scholarly journals Asymmetric Volatility and Cross Correlations in Stock Returns under Risk and Uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar ◽  
Raj S Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Global Stock

Capital market efficiency is a matter of great interest for policy makers and investors in designing investment strategy. If efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds true, it will prevent the investors to realize extra return by utilizing the inherent information of stocks. They will realize extra returns only by incorporating the extra risky stocks in their portfolios. While empirical tests of EMH and risk-return relationship are plentiful for developed stock markets, the focus on emerging stock markets like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc., began with the liberalization of financial systems in these markets. With globalization and deregulation, the enormous opportunities of investment in South Asian stock markets have attracted the domestic and foreign institutional investors in general, and to reduce their portfolio risk by diversifying their funds across the markets in particular. The efforts are made in this study to examine the cross-correlation in stock returns of South Asian stock markets, their regional integration, and interdependence on global stock market. The study also examines the important aspects of investment strategy when investment decisions are made under risk and uncertainty. The study uses Bombay stock exchange listed index BSE 100 for India, Colombo stock exchange listed Milanka Price Index for Sri Lanka, Karachi stock exchange listed KSE 100 for Pakistan, Dhaka stock exchange listed DSE-General Index for Bangladesh, and S & P Global 1200 to represent the global market. It carries out a comprehensive analysis, tracing the autocorrelation in stock returns, cross correlations in stock returns under risk and uncertainty, interdependency among the South Asian stock markets, and that with the global stock market. The research methodology applied in the study includes application of Ljung-Box to examine the cross-correlation in stock returns, ARCH and its generalized models for the estimation of conditional and asymmetric volatilities, and Ljung-Box as a diagnostic testing of fitted models, and finally correlation to examine the interdependency of these markets in terms of stock returns and expected volatility. The results bring out the following: L-B statistics suggests the presence of autocorrelation in stock returns in all Asian stock markets; however, for the global market, autocorrelations are significant at 15 lags, and thereafter they are insignificant. The significant autocorrelations in stock returns report volatility clustering in stock returns, reject the EMH, and hold that current stock returns are significantly affected by returns being offered in the past. ARCH and its generalized models significantly explain the conditional volatility in all stock markets in question. The study rejects the relationship between stock returns and expected volatility; however, the relationship is significant with unexpected volatility. It brings out that investors adjust their risk premium for expected variations in stock prices, but they expect extra risk premium for unexpected variations. With their entry into the liberalization phase, South Asian stock markets have reported regional interdependence, and also interdependence with the global stock market.

Rational–Irrational Investor Sentiments and Emerging Stock Market Returns: A Comparison from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidika Gulfem Bayram
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between rational and irrational consumer-business sentiments and stock returns in an emerging stock market, Turkey. Consumer and business sentiments are divided into two components: rational and irrational sentiments. Then, the dynamic interactions and the impact of the sentiments on stock returns are examined. The fundamental economic variables used in the study consist of business conditions, economic risk premium, country risk, exchange rate risk, country growth rate, inflation rate, and terms of trade. The results show that Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)-100 index returns are positively and significantly affected by the rational sentiments of both consumers and businesses. JEL Classification: G02, G12, G150

scholarly journals Changes in co-movement and risk transmission between South Asian stock markets amidst the development of regional co-operation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Niaz Khan ◽  
Suzanne G. M. Fifield ◽  
Nongnuch Tantisantiwong ◽  
David M. Power
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
Before And After

AbstractThis paper documents evidence of changes in the co-movement of stock returns and risk transmission among four South Asian stock markets over periods of regional market reform and global market instability. The sample period (1993–2015) is disaggregated into three sub-periods: before and after the establishment of the South Asian Federation of Exchanges (SAFE) and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The principal components investigation and cointegration analysis conclude that the co-movement among stock returns in this region altered amidst a change in the institutional context and global economic uncertainty. Using a tetra-variate GARCH-BEKK model, we find that, after the establishment of SAFE, the interactions among the markets increased through volatility spillovers, but decreased through shock spillovers. In addition, there were more shock and volatility spillovers in the last sub-period as compared to the first two sub-periods, indicating that risk transmission across countries increased during the period of uncertainty. In particular, the Indian stock market was a risk spreader in South Asia after the setup of SAFE and its influence on the regional stock markets increased even further after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

scholarly journals Stock Returns And Volatility İn An Emerging Equity Market. Evidence From Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ndwiga ◽  
Peter W Muriu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Cross Listing ◽  
Daily Returns

This study investigates volatility pattern of Kenyan stock market based on time series data which consists of daily closing prices of NSE Index for the period 2ndJanuary 2001 to 31st December 2014. The analysis has been done using both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. The study provides evidence for the existence of a positive and significant risk premium. Moreover, volatility shocks on daily returns at the stock market are transitory. We do not find any significant leverage effect. Introduction of the new regulations on foreign investors with a 25% minimum reserve of the issued share capital going to local investors (in 2002), introduction of live trading, cross listing in Uganda and Tanzania stock exchange (in 2006) and change in equity settlement cycle from T+4 to T+3 (in 2011) significantly reduce volatility clustering. The onset of US tapering increase the daily mean returns significantly while reducing conditional volatility.

Volatility and cross correlations of stock markets in SAARC nations

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Shachi Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine cross-correlation in stock returns of SAARC countries, conditional and unconditional volatility of stock markets and to test efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach – Stock indices of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are considered to serve as proxy for stock markets in SAARC countries. Data consist of daily closing price of stock indices from 2000 to 2011. Since preliminary testing indicated presence of serial autocorrelation and volatility clustering, family of GARCH models is selected. Findings – Results indicate presence of serial autocorrelation in stock market returns, implying dependence of current stock prices on stock prices of previous times and leads to rejection of EMH. Significant relationship between stock market returns and unconditional volatility indicates investors’ expectation of extra risk premium for exposing their portfolios to unexpected variations in stock markets. Cross-correlation revealed level of integration of South Asian economies with global market to be high. Research limitations/implications – Business cycles and other macroeconomic developments affect most companies and lead to unexplained relationships. The paper finds stock markets to exist at different levels of development as economic liberalization started at different points of time in SAARC countries. Practical implications – Correlation between stock indices of SAARC economies are found to be low which is in line with intra-regional trade being one of lowest as compared to other regional groups. Results point towards greater need for economic cooperation and integration between SAARC countries. Greater financial integration leads to development of markets and institutions, effective price discovery, higher savings and greater economic progress. Originality/value – The paper focuses on EMH and risk return relation for SAARC nations.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Bursa Global Dan Regional Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Bursa Efek Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afriyeni
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Global Stock

This research is aimed to examine the influence of global and regionalindexes for the stock price index in Indonesian Stock Exchange and todetermine the influence of global market stock price indices simultaneouslyor partially represented by three global stock markets to index IDX. As forthe third global stock market Hang Seng is representing Hongkong stockexchange, Nasdaq composite representing the United States Stock Marketand the Exchange FTSE representing Malaysia. This research is a statisticalstudy with data population composite stock price index

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Bursa Global Dan Regional Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ( pada Bursa Efek Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afriyeni
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
Global Stock

This research is aimed to examine the influence of global and regional indexes for the stock price index in Indonesian Stock Exchange and to determine the influence of global market stock price indices simultaneously or partially represented by three global stock markets to index IDX. As for the third global stock market Hang Seng is representing Hongkong stock exchange, Nasdaq composite representing the United States Stock Market and the Exchange FTSE representing Malaysia. This research is a statistical study with data population composite stock price index (CSPI) each - one index per - end of month from September 2005 to August 2012. Simple sampling method used to collect data during the 84 months from September 2005 to August 2012. Processing of data obtained from the following regression equation: Y = - 1696.585-.207 IXIC - 0.058 + 4.689 HSI. From the regression model constant value of - 1,696.585 states if there is no movement of the three independent variables, then the index will be decreased by 1696.585%. IXIC regression coefficient of - 0.207 states that every 1% decrease IXIC index will result in an increase of 0.207% assuming constant HSI and FTSE. HSI regression coefficient of - 0.058 states that every 1% decrease in HSI index will result in an increase of 0.058% assuming HSI and FTSE konstan.Koefisien regression of 4.689 states that every 1% increase in FTSE index will result in an increase of 4.689% assuming IXIC and HSI constant. The results showed that the influence of these three global stock index jointly significant influence but individually only Hang Seng stock index and HSI are affecting the BEI index. Data processing results obtained R Square of 0.934, which means 93.4% movement in the Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index is affected by movements in global and regional indices.

scholarly journals The Impact of different Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Markets in South Asian Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 238-253
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Aisha Imtiaz ◽  
Hina Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact

The crisis of COVID-19 comes with a calamitous economic stance. The South Asian countries experience their nastiest economic performance in the last four decenniums, and a moiety of the countries are falling into recession. This paper checks the impact of the first,second and third waves of COVID-19 outbreak on the stock market indices of all the South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, SriLanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, and Bhutan. The study has utilized the Event Study Methodology and results exhibit that COVID-19 decreases the mean returns of all the stock market indices and increases their volatility,which designates that Corona does influence all the stock markets of South Asia in decrementing their returns and incrementing volatility. Overall, the negative effect of the first wave of COVID-19 is not paramount across all the indices except the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), albeit its second wave did not affect any of the stock market indices significantly. In contrast,the third wave affects the stock markets indices of Pakistan (PSX) and Afghanistan (AFX).

scholarly journals Liquidity and Asset Pricing: Evidence from Indian Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-116
Author(s):  
Sharad Nath Bhattacharya ◽  
Mousumi Bhattacharya ◽  
Sumit Kumar Jha
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Indian Stock Market

In this research article, we present a liquidity premium based asset pricing model and test it in the Indian stock market. Using high-frequency data of stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange, we show that observed illiquidity has a significant negative impact on realized stock returns even after controlling for the up and down market, volatility, and effects of derivatives trading. The illiquidity measure is modified for its time variations, and then the modified measure is used to assess its impact on returns. Using a cross-section of stocks, we show the year wise results of the model and extend it to show that it has some role in explaining returns across industries. Findings show that the down market has contemporaneous systematic risk at higher levels, and the market risk premium is higher in down markets. Finance, utility and real estate sector companies have higher systematic risk in both up and down market and investors of these sectors has relatively higher expected higher returns in comparison to companies from the rest of the segments.

scholarly journals Co-integration of Karachi Stock Exchange with major South Asian Stock Exchanges

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Salleh Nawaz Khan ◽  
Mohamad Saad Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Cross Listing ◽  
The World ◽  
The Subject ◽  
China And Japan

International cross  listing have   amplified  the interest of  academics   and  investors  to the subject  of  co movement among  the  stock  markets of  the world . This  study  investigates the co integration of  Pakistan stock exchange (KSE 100 index) with  major stock exchanges of south Asia . The results reveals that there is no co integration  of  Pakistan’s stock  market  (KSE100  index)  with china and  Japan stock markets.  However   there  is co integration of Pakistan’s stock market (KSE 100 index) with the stock market of India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. 

scholarly journals The Assessment Of Market Risk Premium In South Africa

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The South ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Premium Model

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10pt;" lang="EN-GB">This paper makes use of time-varying parameter GARCH-M model to estimate the risk aversion parameter for the South African stock market. The paper further compares the forecasts performance of a time-varying risk premium model with that of a constant risk premium model in predicting stock market returns on the South African stock exchange. The findings of the paper show that risk premium is time varying and indicate that stock market in South Africa is vulnerable to external shocks. Moreover, the paper finds that the time-varying GARCH-M model outperforms the fixed parameter GARCH-M model in predicting stock returns when short-term forecast horizons are used. </span></p>

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