Paying attention and the incumbency effect: Voting behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron A Moore ◽  
R Michael McGregor ◽  
Laura B Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Large N ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Municipal Election

The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are well-established. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters’ engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large- N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate.

Voters Who Abstain: Explaining Abstention and Ballot Roll-Off in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 1081-1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Large N ◽  
Attitudinal Factors ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
The City ◽  
Drive Roll

This article explores the correlates of ballot roll-off in the 2014 Toronto municipal election. While turnout in the mayoral contest was comparatively high, roughly 4.3% of voters abstained from council races. Using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large- N survey of electors conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Election, this study identifies a series of factors related to roll-off from mayoral to council elections. These variables include a number of sociodemographic characteristics and attitudinal factors commonly associated with turnout, measures of attachment to the city, and a series of election-specific factors. Results reveal that many factors commonly associated with abstention similarly drive roll-off, but that the experiences of individual voters also have an impact upon roll-off rates.

scholarly journals Public Opinion Towards Provincial Powers Over Municipalities: The Case of Toronto

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Zhitomirsky ◽  
Michael McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Ordered Logistic Regression ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Municipal Election

This paper will analyze the case of redistricting in Toronto using data collected from the 2018 Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES, n.d). The analysis will explore Torontonian public opinion using multivariate regression analysis in the following areas: support for provincial control over municipal matters in general, and support for the provincially imposed ward redistricting in 2018. Specifically, five central hypotheses will be tested through a series of ordered logistic regression models to determine the correlates of support for the exercise of provincial powers over municipalities and support for such powers using the recent redistricting in Toronto as a case study.

scholarly journals Public Opinion Towards Provincial Powers Over Municipalities: The Case of Toronto

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Zhitomirsky ◽  
Michael McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Ordered Logistic Regression ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Municipal Election

This paper will analyze the case of redistricting in Toronto using data collected from the 2018 Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES, n.d). The analysis will explore Torontonian public opinion using multivariate regression analysis in the following areas: support for provincial control over municipal matters in general, and support for the provincially imposed ward redistricting in 2018. Specifically, five central hypotheses will be tested through a series of ordered logistic regression models to determine the correlates of support for the exercise of provincial powers over municipalities and support for such powers using the recent redistricting in Toronto as a case study.

Disengaging elections? Political interest, number of elections, and turnout in elections to the European Parliament

2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652199845
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Nonnemacher
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
National Study ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
European Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Cross National Study

Since direct elections to the European Parliament began in 1979, variations in voting behavior in European Parliament elections from national elections have raised interesting questions about political behavior. I add to a growing literature that explores turnout in European Parliament elections by focusing on the count of national elections between European Parliament elections. Through a cross-national study of elections, I find that turnout decreases in the European Parliament contest following cycles with numerous national contests. Then, using data from the European Election Study, I argue that this is the result of frequent elections decreasing turnout particularly among already low interest voters who stay home. My findings have implications for how formal rules of multi-level elections shape political behavior more generally and voter fatigue in particular.

What Goes Up Might Not Come Down: Modeling Directional Asymmetry with Large-N, Large-T Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 008117502110463
Author(s):  
Ryan P. Thombs ◽  
Xiaorui Huang ◽  
Jared Berry Fitzgerald
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Directional Asymmetry ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Large N ◽  
Fixed Effects Estimator ◽  
Cross Sectional Dependence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Heterogeneous Panel

Modeling asymmetric relationships is an emerging subject of interest among sociologists. York and Light advanced a method to estimate asymmetric models with panel data, which was further developed by Allison. However, little attention has been given to the large- N, large- T case, wherein autoregression, slope heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence are important issues to consider. The authors fill this gap by conducting Monte Carlo experiments comparing the bias and power of the fixed-effects estimator to a set of heterogeneous panel estimators. The authors find that dynamic misspecification can produce substantial biases in the coefficients. Furthermore, even when the dynamics are correctly specified, the fixed-effects estimator will produce inconsistent and unstable estimates of the long-run effects in the presence of slope heterogeneity. The authors demonstrate these findings by testing for directional asymmetry in the economic development–CO2 emissions relationship, a key question in macro sociology, using data for 66 countries from 1971 to 2015. The authors conclude with a set of methodological recommendations on modeling directional asymmetry.

Did They Mind the Gap? Voter/Party Ideological Proximity between the BQ, the NDP and Quebec Voters, 2006–2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Gauvin ◽  
Chris Chhim ◽  
Mike Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Longitudinal Approach ◽  
The Face ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe 2011 Canadian federal election results changed the face of federal politics in Quebec. In a sudden and spectacular reversal of electoral fortunes, BQ support crumbled while that of the NDP surged. While most commentators focused exclusively on the 2011 election itself to explain what had happened, we offer an interpretation that takes a longitudinal approach. Using data from the Canadian Election Study and political party manifestos from 2006 to 2011, we propose a three-dimensional proximity model of voter/party congruence to explore the evolution of the ideological stances of Quebec voters and parties. Empirical results suggest these ideological distances between the NDP and Quebec voters decreased over time, whereas the BQ has distanced itself from voters. Furthermore, ideological distances between party and voters are a significant predictor of vote.

Competing Visions of Parental Roles and Ideological Constraint

2006 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID C. BARKER ◽  
JAMES D. TINNICK
Keyword(s):  
Power Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Values ◽  
Parental Roles ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Children And Parents ◽  
George Lakoff ◽  
Proper Power ◽  
Using Data

This paper explores the etiology of ideological constraint in the United States. In an effort to gain understanding of the ideational elements of political socialization, we concentrate on a provocative new theory put forward by cognitive linguist George Lakoff. Lakoff argues that many people reflexively envision proper power relations between citizens and government based on their understanding of proper power relations between children and parents: “nurturant” visions of parental roles engender egalitarian and humanitarian political values, whereas “disciplinarian” visions of proper parenting predict political individualism and traditionalism. Using data obtained from the 2000 National Election Study, we consider the empirical mettle of this account.

What Influences Local Voters’ Electoral Choices?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Democratic Theory ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
Normative Expectations ◽  
Knowledge Levels ◽  
Unique Dataset

This chapter examines what individual voters know about local elections and what factors shape their voting choices. After reviewing how and why we might expect that local voting behavior may differ from presidential voting behavior, it examines a unique dataset of over 1400 voters in thirty different smaller communities that focuses on these questions in particular. In line with their “homevoter” identities, most local voters typically have high knowledge levels about candidates and express a great deal of interest in local affairs. But because of this, local voters tend to employ different criteria than national ones. They are far more likely to base their votes on specific issues or incumbent performance and less likely to utilize heuristics like partisanship or candidate charisma, although this varies somewhat with the size, scope, and bias of their community. Local voters are also more likely to embody the normative expectations of the informed and rational citizen of classical democratic theory.

Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 436-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Kuklinski ◽  
Darrell M. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
United States Senate ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Economic Expectations

Past individual-level studies of economic voting (1) have incorrectly operationalized the model they employ by using past-oriented rather than future-oriented questions and (2) have failed to examine the level of economic voting in United States Senate elections. Using the 1978 National Election Study, we show that economic voting exists in Senate but not House elections, presumably due to the differences in electoral context. Even when economic voting occurs, however, there is no guarantee that the public will influence the direction of macroeconomic policy.

scholarly journals That Woman from Michigan: How Gender Resentment Shapes the Efficacy of Stay-at-Home Policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 983-990
Author(s):  
Nicole Kalaf-Hughes ◽  
Debra Leiter
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Female Leaders ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
At Home

AbstractThe United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases, yet many Americans have responded indifferently toward policies designed to combat the spread of the virus. While nearly all 50 states have implemented some type of stay-at-home policy to encourage social distancing, there has been high variation in the degree of compliance. We argue that this variance is partly driven by gender resentment. Gender resentment reduces trust in female political leaders and thus decreases compliance with government policy and recommendations. Using data from SafeGraph and the 2016 American National Election Study, we demonstrate that the effect of stay-at-home policies on social distancing is reduced when gender resentment increases in states with female leaders. However, when gender resentment is low, there is no difference in the effect of policies on behavior. This research has important implications for understanding unseen barriers that can mediate the efficacy of female political leaders.

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