scholarly journals Socio-economic Scenario of South Asia: An Overview of Impacts of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-37
Author(s):  
Arti Yadav ◽  
Badar Alam Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
The South ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Short Run ◽  
South Asian Region

The present study explores the socio-economic scenario of the South Asian region before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses the long run and short-run association between human development, unemployment and the economic growth of the region using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model before the situation of the pandemic. It was found that human development has both short-run and long-run association, while the unemployment level has only a long run association with economic growth of the South Asian region. The study suggests that maintaining quality and growth sustainability during and after the pandemic situation will ultimately depend on the human development aspects of the region in terms of appropriate fiscal and monetary policy, vocational training, increased dependence on domestic production and consumption.

Foreign aid and growth nexus: empirical evidence from South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nihar Ranjan Jena ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effectiveness of foreign aid in improving economic growth prospects in the South Asian region from 1996 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachA sample of eight South Asian countries for the period 1996–2017 is being considered for this study. This study uses various econometrics tools such as Pedroni and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration test, panel fully modified ordinary least square and panel dynamic ordinary least square (PDOLS) to ascertain the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables under consideration.FindingsThe empirical results found that long-run, as well as the short-run relationship, exist among foreign aid, economic growth, investment, financial deepening, price stability and trade openness of the South Asian economies. The authors also found unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth. Both the long-run relationship as well as short-run causality between foreign aid and economic growth is unequivocally positive.Originality/valueThis study uses a dynamic macroeconomic modeling framework to assess the impact of aid flows on economic growth in South Asian economies. Taking into account the diversity of level of growth experienced by the eight countries in the Asian region, this study uses an appropriate regression technique, i.e. PDOLS whose results are robust. Therefore, the policymakers in these countries are well-advised to implement suitable policy measures to ensure optimum utilization of foreign capital resources garnered by way of receipt of foreign aid and build on for stronger future economic growth.

scholarly journals Investigating Okun’s Law in SAARC Countries: An ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Abu Hanif ◽  
Zobayer Ahmed ◽  
Hakan Acet ◽  
Savaş Çevik
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
The South ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
South Asian Region

Abstract Purpose: The aim of this paper is to test the applicability of Okun’s law in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) counties. It also intends to find the long-run association between unemployment rate and growth rate and investigate the impact of growth rate on unemployment in the South Asian Region.Design/methodology/approach: The study uses annual time series data for eight SAARC countries, from 1991 to 2015. To meet the objectives of the research, the graphical illustration of trend with descriptive statistics are followed by econometric analysis. Based on the stationarity of the variables, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model has been estimated to test the long-run relationship between unemployment and growth.Findings: The results indicate that per capita GDP negatively influences the unemployment rate in the long run only in three member countries of SAARC, namely- Afghanistan, India and Sri Lanka and in the South Asian Region in aggregate. This paper also finds a negative relationship between the growth rate and unemployment rate in Bangladesh, but this association is not statistically significant. The study doesn’t find any negative relationship between the two variables in Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan. The study discovers the validity of Okun’s law, but the attained Okun coefficient is less than that of the actual Okun coefficient, documented by Arthur Okun. Another substantial evidence is that the significance of the connection between the growth rate and unemployment rate varies among the SAARC countries.Research limitations: The main limitation of this paper is the unavailability of data for Afghanistan compared to other SAARC countries. Originality/value: This paper is unique as it tests the validity of Okun’s law in every member country of SAARC and as a region of South Asia. To date, no such study like this has been found in the body of literature which finds long-run relationship in all SAARC countries.JEL Classification: E24, J64, O11, O40.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Climate change, regulatory policies and regional cooperation in South Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Zafarullah ◽  
Ahmed Shafiqul Huque
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
South Asian Region

Purpose With climate change and environmental degradation being major issues in the world today, it is imperative for governments within a regional setting to collaborate on initiatives, harmonize their policies and develop strategies to counter threats. In South Asia, several attempts have been made to create a common framework for action in implementing synchronized policies. However, both political and technical deterrents have thwarted moves to accommodate priorities and interests of collaborating states. The purpose of this paper is to assess these issues and existing policies/strategies in selected South Asian countries and evaluate integrated plans of action based on collaborative partnerships. Design/methodology/approach Using a broad exploratory and interpretive approach, this paper evaluates how harmonization of environmental principles and synergies among countries can help reduce the effect of climate change and environmental hazards. Based on a review of ideas and concepts as well as both primary and secondary sources, including official records, legislation, inter-state and regional agreements, evaluation reports, impact studies (social, economic and ecological), and commentaries, it highlights several initiatives and processes geared to creating environmental protection standards and practices for the South Asian region. Findings Climate change has resulted in devastating impacts on people. It contributed to the proliferation of climate refugees and high incidence of poverty in South Asia. The region faces both political and technical obstacles in developing a sustainable approach to combat climate change. This is exacerbated by non-availability of information as well as reluctance to acknowledge the problem by key actors. The best strategy will be to integrate policies and regulations in the various countries of the region to develop strategic plans. The approach of prevention and protection should replace the existing emphasis on relief and rehabilitation. Originality/value The paper provides a critical overview of the climatic and environmental problems encountered in the South Asian region and provides pointers to resolving shared problems through the use of policy instruments for regulating the problems within the gamut of regional environmental governance. It attempts to identify solutions to offset regulatory and institutional barriers in achieving preferred results by emphasizing the need for redesigning regulatory structures and policy approaches for ecological well-being.

scholarly journals Importance of Confidence Building Measures for bridging the gap between Pakistan & India

2020 ◽  
Vol V (IV) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tasleem Ashraf ◽  
Ali Shan Shah ◽  
Abdul Basit Khan
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Academic Work ◽  
The South ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
High Tension ◽  
South Asian Region

This research would base on the detailed investigations and steps taken by both countries to build confidence and trust to meet their conflicts and reducing uncertainty and promoting peace. This research will also point out the achievement of confidence building measures which has made possible both sides to start talks to meet the bilateral issues of both sides. The study will examine the importance of CBMs to reduce high tension between India and Pakistan which has made the south Asian region regional peace in danger. The study has also examined the academic work to realize the importance of good relations between the two neighboring nations having the long common border and mutual disputes since independence.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

scholarly journals Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-examination of FDI and Growth in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 94-113
Author(s):  
ANH PHẠM THẾ ◽  
ĐÀO NGUYỄN THỊ HỒNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study examines the econometric and empirical evidence of both causal and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Vietnam, covering a time span of 21 years from 1991 to 2012. The recent and robust methodology of bounds testing or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach to Cointegration is employed for the empirical analysis. This technique can capture both short-run and long-run dynamics of variables, particularly in small sample size cases. The findings indicate the existence of a Cointegration relationship between the two time series and a modest adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Further results from Granger causality tests conducted within the error correction model confirm a bi-directional causality between economic growth and FDI over the study period.

scholarly journals What Leads to Intra-Industry Trade between Sri Lanka and South Asia?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thilini Saparamadu ◽  
Nesrine Akrimi
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The South ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
South Asian Region

This study ascertains the determinants of Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) with particular reference to IIT between Sri Lanka and its major trading partners in South Asia; namely; India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The study uses secondary data published in World Development Indicators, Penn World Table from 1992 to 2017. The level of IIT is calculated by using data gathered from Comtrade Data Base. Using panel data regression, the study adopts Random Effect model to analyze the regression results. The study concludes that economies of scale measured by difference of value added in the net output of the manufacturing sector and market size measured by average gross domestic product exert a significant influence on the level of IIT in the South Asian region. Differences of per capita Gross National Income (GNI - difference in income level) and tariff rate (the proxy for trade barriers) poses a negative influence on the level of IIT. The policymakers should be concerned about the possibility to increase IIT in the South Asian region. Based on the findings of the study, the present research offers policy recommendations to promote IIT within the region.

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