi and Prabowo. The results showed that the @jokowi and @prabowo accounts were the accounts with the highest engagement in spreading political campaign narratives on Twitter. The @jokowi account uses optimistic narratives, while @prabowo tends to use pessimistic narratives. Nevertheless, there are so many antagonism narratives like hoax, fake news, propaganda, and politicization of SARA which are specified by anonymous accounts. These antagonistic narratives are more developed in cyber politics discourse on Twitter. The result is horizontal conflict among Indonesian people. The community represented by netizens experienced division and formed two clusters. This fact certainly reduces the meaning of Indonesian democracy which should be substantive to mere procedural. It was found out that the concept of agonistic politics becomes practice of Indonesian democracy, based on the philosophy of the Indonesian nation Keywords: Jokowi, Prabowo, 2019 Presidential Election, political campaign, twitter, cyber politic, Indonesian cyber-democracy ABSTRAKDi era media generasi ketiga sekarang ini, pertarungan politik tidak hanya terjadi di dunia nyata, tetapi juga terjadi di dunia maya. Berbagai strategi dan produk kampanye politik menggunakan media sosial menjadi hal yang lumrah dalam komunikasi politik. Hal ini terjadi karena seiring dengan terganggunya media komunikasi publik, ide dan model kampanye konvensional juga merambah ke saluran siber dan membentuk realitas politik siber. Keunikan dari penelitian ini adalah narasi antagonis seperti hoax, etnisitas, agama, ras, antargolongan, dan provokasi dalam kampanye politik Pilpres 2019 di Twitter dari 1 Januari hingga 13 April 2019. Penelitian ini ingin menganalisis secara kritis narasi kampanye politik di Twitter dengan pendekatan Agonism Cyber-politic. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Multimodal Critical Cyberculture Analysis, bertujuan untuk menganalisis teks multimodal (komponen teks dan gambar), penggunaan hashtag untuk memperkuat narasi politik, dan narasi antagonisme yang berkembang di Twitter dengan mendukung akun Jokowi dan Prabowo. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa akun @jokowi dan @prabowo merupakan akun yang paling banyak terlibat dalam menyebarkan narasi kampanye politik di Twitter. Akun @jokowi menggunakan narasi optimis, sedangkan @prabowo cenderung menggunakan narasi pesimistis. Namun demikian, banyak ditemukan narasi antagonisme, seperti hoax, fake news, propaganda, dan politisasi SARA yang dibocorkan oleh akun anonim. Narasi antagonis ini lebih berkembang dalam wacana politik dunia maya di Twitter. Akibatnya terjadi konflik horizontal dalam kehidupan (politik) masyarakat Indonesia. Komunitas yang diwakili oleh netizen mengalami perpecahan dan membentuk dua kluster. Fakta ini tentu mereduksi makna demokrasi Indonesia yang semestinya substantif menjadi sekadar prosedural. Konsep politik agonistik sendiri sudah menjadi bagian dari praktik demokrasi di Indonesia yang berlandaskan pada falsafah bangsa Indonesia.Kata Kunci: Jokowi, Prabowo, Pilpres 2019, kampanye politik, Twitter, politik siber, demokrasi siber Indonesia

scholarly journals Using Twitter in Political Campaigns

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Sandoval-Almazan
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Twitter Users

Social media has invaded elections in Mexico. However, the power of citizens through the use of this platform is still unknown. Many citizens criticize political candidates using Twitter, others build networks and some others try to collaborate with candidates. This research is focused in understanding this kind of behavior, analyzing the case of the presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) in Mexico who won the presidency with a large participation but without the support of Twitter users. After two online protests against this presidential candidate - #IamnotProletariat and #Iam132 – political image could have been undermined and voters could have thought differently. But this was not the case and despite of this, the candidate won. The challenge to understand this online protest and its link to the political campaign is addressed in this paper.

scholarly journals Hillary Clinton's political campaign communication in the interactive Facebook world

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Megan Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Setting Theory ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Message Strategies

This research uses content analysis to examine the role of social media in modern American political communication. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between different message strategies and level of engagement by focusing on Hillary Clinton's Facebook posts between October 1, 2016, and November 7, 2016, just prior to the campaign election. Agenda-setting theory will be examined in relation to political campaigns' increasing ability to engage voters directly via social media. The number of interactions via Facebook's native buttons will provide a way to measure interactions. It's important to know what message strategies are most effective on Facebook because the more interactions a post receives, the more widely that message has the potential to be distributed via newsfeeds. According to the receive-accept-sample model of information processing, exposure to a message can affect people's opinions and behaviors, so future political campaigns could benefit from the current research by using its findings when determining message strategies.

Bases Loaded

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas Panagopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Political Campaign ◽  
Voter Mobilization ◽  
Campaign Strategy ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
Fundamental Shift

Over the past few decades, a fundamental shift in political campaign strategy has been afoot in U.S. elections: Political campaigns have been gradually shifting their attention away from swing voters toward their respective, partisan bases. Independents and weak partisans have been targeted with less frequency, and the emphasis in contemporary elections has been on strong partisans. This book documents this shift—away from persuasion toward base mobilization—in the context of U.S. presidential elections and explains that this phenomenon is likely linked to several developments, including advances in campaign technology and voter-targeting capabilities as well as insights from behavioral social science focusing on voter mobilization. The analyses show the 2000 presidential election represents a watershed cycle that punctuated this shift. The book also explores the implications of the shift toward base mobilization and links these developments to growing turnout rates for strong partisans and attenuating participation among independents or swing voters over time. The book concludes these patterns have contributed to heightened partisan polarization in the United States.

Does Social Media Engagement Translate to Civic Engagement Offline?

2021 ◽  
pp. 089976402199944
Author(s):  
Jaclyn Piatak ◽  
Ian Mikkelsen
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Civic Participation ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Online Engagement ◽  
Informal Volunteering ◽  
Using Data

People increasingly engage in politics on social media, but does online engagement translate to offline engagement? Research is mixed with some suggesting how one uses the internet maters. We examine how political engagement on social media corresponds to offline engagement. Using data following the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, we find the more politically engaged people are on social media, the more likely they are to engage offline across measures of engagement—formal and informal volunteering, attending local meetings, donating to and working for political campaigns, and voting. Findings offer important nuances across types of civic engagement and generations. Although online engagement corresponds to greater engagement offline in the community and may help narrow generational gaps, this should not be the only means to promote civic participation to ensure all have a voice and an opportunity to help, mobilize, and engage.

How Political Candidates' Use of Facebook Relates to the Election Outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsin-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Political Marketing ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
The Past ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
Online Fans ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between political candidates' use of Facebook and their election outcomes (vote share and election success). The use of social media in political marketing campaigns has grown dramatically over the past few years. It is also expected to become even more critical to future political campaigns, as it creates two-way communication and engagement that stimulates and fosters candidates' relationships with their supporters. Online Facebook data were acquired for all 84 candidates running in a municipal election in Taiwan. Results suggest that a candidate's Facebook presence, the type of account they use, the authentication of the account, and the number of online fans they have are related to their election outcomes.

scholarly journals “It’s Going to be Out There For a Long Time”: The Influence of Message Persistence on Users’ Political Opinion Expression in Social Media

2021 ◽  
pp. 009365022199531
Author(s):  
German Neubaum
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Spiral Of Silence ◽  
Human Communication ◽  
Political Messages ◽  
Opinion Expression ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Silence Effect ◽  
Central Characteristic ◽  
Media Message

In light of the growing politicization of social media, the spiral of silence theory and its predictions on the conditions under which individuals express political opinions have gained increasing scholarly attention. This study contributes to this line of research by identifying the influence of a central characteristic of social media: message persistence. It was expected that high technical durability of political messages reduces users’ propensity to voice their opinion, moderating the silence effect. A pre-registered experiment ( N = 772) revealed a small-to-medium persistence effect in three out of four topical contexts. While perceived congruence with the opinion climate was not associated with the likelihood of opinion expression, the latter could be explained by a mental cost-benefit calculus that was shaped by message persistence. Theoretical implications are discussed referring to (a) a situational approach regarding silencing processes on social media and (b) its connection to a behavioral calculus of human communication.

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