scholarly journals Comparison of modeled and reconstructed changes in forest cover through the past 8000 years

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 723-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kleinen ◽  
Pavel Tarasov ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Andrei Andreev ◽  
Martina Stebich

Reproducing the tree cover changes throughout the Holocene is a challenge for land surface–atmosphere models. Here, results of a transient Holocene simulation of the coupled climate–carbon cycle model, CLIMBER2-LPJ, driven by changes in orbital forcing, are compared with pollen data and pollen-based reconstructions for several regions of Eurasia in terms of changes in tree fraction. The decline in tree fraction in the high latitudes suggested by data and model simulations is driven by a decrease in summer temperature over the Holocene. The cooler and drier trend at the eastern side of the Eurasian continent, in Mongolia and China, also led to a decrease in tree cover in both model and data. In contrast, the Holocene trend towards a cooler climate in the continental interior (Kazakhstan) is accompanied by an increase in woody cover. There a relatively small reduction in precipitation was likely compensated by lower evapotranspiration in comparison to the monsoon-affected regions. In general the model-data comparison demonstrates that climate-driven changes during the Holocene result in a non-homogeneous pattern of tree cover change across the Eurasian continent. For the Eifel region in Germany, the model suggests a relatively moist and cool climate and dense tree cover. The Holzmaar pollen record agrees with the model for the intervals 8–3 ka and 1.7–1.3 ka BP, but suggests great reduction of the tree cover 3–2 ka and after 1.3 ka BP, when highly developed settlements and agriculture spread in the region.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 2286
Author(s):  
Libo Wang ◽  
Paul Bartlett ◽  
Darren Pouliot ◽  
Ed Chan ◽  
Céline Lamarche ◽  
...  

Global land cover information is required to initialize land surface and Earth system models. In recent years, new land cover (LC) datasets at finer spatial resolutions have become available while those currently implemented in most models are outdated. This study assesses the applicability of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) LC product for use in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) through comparison with finer resolution datasets over Canada, assisted with reference sample data and a vegetation continuous field tree cover fraction dataset. The results show that in comparison with the finer resolution maps over Canada, the 300 m CCI product provides much improved LC distribution over that from the 1 km GLC2000 dataset currently used to provide initial surface conditions in CLASS. However, the CCI dataset appears to overestimate needleleaf forest cover especially in the taiga-tundra transition zone of northwestern Canada. This may have partly resulted from limited availability of clear sky MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) images used to generate the CCI classification maps due to the long snow cover season in Canada. In addition, changes based on the CCI time series are not always consistent with those from the MODIS or a Landsat-based forest cover change dataset, especially prior to 2003 when only coarse spatial resolution satellite data were available for change detection in the CCI product. It will be helpful for application in global simulations to determine whether these results also apply to other regions with similar landscapes, such as Eurasia. Nevertheless, the detailed LC classes and finer spatial resolution in the CCI dataset provide an improved reference map for use in land surface models in Canada. The results also suggest that uncertainties in the current cross-walking tables are a major source of the often large differences in the plant functional types (PFT) maps, and should be an area of focus in future work.


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (15) ◽  
pp. 5561-5573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marysa M. Laguë ◽  
Abigail L. S. Swann

Abstract Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and nonlinear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover in the northern midlatitudes is systematically evaluated. This study shows that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern midlatitudes determines the local climate response in a nonlinear fashion, and the authors identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks—a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. This study shows how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased. The results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate effects of large-scale vegetation change and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and resulting climate impacts.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 4183-4221 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Valsecchi ◽  
M. F. Sanchez Goñi ◽  
L. Londeix

Abstract. High-resolution pollen analysis of core MD01-2430 from the Sea of Marmara (40°47.81′ N, 27°43.51′ E) allows us to reconstruct the vegetation response to climatic changes during the past 23 cal ka in the Northeastern Mediterranean. Variation in mesic/temperate forest cover indicates major climatic shifts connected to Heinrich Stadial 1, Bölling-Allerød, Younger Dryas and to the onset of the Holocene. Pollen-anthropogenic indicator approach was used to recognize human-induced landscape changes in the Sea of Marmara. The pollen-inferred onset of the Holocene occurs at ca. 11.5 cal ka, indicating that the Northeastern Mediterranean region represents a transitional zone where higher moisture availability supported an earlier forest expansion than the borderlands of the Aegean Sea and Black Sea. Three major forest retreats occurred during the Holocene at ca. 9.2, 5.5, and 2.1 cal ka while a weaker forest setback was detected at 7.9 cal ka. The Holocene forest setbacks are in phase with previously published alkenone-inferred sea-surface temperature decreases in the Sea of Marmara (core MD01-2430) reconstructed from the same archive. Our new pollen record testifies the sensitivity of Mediterranean forests to changes in moisture availability which is driven by changes in high-latitude climate drivers (North Atlantic Oscillations and/or Siberian High).


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1973-1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Joannin ◽  
E. Brugiapaglia ◽  
J.-L. de Beaulieu ◽  
L. Bernardo ◽  
M. Magny ◽  
...  

Abstract. A high-resolution pollen record from Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria (southern Italy) provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial organic material. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a beech woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophyllous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1) a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2) the Modern Analogue Technique, the pollen data collected at Lago Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1) lake depth and (2) annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal BP, responsible for a marked decline in timberline altitude and possibly equivalent to the PBO, remains to be confirmed by further investigations verifying both chronology and magnitude. Two cold and possibly drier Boreal oscillations developed at ca. 9800 and 9200 cal BP. At Trifoglietti, the 8.2 kyr event corresponds to the onset of cooler and drier climatic conditions which persisted until ca. 7500 cal BP. Finally, the second half of the Holocene was characterised by dry phases at ca. 6100–5200, 4400–3500, and 2500–1800 cal BP, alternating with more humid phases at ca. 5200–4400 and ca. 3500–2500 cal BP. Considered as a whole, these millennial-scale trends and centennial-scale climatic oscillations support contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes recognised between the north- and south-central Mediterranean.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 5505-5536
Author(s):  
L. S. Kuchment ◽  
P. Romanov ◽  
A. N. Gelfan ◽  
V. N. Demidov

Abstract. A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE), accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with a special focus on forest cover effects. The model was first calibrated against available ground-based snow measurements and then was applied to calculate the spatial distribution of snow characteristics using satellite data and interpolated ground-based meteorological data. The remote sensing data used in the model consist of products derived from observations of MODIS and AMSR-E instruments onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. They include daily maps of snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), land surface temperature, and weekly maps of surface albedo. Maps of land cover classes and tree cover fraction derived from NOAA AVHRR were used to characterize the vegetation cover. The developed technique was tested over a study area of approximately 200 000 km2 located in the European part of Russia (56° N to 60° N, and 48° E to 54° E). The study area comprises the Vyatka River basin with the catchment area of 124 000 km2. The spatial distributions of SWE, obtained with the coupled model, as well as solely from satellite data were used as the inputs in a physically-based model of runoff generation to simulate runoff hydrographs on the Vyatka river for spring seasons of 2003, 2005. The comparison of simulated hydrographs with the observed ones has shown that suggested procedure gives a higher accuracy of snow cover spatial distribution representation and hydrograph simulations than the direct use of satellite SWE data.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 2223-2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Joannin ◽  
E. Brugiapaglia ◽  
J.-L. de Beaulieu ◽  
L. Bernardo ◽  
M. Magny ◽  
...  

Abstract. A high-resolution pollen record from Lake Trifoglietti in Calabria (Southern Italy) provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the Southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial macro-remains. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected Southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophilous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal. BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal. BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal. BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1) a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2) the modern analogue technique, the pollen data collected at Lake Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1) lake depth and (2) annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal. BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal. BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal. BP, responsible for a marked decline in timberline altitude and possibly equivalent to the PBO, remains to be confirmed by further investigations verifying both chronology and magnitude. Two cold and possibly drier Boreal oscillations developed at ca. 9800 and 9200 cal. BP. At Trifoglietti, the 8.2 kyr event corresponded at Trifoglietti to the onset of cooler and drier climatic conditions which persisted until ca. 7500 cal. BP. Finally, the second half of the Holocene was characterised by dry phases at ca. 6100–5200, 4400–3500, and 2500–1800 cal. BP, alternating with more humid phases at ca. 5200–4400 and ca. 3500–2500 cal. BP. Considered as a whole, these millennial-scale trends and centennial-scale climatic oscillations support contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes recognised between the North- and South-Central Mediterranean.


2021 ◽  
Vol 193 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Titta Majasalmi ◽  
Miina Rautiainen

AbstractForest extent mapping is required for climate modeling and monitoring changes in ecosystem state. Different global land cover (LC) products employ simple tree cover (referred also as “forest cover” or even “vegetation cover”) definitions to differentiate forests from non-forests. Since 1990, a large number of forest extent maps have become available. Although many studies have compared forest extent data, they often use old data (i.e., around the year 2000). In this study, we assessed tree cover representations of three different annual, global LC products (MODIS VCF (MOD44B, Collection 6 (C6)), MCD12Q1 (C6), and CCI LC (v.2.1.1)) using the Finnish Multi-Source National Forest Inventory (MS-NFI) data for the year 2017. In addition, we present an intercomparison approach for analyzing spatial representations of coniferous and deciduous species. Intercomparison of different LC products is often overlooked due to challenges involved in non-standard and overlapping LC class definitions. Global LC products are used for monitoring changes in land use and land cover and modeling of surface fluxes. Given that LC is a major driver of global change through modifiers such as land surface albedo, more attention should be paid to spatial mapping of coniferous and deciduous species. Our results show that tree cover was either overestimated or underestimated depending on the LC product, and classification accuracy varied between 42 and 75%. Intercomparison of the LC products showed large differences in conifer and deciduous species spatial distributions. Spatial mapping of coniferous and deciduous tree covers was the best represented by the CCI LC product as compared with the reference MS-NFI data.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1941-1956 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Valsecchi ◽  
M. F. Sanchez Goñi ◽  
L. Londeix

Abstract. High-resolution pollen analysis of core MD01-2430 from the Sea of Marmara (40°47.81' N, 27°43.51' E) allows us to reconstruct the vegetation response to climatic changes during the past 23 cal ka in the Northeastern Mediterranean. Variation in mesic/temperate forest cover indicates major climatic shifts connected to Heinrich Stadial 1, Bölling-Allerød, Younger Dryas and to the onset of the Holocene. Pollen–anthropogenic indicator approach was used to recognize human-induced landscape changes in the Sea of Marmara. The pollen-inferred onset of the Holocene occurs at ca. 11.5 cal ka, indicating that the Northeastern Mediterranean region represents a transitional zone where higher moisture availability supported an earlier forest expansion than the borderlands of the Aegean Sea and Black Sea. Two major forest retreats occurred during the Holocene at ca. 5.5 and 2.1 cal ka. The Holocene forest setbacks are in phase with previously published alkenone-inferred sea-surface temperature decreases in the Sea of Marmara reconstructed from the same core. Our new pollen record testifies the sensitivity of Mediterranean forests to changes in moisture availability, which is driven by changes in high-latitude atmospheric processes (North Atlantic Oscillations and/or Siberian High).


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 3226
Author(s):  
Daniel Cunningham ◽  
Paul Cunningham ◽  
Matthew E. Fagan

Global tree cover products face challenges in accurately predicting tree cover across biophysical gradients, such as precipitation or agricultural cover. To generate a natural forest cover map for Costa Rica, biases in tree cover estimation in the most widely used tree cover product (the Global Forest Change product (GFC) were quantified and corrected, and the impact of map biases on estimates of forest cover and fragmentation was examined. First, a forest reference dataset was developed to examine how the difference between reference and GFC-predicted tree cover estimates varied along gradients of precipitation and elevation, and nonlinear statistical models were fit to predict the bias. Next, an agricultural land cover map was generated by classifying Landsat and ALOS PalSAR imagery (overall accuracy of 97%) to allow removing six common agricultural crops from estimates of tree cover. Finally, the GFC product was corrected through an integrated process using the nonlinear predictions of precipitation and elevation biases and the agricultural crop map as inputs. The accuracy of tree cover prediction increased by ≈29% over the original global forest change product (the R2 rose from 0.416 to 0.538). Using an optimized 89% tree cover threshold to create a forest/nonforest map, we found that fragmentation declined and core forest area and connectivity increased in the corrected forest cover map, especially in dry tropical forests, protected areas, and designated habitat corridors. By contrast, the core forest area decreased locally where agricultural fields were removed from estimates of natural tree cover. This research demonstrates a simple, transferable methodology to correct for observed biases in the Global Forest Change product. The use of uncorrected tree cover products may markedly over- or underestimate forest cover and fragmentation, especially in tropical regions with low precipitation, significant topography, and/or perennial agricultural production.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 959
Author(s):  
Benjamin Clark ◽  
Ruth DeFries ◽  
Jagdish Krishnaswamy

As part of its nationally determined contributions as well as national forest policy goals, India plans to boost tree cover to 33% of its land area. Land currently under other uses will require tree-plantations or reforestation to achieve this goal. This paper examines the effects of converting cropland to tree or forest cover in the Central India Highlands (CIH). The paper examines the impact of increased forest cover on groundwater infiltration and recharge, which are essential for sustainable Rabi (winter, non-monsoon) season irrigation and agricultural production. Field measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) linked to hydrological modeling estimate increased forest cover impact on the CIH hydrology. Kfs tests in 118 sites demonstrate a significant land cover effect, with forest cover having a higher Kfs of 20.2 mm hr−1 than croplands (6.7mm hr−1). The spatial processes in hydrology (SPHY) model simulated forest cover from 2% to 75% and showed that each basin reacts differently, depending on the amount of agriculture under paddy. Paddy agriculture can compensate for low infiltration through increased depression storage, allowing for continuous infiltration and groundwater recharge. Expanding forest cover to 33% in the CIH would reduce groundwater recharge by 7.94 mm (−1%) when converting the average cropland and increase it by 15.38 mm (3%) if reforestation is conducted on non-paddy agriculture. Intermediate forest cover shows however shows potential for increase in net benefits.


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